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Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:04:00 - [121]
 

Its still not to late to enter cuz its going to 45k-60k/pu and that's the minimum.Nobody that is making it will bother selling it at produce price.

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:16:00 - [122]
 

Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 18:22:12
Originally by: mental maverick
stuff


The problem is you're mixing two conversations into one.

The last 2-3 pages have been mostly about how I value and calculate my own personal time. It's actually been pretty detrailing all things considered.

None the less, the whole "Value of time" started back on page 3 post 67 As you can see I replied to Kieselguhr Kid who said and I quote

Originally by: Kieselguhr Kid
"It doesn't matter what it costs to produce if you buy the items, because my time is free"


That's actually the single point in which the discussion has turned into TWO different points. On post 71, Kieselguhr Kid actually said "you are correct; using this calculation, your time is not free." It actually tried to go a different route again at that point, when he introduced the "I'm making P3 instead of selling the more profitable P2" people then commented on how onlu 900K per hour is so little. The discussion actually went on this line not even really mentioning Guidance Systems just how time little 900K is all the way till I attempted to bring the discussion back to Guidance Systems on post 87 Which didn't even mention Time value and the sheet I had created at the time didn't even include any concept of it.

However, this doesn't stop people harping on how I value time. Maria Yumeno and I have been trying to keep the thread about Guidance System actually discussing setups and logistics chains for Planets to make Guidance Systems the most optimal way. The whole time not even mentioning anything to do with the value of time.

Post 99, yet again another Goon talking about profitability but it's more of a troll on how the P2s are worth more, even though that "tertiary" discussion ended 28 posts before hand, goons in their sheep ways posted for 5 posts about it, I simply ignored them.

Then RAW comes in fires up a question about how I value time, in his post he doesn't even mention anything to do with PI, just literally wants to know why I value my time that way. The thread is detailed again, despite almost a page of Maria Yumeno and I talking about Guidance Systems planets and their optimal setups. Actually from that point PI is not even the focus of discussion it's just about how time is valued.

Now there is a real LOOSE connection to PI, but it's like everyone talking hypothetically about how time should be calculated and using the original number I spat out about how profitable Guidance Systems are. No where is it really stated that value of time was included as part of PI profitability. That's actually kinda dangerous because people do value their time differently.

I don't know how you value your time, I really don't care so I'm not going to tell you how you should value you time. What I can tell you is, if you build Guidance Systems and when you go to sell them here is what you could make. I'm always careful to not assume anyone's value of time. In fact the PI Profitability is totally missing value of time, how many clicks it would it take, how much hauling, how much market activity.

You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second, but I have to tell ya, You're also detrailing it now. Of cause I accept full responsibility for assisting in the detailing by continuing to reply to yours, RAW's and anyone who questions how I value my time personally. Twisted Evil YARRRR!!

Sol Fallstaff
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:26:00 - [123]
 

Edited by: Sol Fallstaff on 09/07/2010 18:26:53
Why would anyone want to make it at the price its currently at ?, if you did need some for production you'd be better off using the raw materials to build another item in the same tier which is selling for a decent price and buying the Guidance Systems you need.. least this way you'll get a lot more of them than you would by making them

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:32:00 - [124]
 

Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 18:32:53
Originally by: Sol Fallstaff
Why would anyone want to make it at the price its currently at ?, if you did need some for production you'd be better off using the raw materials to build another item in the same tier which is selling for a decent price and buying the Guidance Systems you need.. least this way you'll get a lot more of them than you would by making them


You wouldn't, there is plenty of other things that are better. But if you wanted to, you'd have to do what I did and find out how much it'll make a month. I pointed this out long ago, but as usually the real useful information is lose in a sea of trolls.

This is why I suggested if you where going to make these you should use a supply chain with a stop-gap. Like a Production planet in which you build the P1/P2 then P3 later. You never know at any time the Goons dreams could come true and these thing are worth 100K a piece in which you could easily switch to making these thing. But until that point the best thing would be literally use stop-gap so the P2s are not automatically fed into the Advance Processor.

That's what I've kinda recommended, but the whole point is. If someone WAS to make them now, how much profit could they get. Well the sheet I created is now broken because I played with it too much so don't use that. Use your own calculation.

Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:42:00 - [125]
 

Originally by: SencneS
You never know at any time the Goons dreams could come true


I would just like to point out, I am not a goon, or the alt of a goon.

Just someone who looked at the market and wondered what the hell was going on.

Kieselguhr Kid
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:46:00 - [126]
 

Originally by: SencneS

However, this doesn't stop people harping on how I value time. Maria Yumeno and I have been trying to keep the thread about Guidance System actually discussing setups and logistics chains for Planets to make Guidance Systems the most optimal way.


How to make GS in the most optimal way:

1)buy them from the market for anything under 44k a unit rather than lose money producing them

you're welcome

Phoebe Halliwel
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:48:00 - [127]
 

SencneS, if those posts were about how you value your time; either assert that and walk away or engage in a dialogue and expect criticism, you don't have to take criticisms personally.

People who post "their formula" for activity tend to imply theirs is either the best way, or optimal, then rationalise why or ask for feedback. Problem seems to be here, other people comment to you that yours appears irrational, and you are unwilling to accept it except by stating it's personal preference, then going into more detail to explain your rationale. There's nothing to debate then is there? If you want to debate it, take the criticism on board, if not just stop posting to justify yourself. No one else has really had opportunity to post their formula for calculating PI profitability in terms of time spent active/inactive because the discussion is almost a monologue from you.

I've used a few irrational formulas myself on occasion, others probably do, but it's not worth posting them on the eve-o forums, as they wont get any constructive feedback and I'm not interested in any in the first place. If it works for me that's all I need. Who cares what other people think, do you really need their approval either way? Can't really use a personal standard to debunk someone else's argument.... if it makes no sense to anyone else or they refuse to accept it's validity.

pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:55:00 - [128]
 

Originally by: SencneS

You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second


Can I please get an honorable mention for my top of page 2 post? Come on man.

Your isk/hour estimate is shortsighted because you fail to take into account the real value of the intermediates you produce -- and own. Say it's a 2 step process, state 1-->2-->3. You are calculating profits for the process "1-->3". But it's possible to calculate profits for "1-->2" and "2-->3". When "2-->3" is negative, you really should just stop at "1-->2" unless you want to make profits disappear (like ebank did with its investors' isk).

This has been stated about 5 different ways but you seem to refuse to come to terms with it.

Time2Whine
Posted - 2010.07.09 18:59:00 - [129]
 

Originally by: SencneS

You can thank Kieselguhr Kid for derailing the thread the first time, RAW23 for derailing it the second


This thread would be doing a lot better if you gave up trying to save face in it... just sayin'...

mental maverick
Percussive Diplomacy
Posted - 2010.07.09 19:27:00 - [130]
 

As I said before, I cba to cross reference everything you posted SencneS as my only means of internet is currently my phone and its a pita to do.

But pls, for the love of god man, read your posts again on pages 2 and 3. I get the feeling you only see the parts of your, and others, posts that is of benefit to you in your argument.

Way before anybody was questioning your way of valuing time you clearly stated that you thought 20k GSs wasn't a possibility and proceeded to use your own planet setup to back it up.

How is it that you don't see this? I'm really at a loss here as to how to explain the flaws in your argument. It's like your deaf to anything else but your own voice, and even then you only hear what you want to hear.

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.07.09 19:41:00 - [131]
 

Originally by: Phoebe Halliwel
SencneS, if those posts were about how you value your time; either assert that and walk away or engage in a dialogue and expect criticism, you don't have to take criticisms personally.

People who post "their formula" for activity tend to imply theirs is either the best way, or optimal, then rationalise why or ask for feedback. Problem seems to be here, other people comment to you that yours appears irrational, and you are unwilling to accept it except by stating it's personal preference, then going into more detail to explain your rationale. There's nothing to debate then is there? If you want to debate it, take the criticism on board, if not just stop posting to justify yourself. No one else has really had opportunity to post their formula for calculating PI profitability in terms of time spent active/inactive because the discussion is almost a monologue from you.

I've used a few irrational formulas myself on occasion, others probably do, but it's not worth posting them on the eve-o forums, as they wont get any constructive feedback and I'm not interested in any in the first place. If it works for me that's all I need. Who cares what other people think, do you really need their approval either way? Can't really use a personal standard to debunk someone else's argument.... if it makes no sense to anyone else or they refuse to accept it's validity.


That wasn't really the case though, I didn't say "Here this is the best formula", it was simply posted to as a rebuttal to someone believing I value my time free. One, I might add, that I do put a cost on my time. I even asked how other people value their time. Go look for yourself if you don't believe its in there. Only a couple replied. Now you'll probably roll your eyes at this, but in case you missed it, apart from Mme and RAW literally who had legitimate questions as to why, the rest of the posts where nothing but trolls and I actually ignored almost all of them. You want me to ignore those people who are legitimately interested in why I do that? WHY being the key here. RAW even said "I'm Struggling to work out why you put these two numbers together..." What you're suggesting is I just ignore that, that's kinda rude don't you think?

Despite what you're suggesting I have read what others suggest, or even pointed out why they think my calculations are incorrect. And sure I've tried to justify one of two. Why? Because I don't think they quiet understand where I'm coming from. Calling it irrational really rubbed me the wrong way because the whole "He is doing something irrational" is a an odd argument. What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.

What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.


Phoebe Halliwel
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:19:00 - [132]
 

Originally by: SencneS
What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.

I do, just don't know if there's much point trying to convince others in a public setting, when their opinion is irrelevant anyway (depending on how needy you are for their approval).

Originally by: SencneS
What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.

I'm not reading that drivel again!

I don't understand why you post either, so let's leave it at that Very Happy

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:22:00 - [133]
 

Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 20:23:11
Originally by: Phoebe Halliwel
Originally by: SencneS
What may seem irrational to someone maybe completely rational to them. I can tell from your post you would understand that.

I do, just don't know if there's much point trying to convince others in a public setting, when their opinion is irrelevant anyway (depending on how needy you are for their approval).

Originally by: SencneS
What I don't understand is why you choose to post when you clearly didn't read the whole subsection of posts on this thread about it. Not the first time you've chosen to intellectuality troll me when you didn't read the thread. You might want to do that next time.

I'm not reading that drivel again!

I don't understand why you post either, so let's leave it at that Very Happy


Sounds reasonable to me, I bid you a good day good lady.

Edit:- Changed Sex..

J'J'J'Jita
Ch'Ch'Ch'Chia Corp
Posted - 2010.07.10 14:58:00 - [134]
 

GS hanging out at 12.2/14.1, a nice solid "buy" given the discussion in this thread.

Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus
IT Alliance
Posted - 2010.07.10 16:15:00 - [135]
 

Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:26:23

Right now, going by jita buy prices for the mats (Water-cooled CPU: 2681 and Transmitter: 2850) to make 1 GS, it would cost 18,436 isk (2681*3.33+2850*3.33) So, it's still better to just sell the t2 mats and not make the GS. However, as the GS are being consumed at about 10m / month, even the stockpiles won't be able to forestall that demand and the price for GS will increase again.

Mind you, this analysis of the t2s that make GS is incorrect anyways, as nobody is actually using them to produce GS, therefore, there is much less demand for these 2 t2 items, and therefore their prices are as low as they are right now. Once it gets to a point that Water-cooled CPUs and Transmitters are actually used in production of GS, their consumption will jump to atleast 33.3m units per month each. At that point their price will also increase in similar fashion to GS price. So, taken with a grain of salt, it may be profitable to buy those t2 items now as well, at their current prices.

This may also be a good time to stock up on some t2 drones, because each one takes 1-4 (large drones 4, medium 2, small 1) to manufacture.

Also, each Recursive Computing Module (t4) takes 6 GS to make, and this t4 is used in about half of all POS modules - a demand previously not accounted for in the 10m / month due to drone manufacturing alone as was previously the sole demand for GS.

Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus
IT Alliance
Posted - 2010.07.10 16:31:00 - [136]
 

Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:49:32

The 10m units of GS / month above is actually a low value for the consumption. This 10m/month is solely based on the Forge region and solely due to drone construction, which did not account for GS being bought outside of the Forge region. This also does not account for the use of GS in the t4 item that is currently being used in about 1/2 of POS modules. Given those two things, it is more likely that GS consumption is more along the lines of 15m-20m per month and not 10m/month.

With 15-20m / month figure, it would take about 10 to 13 months to eat through the 200m units stockpiled.

Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
Posted - 2010.07.10 18:40:00 - [137]
 

Glancing around a few regions, consumption was about 30M/month pre-PI from what I saw. Verge Vendor, Forge, and another region (that I forget... didn't notice it till someone else mentioned it) each used up a few hundred thousand a day and a bit over a million a day when combined together.

Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus
IT Alliance
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:01:00 - [138]
 

Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45

I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:

The Citadel: 10.26m
Essence: 3.2m
Genesis: <1m
Sinq Laison: 16.2m
Everyshore: 6.1m
Verge vendor: 11.7m
Metropolis: <1m
Domain: <1m
Heimatar: <1m
Khanid: <1m
Derelik: <1m
Devoid: <1m
Tash: <1m
Kador: <1m
Forge: 12.56m
Lonetrek: 26.8m

Total: 86.82m / month

SpyAlt122
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:11:00 - [139]
 

Originally by: Arthor Dark
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45

I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:

The Citadel: 10.26m
Essence: 3.2m
Genesis: <1m
Sinq Laison: 16.2m
Everyshore: 6.1m
Verge vendor: 11.7m
Metropolis: <1m
Domain: <1m
Heimatar: <1m
Khanid: <1m
Derelik: <1m
Devoid: <1m
Tash: <1m
Kador: <1m
Forge: 12.56m
Lonetrek: 26.8m

Total: 86.82m / month


Me wantz to have slice of profit concomitant to great impending shortage.

Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:15:00 - [140]
 

Originally by: Arthor Dark
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:03:47
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:02:45

I just flew around 16 empire regions and wrote down the amount of GS that were moved from 4/11 to 5/11 (well before PI) in each region:

The Citadel: 10.26m
Essence: 3.2m
Genesis: <1m
Sinq Laison: 16.2m
Everyshore: 6.1m
Verge vendor: 11.7m
Metropolis: <1m
Domain: <1m
Heimatar: <1m
Khanid: <1m
Derelik: <1m
Devoid: <1m
Tash: <1m
Kador: <1m
Forge: 12.56m
Lonetrek: 26.8m

Total: 86.82m / month


Going off that, I think the stockpiles have been vastly overestimated.


Arthor Dark
Nex Exercitus
IT Alliance
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:19:00 - [141]
 

Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:27:27
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 22:20:33
There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?

This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.

Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. 201k of hammerhead IIs (402k GSs.) 206k of warrior IIs (206k GSs.) Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.5m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.

Anyone know if there were NPC Guidance Systems buy orders? and if people actually did those trade routes?

Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:21:00 - [142]
 

Edited by: Icanti on 10/07/2010 22:23:08
Originally by: Arthor Dark
There is a problem with the 86m / month number. I bet people were buying / selling them from one region to another, i.e. NPC trade routes. Hence the huge numbers that were moved. For instance Verge Vendor had a high avg price of 450 isk / unit and shows 11.7m units there, maybe it was a sell point for NPC trade route traders?

This tells us nothing about what the drones actually require.

Over the same period, 4/11-5/11, 64,656 ogre IIs were sold in Jita 4-4, which is equivalent to 258.6k of Guidance Systems. Even if you multiply that over the 4 large drones, then again for mediums and light, you come out to only about 3.1m / month, as a very rought gustimate and a far cry from 86m / month.


How about people/corps manufacturing for their own consumption?

Edit- Also, Jita is not the only market for drones.....


Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.11 10:13:00 - [143]
 

Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37
Take a look at Consumer electronics.

Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.

Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)

Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.

40* 500 = 20k

So that's 40k for 5.


8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.

People are insane!!!!



Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.07.11 11:46:00 - [144]
 

Originally by: Icanti
Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37
Take a look at Consumer electronics.

Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.

Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)

Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.

40* 500 = 20k

So that's 40k for 5.


8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.

People are insane!!!!





I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated,
and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated.... Wink

But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.


Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.11 12:25:00 - [145]
 

Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 12:25:42
Originally by: Dr Nefarius

I'm afraid I didn't understand the part where you explained why CS was underrated,
and not Toxic metals and Chiral Structures beeing overrated.... Wink

But yeah, I think CS is likely to climb some more.




I guess it all depends on where the price of the raw products settle.

Currently, Chiral structures are selling below Jita cost price.

Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.

Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.

3000*7= 21k

That's 1050 isk per unit. So based on the current cost of the products, Chiral structures are also undervalued.

Will the P1 products rise or fall from here?





Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.07.11 13:44:00 - [146]
 

I don't think it will be a matter of stable prices for the raw materials. I think the 'standard level' that prices will be set from will be P2, for the simple fact that it's fairly easy to make P2:s (almost all can be done on a single planet), and that there is a direct demand for many P2:s as POS fuel and for t2 manufacturing.
For those making other P2:s, they will have something to base their price on as a comparison (or they will shift production).



pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:03:00 - [147]
 

Originally by: Icanti
Edited by: Icanti on 11/07/2010 10:17:37
Take a look at Consumer electronics.

Takes 40 Toxic metals and 40 Chiral Structures to produce 5 Consumer electronics.

Toxic Metals - Lets say they are worth 500 isk per unit (going for 800 in Jita right now)

Chiral Structures - 500 per unit.

40* 500 = 20k

So that's 40k for 5.


8k per Consumer electronic, and yet they are being sold for 3.6k in Jita right now.

People are insane!!!!






It's always a good investment sign when the P2 is undervalued compared to its inputs, and then its major input is also undervalued compared to the P0. Consumer Elec is bound to rise.

But it's not used in Guidance Systems. Perhaps you should start a thread about it?

Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:09:00 - [148]
 

Originally by: Arthor Dark
Edited by: Arthor Dark on 10/07/2010 16:49:32

The 10m units of GS / month above is actually a low value for the consumption. This 10m/month is solely based on the Forge region and solely due to drone construction, which did not account for GS being bought outside of the Forge region. This also does not account for the use of GS in the t4 item that is currently being used in about 1/2 of POS modules. Given those two things, it is more likely that GS consumption is more along the lines of 15m-20m per month and not 10m/month.

With 15-20m / month figure, it would take about 10 to 13 months to eat through the 200m units stockpiled.


Good guess but far from target.Gs was hardly the best npc good to trade there were much better things like wheat for example that were used in daily rotes.Gs was hard to aquire and hard to sell so nobody or very low part of the population were actually trading it.
So the numbers you see are mostly for production.

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2010.07.11 16:55:00 - [149]
 

Originally by: Icanti
Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.

Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.

Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.

Icanti
Posted - 2010.07.11 17:04:00 - [150]
 

Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Icanti
Takes 3000 non-CS Crystals to produce 20 Chiral structures.

Non-CS is going for 7.3 isk in Jita.

Anyone who uses P0 prices in their calculations should be given the same amount of trust as an E-Bank spokesperson.


I'm not saying buy them, I'm just asking are they undervalued or not.

How should we value p0 materials? What should the market value be?



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