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Jack Icegaard
The Omega Project
Posted - 2010.06.18 18:31:00 - [61]
 

Originally by: Sentry Skills
1. Yes, i am wrong for the POS fuel and the T2 builds. But few are used. Most people will harvest POS fuel for themselves.

2. Yes, you do have to pay a tax. But that is equal to everyone.

3. All planets of same type, supply the same raw products everywhere in eve. The only different is the yield amounts. This is still based on the player getting full yield out of the planet. Also, when I say equal, none of these raw product will you ever be able to compare values like Trit and Mega.



You must also put processor time into account. For example, to keep one supercomputer factory (P3) running 24/7, you need 18 other processors also running 24/7. That means 19 processors to turn raw materials into P3 + the extra cost and hassle to import and truck stuff around. You cant just extrapolate Raw material cost into P3, assuming people will run all those processors and put in the extra effort for free.

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.06.18 18:39:00 - [62]
 

An untrained alt gets a 100% Speed bonus all the way to 1.9mil SP.
For PI along with Cybernetics I, Optimized EVE-Mon training path is 13d, 3h, 29m, 3s
This is to get everything to level 4, apart from Remote Sensing which is 3.
However, the 100% bonus speed knocks that down to.
6 days, 13 hours, 44 minutes, 32 seconds.

Toss in Racial Industrial 4 and you're looking at maybe 10-11days
On the alt I tried it on, my last skill, Indy IV pushes me over the 1.9mil SP for a total of 1,983,042sp.

So maybe we should look at how much ISK you could make fireing up alts in PI..

3 per account, that's 15 planets, each planet pumping out x amount is that enough to pay for 2 accounts?

Jagga Spikes
Minmatar
Spikes Chop Shop
Posted - 2010.06.18 19:00:00 - [63]
 

Edited by: Jagga Spikes on 18/06/2010 19:04:24
Originally by: SencneS
An untrained alt gets a 100% Speed bonus all the way to 1.9mil SP.
...


since when? isn't limit at 1.6mil?

edit: just checked. it's still 1.6mil.

Guilliman R
Gallente
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.06.18 19:04:00 - [64]
 

Originally by: Jagga Spikes
Originally by: SencneS
An untrained alt gets a 100% Speed bonus all the way to 1.9mil SP.
...


since when? isn't limit at 1.6mil?


1.6 yes.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 19:17:00 - [65]
 

Probably just some honest numpad typo (I also normally use the numpad, not the numbers above the letters).

Time2Whine
Posted - 2010.06.18 19:23:00 - [66]
 

Edited by: Time2Whine on 18/06/2010 19:24:05
Originally by: Akita T
Probably just some honest numpad typo (I also normally use the numpad, not the numbers above the letters).


Yes, it's very probable that he never learned how to type and relocates his hand from the alphanumerical keys to the numpad multiple times in the middle of a sentence... Neutral

Guilliman R
Gallente
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.06.18 19:35:00 - [67]
 

Originally by: Time2Whine
Edited by: Time2Whine on 18/06/2010 19:24:05
Originally by: Akita T
Probably just some honest numpad typo (I also normally use the numpad, not the numbers above the letters).


Yes, it's very probable that he never learned how to type and relocates his hand from the alphanumerical keys to the numpad multiple times in the middle of a sentence... Neutral


NO U! Don't diss the numpad people!Evil or Very MadEvil or Very MadEvil or Very Mad

Speaking of numpad. Drones, they should rise. I 'accidentally' Managed to get 3500 cheap hammerhead II's oO

Yoshimo kovacs
Posted - 2010.06.18 20:36:00 - [68]
 

Apologies - it's late and england drew to Algeria, however I have read a lot of the forum comments regarding PI, I am based in High sec and both build T3 products but also bought a high level of P2 items from NPC's which I use for T3 production. TBH if u are in high sec I don't understand why some people think they are making millions a day from planets. I am at present but just from stocks I bought however, I don't see how in high sec that pure P1production to P2/P3 will actually be worth time spent

Illectroculus Defined
No Bull Ships
Posted - 2010.06.18 20:45:00 - [69]
 

Originally by: Resivan

An untrained alt can be made PI ready--Racial Industrial III, Remote Sensing III


If you're training an alt for PI I'd suggest going for amarrian ships - the Sigil gives you plenty of space at Amarr Industrial 1 and with 5 low slots for WCS and being dirt cheap (just bought one for 200k) it's great for grabbing stuff from customs offices one jump into low-sec. The magnate is also a great ship for picking up launch cans.

I have 6 alts all doing PI in various ways.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2010.06.18 21:23:00 - [70]
 

Edited by: Adunh Slavy on 18/06/2010 21:29:18
Originally by: Durente Galaica
In general I agree with what you've put forth Akita.

However, I would take a second look at the P0 market.

...

I guess I wouldnít rule out P0 completely.



Me either. Let's look at 900,000 units of P0s. P0 import has a few advantages for producers. The cost per unit, assuming 900,000 P0s, comes to 0.13 fixed cost for imports, this includes taxes, BIF cost, P1 Export.

Cost to P0 Exporter is 0.15 a unit. And that is a fixed cost, no guess work needed on the P0 exporters part, ever.

P0 to P1 and Export for 900,000 units, assuming just one extractor is 0.13. But, unless the one extractor can crank out 3000 units per BIF cycle, one will be inclined to buy and place another extractor. Brining the fixed cost to 0.18 per unit of exported P1s in P0 terms.

Purchasing 900,000 units of a P0 and importing, can run one BIF for 6.25 days. No extractor clicking, don't have to pay for the extractors etc.

Fixed cost for 6.25 days of P0 Import and P1 Export, 0.13 per P0 Unit.
Fixed cost for 6.25 days P0->P1 local, 0.18 per P0 unit. (assuming 2 extractors)

Granted this is just a one week view of fixed costs. So take that salt with it. But we see there is a sliver of advantage on importing P0s in short and mid term fixed costs. As the market matures, those that are most nimble will be able to react better with out incurring infrastructure (fixed cost) churn.

The 0.18 P0->P1 vrs the 0.15 P0 Export. 0.03 difference. Add sourcing convenience, rarity and risk, and perhaps we can explain why P0s are selling where they are.

As margins come down, that 0.03 may be significant. Right now, not so much as the market is still finding it self.

P.S. Why 900,000 units. Because 900,000 P0 unit import tax is the same cost as 1 Extractor.

Jack Icegaard
The Omega Project
Posted - 2010.06.18 21:59:00 - [71]
 

Edited by: Jack Icegaard on 19/06/2010 01:26:03
Here is my attempt to calculate the cost-relationship between Raw Materials and P1-P4, with the following assumptions and simplifications:

First, lets say the average Raw Material cost will be X ISK per unit. I assume that each P4 have the same average cost of X ISK per needed unit of Raw Material, (this is most likely not true but still a reasonable simplification IMO).

Second, lets say that the PI industrialists can be put into two categories: Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist, each wanting the same profit per unit command center power grid. Power grid seem to be the limiting factor for how much you can get out of each planet. I assume that Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist have the same cost and time consumption to keep everything running 24/7.

Third, I assume that the average Extractor-industrialists gets 2400 units of Raw Material per extractor and hour. Since an extractor uses 800 pg (power grid), the Extractor-industrialists gains 2400/800 = 3X per unit pg and hour.

To build Wetware Mainframes you need 115 processors running using 87 400 pg. So for a Processor-Industrialist building Wetware Mainframes to have the same profit as the Extractor-industrialists (3X per unit pg and hour), the Wetware Mainframe must cost 3*87 400 = 262 200 X + Raw Material cost at 432 000 X, which means 694 200 X per unit Wetware Mainframe.

The processor cost is roughly 60% of the Raw Material cost for Wetware Mainframe meaning they should cost about 60% more than the included Raw Material.

To build the P3s that needs 3 different P2s you need 14 500 units of pg and the price will be (3*14500 (processor cost) + 72 000 (Raw Material cost))/3 = 38 500 X/unit. The processor cost is 60% of the material cost meaning these P3s should cost about 60% above the cost of the needed Raw Material.

To build P2 you need 2300 pg and the cost per unit will be (2300*3 (processor cost) + 12 000 (Raw Material cost))/5 = 3 780 X/ unit. The processor cost is 74% of material cost so the price per unit for P2 should be about 74% above the cost of the needed Raw Material.

To build P1 you need 800 pg and the cost per unit will be (800*3 (processor cost) + 6000 (Raw Material cost))/40 = 210 X/ unit. The processor cost is 40% of material cost so the price per unit for P1 should be about 40% above the cost of the needed Raw Material.

To conclude: if we assume that X, the average price per unit Raw Material is 5 ISK, then we should get the following prices per unit:

P1: 1050:-
P2: 18 900:-
P3 (3*P2): 192 500:-
P4 (3*P3): 3 471 000:-

More realistic average Raw Material prices is perhaps of 2 isk per unit.
Then we get:

P1: 420:-
P2: 7 560:-
P3: 77 000:-
P4: 1 388 400:-

Note that the important stuff here is the price-relationship between P1, P2, P3 and P4 not the prices themselves.

Fraa Jaad
Posted - 2010.06.18 22:16:00 - [72]
 

Estimate just 500 current macro users running 2000 to 2500 planets actively 23/7 (that's not counting additional more passively run planets on alts, for another 4k to 5k planets). Each actively managed extractor being surveyed 46 times a day, every half hour, cycling every 5 minutes, or maxing out at the resource refill rate whatever that is. Each passive account extractor on 23:00 survey cycles. That's somewhere between 6k and 7.5k planets a third of which are at maximum extractor productivity 23/7.

If PI is still profitable enough to draw live players, it will also draw more macro users in addition to the estimate above, who will undercut the live players. CCP will condemn the macro users, slap them on the wrist, and continue accepting their money. Their effect on your market speculations and efforts to contribute to production in the Eve-economy will be widely recognized as a great tragedy. Pirates, PvP players, and mission runners will not cruelly savor your care-bear tears at how useless mining or PI has become. That would be cruel.

P1s somewhere between 40 and 60 a piece,
P2s between 800 and 1200 a piece,
P3s between 6k and 8k a piece
P4s either between 110k-130k or 85k-95k a piece, depending on "type"

Yes, 1/10th the OP suite estimates.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.19 00:40:00 - [73]
 

Well, I _suppose_ that for the lowest price levels you would pick a macro-worthy effort level (5 min cycles with 30 minute durations between restarts all day long) and overall highsec income equivalent to that of mining ice in highsec (so, about 2 mil ISK/hour tops, maybe even as little as 1 mil ISK/hour since, well, you could ALSO have the macros do ice-mining in the background)...
...anybody know just how low the extraction numbers for such cycles in highsec might be at on pretty heavily depleted resource deposits might be ?
Of course, this assumes somebody (an actual person that bothers to read/post in the forum) WAS crazy enough to sit on a deposit with heavy-duty cycling to see just how low they would go through depletion.
Laughing

General Bezelbub
Caldari
Posted - 2010.06.19 02:31:00 - [74]
 

I have not tried highsec since test server. But, I got ~30% reduction in amount of PI mats extractor per cycle, after running a 13 extractor patch for less then a day. That was using 30min cycle time fr ~14 hours.

Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.19 06:31:00 - [75]
 

Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 06:42:47
Here are some numbers I would like to put in your heads... Some of you will say that can't be right. Sadly to say itís true.

Here is a price list of all the Processed Materials, Refined Commodities, and Specialized Commodities if you buy all the Raw Materials at 1 ISK each!

ALL Processed Materials would cost 150.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Industrial Fibers, Silicon)

ALL Refined Commodities would cost 2,400.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Construction Blocks, Coolant)

ALL BUT 6 Specialized Commodities would cost 16,000.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Robotics, Guidance Systems)

The Following 6 Specialized Commodities would cost 24,000.00 ISK per unit.
1.Gel-Matrix Biopaste
2.Hazmat Detection Systems
3.Planetary Vehicles
4.Supercomputers
5.Biotech Research Reports
6.Cryoprotectant Solution

Now what does this tell you. If you see any of these list items on the market selling for less than this. The raw products must have cost less than 1 ISK per unit.

Here is a list of Advanced Commodities if you buy all the Raw Materials at 1 ISK each!

The following 3 are listed at 198,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Nano-Factory
2.Organic Mortar Applicators
3.Sterile Conduits

The following 3 are listed at 288,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Broadcast Node
2.Recursive Computing Module
3.Self-Harmonizing Power Core

The following 2 are listed at 432,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Integrity Response Drones
2.Wetware Mainframe

Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.06.19 07:17:00 - [76]
 

Originally by: Sentry Skills
Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 06:42:47
Here are some numbers I would like to put in your heads... Some of you will say that can't be right. Sadly to say itís true.

Here is a price list of all the Processed Materials, Refined Commodities, and Specialized Commodities if you buy all the Raw Materials at 1 ISK each!

ALL Processed Materials would cost 150.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Industrial Fibers, Silicon)

ALL Refined Commodities would cost 2,400.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Construction Blocks, Coolant)

ALL BUT 6 Specialized Commodities would cost 16,000.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Robotics, Guidance Systems)

The Following 6 Specialized Commodities would cost 24,000.00 ISK per unit.
1.Gel-Matrix Biopaste
2.Hazmat Detection Systems
3.Planetary Vehicles
4.Supercomputers
5.Biotech Research Reports
6.Cryoprotectant Solution

Now what does this tell you. If you see any of these list items on the market selling for less than this. The raw products must have cost less than 1 ISK per unit.

Here is a list of Advanced Commodities if you buy all the Raw Materials at 1 ISK each!

The following 3 are listed at 198,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Nano-Factory
2.Organic Mortar Applicators
3.Sterile Conduits

The following 3 are listed at 288,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Broadcast Node
2.Recursive Computing Module
3.Self-Harmonizing Power Core

The following 2 are listed at 432,000.00 ISK per unit
1.Integrity Response Drones
2.Wetware Mainframe



Is that taking into account any effort/costs with processing the materials?

Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.19 07:27:00 - [77]
 

Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 07:28:09
No, this is only material cost. In which tells you everything listed here should be HIGHER in price. Shocked

Flinchey
Amarr
Posted - 2010.06.19 07:36:00 - [78]
 

well i can say i'm getting close to 1bn isk profit from PI so far.

Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.19 07:39:00 - [79]
 

Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 07:45:06
Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 07:41:54
I am sure, some people are buying raw products for 300isk p/u.. That is f'ning crazy!

update.
in "Moselgi" someone is buying 175k of Biomass for 550 p/u.. that is 100mil on Processed!... poor guy is giving away his isk and doesn't know it.Confused

Packtu'sa
Nabaal Construction and Industrials Corp
Nabaal Syndicate
Posted - 2010.06.19 07:45:00 - [80]
 

Originally by: Jack Icegaard
Second, lets say that the PI industrialists can be put into two categories: Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist, each wanting the same profit per unit command center power grid. Power grid seem to be the limiting factor for how much you can get out of each planet. I assume that Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist have the same cost and time consumption to keep everything running 24/7.

While I understand you are making this assumption to simplify your calculations, I think it's worth observing that it's entirely incorrect. You can set a planet up to run materials through industry facilities all day long and all you've got to do is make an import/export run every so often.

An Advanced command centers outputs 17,000 MW and 21,315 tf. Launch pad requires 700 MW and 3,600 tf. That leaves enough to fit 23 AIFs with change for links. A P3 schematic will require 30 m3 in material per hour and produce 18 m3 per hour. So, with 23 AIFs, a single launchpad will store enough material for the better part of a day. Realistically, you'd probably run 2-3 launch pads and do an import/export every 3-4 days.

My point is this: running the processing facilities is a hell of a lot easier than extracting the P0s and making P1s. There's no nonsense of regular clicking; hell, you could store extra material in the customs office and just import it when you have a little free space, and then you're easily up to a week with a couple launch pads.

Most of the money from PI will be in the harvesting, but there will still be a little in processing, and it's tough to say which market will emerge as the most dynamic. My bet is on P1 goods simply because the masses don't seem to understand the PI interface well enough to efficiently produce P2s or P3s while extracting. It also may be more profitable to simply run extractors and BIFs...

Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
Posted - 2010.06.19 10:32:00 - [81]
 

People are bying raw materials because some ppl just want the end product for their pos.Atm npc prices are trough the roof.

Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
Posted - 2010.06.19 11:45:00 - [82]
 

There's a few schools of thought on harvesting planets and whether to take them to P2/P3 levels on a single planet.

- If the two different resource bands needed to create the P2 are far apart, you're going to be spending a lot of CPU/PG on a link between those two spots. That could cost you 1-2 extractors / BIFs / AIFs. That's a non-starter on larger diameter planets like gas giants.

- It's a PITA to balance out your extractors so that you get nearly the same draw from both extractor fields to keep producing the P1 in equal amounts.

- Producing P2 on-site means a 4:1 reduction in hauling volume over producing just P1. The ISK fees for import/export are pretty much a wash between the two.

With an advanced PCC, most of my planets are capable of supporting between 21 and 23 structures. For a P2/P3 production setup, I prefer a 6:1 ratio of AIFs to Launchpads. Usually 18 AIFs and 3 Launchpads, which gives you 1667 m3 per AIF of storage. That's 54 hours of input for a P1-P2 AIF or 37 to 55 hours of input for P2-P3 AIF. The triple setup gives me flexibility (3 product chains), the ability to queue up at least 1 day of materials, and less confusion because I keep it separate.

P1 input to a P2 AIF is 30.4 m3/hr, output is 7.5 m3/hr
P2 input to a P3 AIF is 30 m3/hr or 45 m3/hr, output is 18 m3/hr

So I prefer to keep my P1 harvesting mostly separate from my P2/P3 production.

As for the original premise, I expect that a PI colony will need to produce 3-6M/mo in profits or people aren't going to stick with it long-term. In hi-sec, that gives us:

- High-abundance resources can keep (3) BIFs busy, 960 units/day per BIF, or 86,400/mo. With a goal of 3M ISK/mo, that's a price of 35 ISK/unit. Up to 70 ISK/unit if players want 6M ISK/mo from that high-abundance P1 planet.

- Low-abundance resources that can only keep (1) BIF busy in hi-sec. Players will probably want 5-8M ISK/mo. Which would mean a price per unit of up to 275 ISK for low-abundance resources.

So I'm sticking with my original thoughts that P1s will end up priced in the 50-250 range, with a lot of downward pressure on the upper-end as people flock to the flavor of the month. I don't think the current price range of 60 (Water) to 175 (Oxygen) to 1400 (Biomass and Industrial Fibers) will hold up. By next week, I expect Biomass and Ind Fibers below 1000 ISK and dropping due to increased supply.

The reason that I think flavor of the month will somewhat rule the day (and even out P1 pricing) is that once you have a PCC plunked down on a planet, it only costs about 2-3M to change over your entire extraction setup to pull and process a different P1. If you're not making enough with one type of raw, it's not too difficult to start switching over to harvesting a second type. Especially since the PCC can be at any arbitrary location on the planet and doesn't need to be connected to your other buildings.

(If CCP changes it so that you *have* to connect everything to everything, then we'll see larger price spreads in P1 product prices.)

P2 prices will be 16x (minimum) to 20x (profit) of P1. Which gives me a figure of 800-5000 for P2 long-term. The multi-planet P2 will probably be more in the 1500-2500 ISK range with a few of the P2 made from double-rares in 5000-7500 range. Which isn't too far away from present reality of 800-32,000 ISK for the current P2s.

Kieselguhr Kid
Posted - 2010.06.19 16:19:00 - [83]
 

Originally by: Sentry Skills
Edited by: Sentry Skills on 19/06/2010 06:42:47
Here are some numbers I would like to put in your heads... Some of you will say that can't be right. Sadly to say itís true.

ALL BUT 6 Specialized Commodities would cost 16,000.00 ISK per unit. (IE. Robotics, Guidance Systems)



I can confirm Goonswarm is very sad at only holding a combined 1.13 trillion isk of guidance systems :(

cosmoray
Perkone
Posted - 2010.06.19 17:26:00 - [84]
 

I can tell you as a holder of a Hobgoblin II BPO I purchased 2 years supply of all NPC commodities used in the drone production. I also know 4 other T2 Drone BPO owners and they all did the same.

If the cost goes up it will start to take some of the inventors out of the market. Although I doubt there will be a big spike in prices of drones it will allow me to turn my inventory quicker, atm I am running about 6 weeks behind production.

There has also been some agreement between some large high sec industrial corps (who own and run large T2 BPO networks) about what they will produce (or more importantly what they won't produce) in PI, and that everything made will be for in house use and not get to market. This is a large experienced group of industrialists.

It has one target keep POS fuels low and not sell commodities used in BPO production.

Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
Posted - 2010.06.19 17:31:00 - [85]
 

There won't be price increase in any of the t2 modules everyone is well stockpiled it seems and as far as i'm aware prices are even falling down a bit everyday.

Varo Jan
Caravanserai Consulting
Posted - 2010.06.19 18:33:00 - [86]
 

Originally by: cosmoray
There has also been some agreement ... that everything made will be for in house use and not get to market.

It has one target keep POS fuels low.

This. Ditto for operations such as One Stop.
POS ex-NPC fuels will fall as the market stabilises and speculation runs its course.

Jack Icegaard
The Omega Project
Posted - 2010.06.19 20:52:00 - [87]
 

Originally by: Packtu'sa
Originally by: Jack Icegaard
Second, lets say that the PI industrialists can be put into two categories: Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist, each wanting the same profit per unit command center power grid. Power grid seem to be the limiting factor for how much you can get out of each planet. I assume that Extractor-industrialists and Processor-industrialist have the same cost and time consumption to keep everything running 24/7.

While I understand you are making this assumption to simplify your calculations, I think it's worth observing that it's entirely incorrect. You can set a planet up to run materials through industry facilities all day long and all you've got to do is make an import/export run every so often.

An Advanced command centers outputs 17,000 MW and 21,315 tf. Launch pad requires 700 MW and 3,600 tf. That leaves enough to fit 23 AIFs with change for links. A P3 schematic will require 30 m3 in material per hour and produce 18 m3 per hour. So, with 23 AIFs, a single launchpad will store enough material for the better part of a day. Realistically, you'd probably run 2-3 launch pads and do an import/export every 3-4 days.

My point is this: running the processing facilities is a hell of a lot easier than extracting the P0s and making P1s. There's no nonsense of regular clicking; hell, you could store extra material in the customs office and just import it when you have a little free space, and then you're easily up to a week with a couple launch pads.

Most of the money from PI will be in the harvesting, but there will still be a little in processing, and it's tough to say which market will emerge as the most dynamic. My bet is on P1 goods simply because the masses don't seem to understand the PI interface well enough to efficiently produce P2s or P3s while extracting. It also may be more profitable to simply run extractors and BIFs...


Yes, you raise a fair point. Its more of a hassle to manage extractors so my calculations are probably on the high side for the processor-cost of the more advanced commodities. See it as a reply to posts suggesting that prices merely will reflect the cost of the Raw Material or even that higher tier stuff will cost less than the material its made of.

Even OP have the highest price for P3 at 10 times the cheapest P2. Yet, one unit of the most complex P3s need 10 units of P2s.

Thawed Corpse
Posted - 2010.06.20 04:39:00 - [88]
 

Edited by: Thawed Corpse on 20/06/2010 04:39:59
Today it looked as though many of the commodities selling far below these estimates were edging higher, and those selling above were settling lower. Is everyone reading this thread?

Some of the prices were just too good to be true, and I wish I had sold faster on those items. Many people must have seen some of the prices spiking and jumped into building those things. But this latest activity does make me think that market can only get better over time, as items produced from npc good are used up. The commodities that have consistently been high are those for which there were no npc-sold products in their production chain.

Either way an upward trend is a good thing.

Thawed Corpse
Posted - 2010.07.09 22:25:00 - [89]
 

Akita's predictions have been so accurate it scares me.

for P1s: right now most are priced between 250isk and 550isk.

for P2s: they fall into two groups. For those items that were sold in large amounts by npc or the items for which they are components of npc sold items, the prices seem to be slowly but consistently rising often already reaching prices of 2500isk to 6000isk.
For those items which were not connected with the npc selling, the prices started very high but are all now fallen to about 7000isk to 11000isk.

for P3s: prices range mostly in the neighborhood of 40k to 100k depending upon how many previous npc-sold goods they have as components.

_____________________
Outlook.
It is pretty clear that 3 things are going to change the prices going forward.

First many huge stockpiles will persist for the next year, with players periodically deciding to cash-in and take their profits. This will tend to dampen prices on goods related to those sales for a long time. As the items are used though, prices will increase.

Second, there it is clear that as prices stabilize, that some move up and others move down, and players adjust what they make to try to produce the most profitable items. The net effect of this is that those production changes over time will cause high priced items to go down, and low priced items to move up. (Invest in water anyone?)

Third and most important in my mind: Doing PI really is overly time consuming and dangerous, and many players that I saw in my region of 0-sec in the first few weeks are there a lot less often. It could be a combination of just not caring enough, or getting robbed by all the gate campers on the way to high-sec. Either way, the gate campers production of stolen PI goods will drop over time also, due to the drop in inexperienced players giving up and moving back to low-production high-sec space. (It is even tempting to just move to high-sec and only build on temperate planets using goods that you can buy at ridiculously low prices.) Over time with less dedicated production, prices will overall rise.

____________________
Price targets long term:
P0 650-700 isk
P2 12000isk
P3 90000isk
P4 800000 or 1.2M isk

These are all right in line with Akita's predictions.
Good work Akita!

menacemyth
Minmatar
Onyx Brotherhood
STR8NGE BREW
Posted - 2010.07.12 14:35:00 - [90]
 

Akita T your numbers, although pessimistic, do seem to be accurately predicted at 20%-50% below what would be necessary to keep Sov Structures at pre-Tyrannis prices.

My assumptions for my calculations were:
1) people will pay pre-Tyrannis prices for Sov structures or less, no more.
2) the value of commodities is only driven by resource abundance, number of players doing PI, and demand for Sov Structures. Players will switch to produce whatever is profitable and therefor T1's will stay + or - 20% of the average(1926.5).

However, there is one factor that might have been overlooked in everyone's calculations. It IS in the major alliances best interested to crash the PI market. Cheap PI means stockpiles of Jump bridges, cyno gens, cyno jammers, towers etc. Also means very cheap stations. So the cheaper the PI market the more powerful Major alliances are. I suspect they are playing a larger role in deflating PI prices than most people think.


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