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Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.06.18 06:39:00 - [31]
 

Some have mentioned that CCP won't let prices rise as high as akita suggests. However one should keep in mind how PI will be linked to dust. CCP most likely has an interest in PI beeing an important part of the eve economy, and with revenues high enough for people to fall in conflict over them.

Assume that CCP has done their math this time, Laughing
Then they would have taken a look on estimated isk/hour as akita did to get an idea on how strong the pull to PI will be. SHould they have done so I'd say akita's numbers are at least in the correct ball park.

Skarii TuThess
East Aridia Trading Company
Posted - 2010.06.18 06:43:00 - [32]
 

Hi Akita,

do you think your above predictions will be skewed by people who do PI for "free" POS fuel? That is to say that the low barrier and low maintenance of PI would cause people to get involved with PI to mine&refine their own POS fuel regardless of the involved profitability because they consider it to be free? Or due to the nature of them neither buying nor selling do you think they will be independent of the market?

on a similar note there will be lots of people undertaking PI in deep 0.0 / WH as a way of running their POS without having to move fuel around. Their motivation is to lower the burden of logistics, rather than make money (compared to mining ABCs which largely are shipped back to Jita). Do you think that this will have an effect upon your price predictions?

Jagga Spikes
Minmatar
Spikes Chop Shop
Posted - 2010.06.18 06:53:00 - [33]
 

Edited by: Jagga Spikes on 18/06/2010 06:53:13
Originally by: Durente Galaica
...
I guess I wouldn’t rule out P0 completely.



Advanced CC, 3 launchpads, 18 processors
consumes: 2,592,000 units of P0 per day (25,920 m3; 3×8,640m3)
produces: 17,280 units of P1 per day (6,566 m3)

each 1 isk difference between P0 buy price and P0 converted from P1 is about 2.3 mil profit per planet per day. if P1 sells at 450 isk, buying P0 at 2, importing, reprocessing, exporting and selling P1 will make 2.3 mil. it could be an option for high-value P0. tho, logistics is an issue. it's planetary tritanium.

edit: typo

Steve Celeste
Overdogs
Posted - 2010.06.18 08:57:00 - [34]
 

I wonder when CCP will release the advanced skills for controlling more than 6 planets...

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 10:21:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Slartibar
I do think the prices will vary between the most valuable and the most abundant. From my research, the most scarce will be resources like Chiral Structures, Industrial Fibers, Oxidizing Compound and expecially Silicon.
[...]Over time I see PI to be valued on about 2M a minute (lo-sec, 0.5M in hisec, 3M in 0.0, WH). From my research I've found that I use about 1 minute a day on a planet with an ACC. In addition to this I have to haul the resouces to a tradehub, taking about half an hour two times a week with a DST or blockade-runner (5 planets).
P1: 100-1.000 ISK

Well, yeah, I do agree some degree of price variation based on scarcity/availability will exist, although I somewhat doubt there will be any DRASTIC order-of-magnitude-or-more difference between the lowest-valued and highest-valued P1. I was merely trying to get some average price level, with scarcity-based deviations being a mere afterthought at the time.
Then again, it is in the realm of possible for us to see such huge price differences between P1s, even if not (IMO) too probable, so who knows.
As for your P1 price predictions... well, that would put the average around 500-ish, basically smack-dab in the middle of my last-OP-suite posts' numbers (where I said "these are a bit more realistic".
Hehe.

Originally by: J'J'J'Jita
Just go down the list of P2s and P3s in game right now. Some are horribly underpriced compared to others of the same tier, and aren't even made from common planets' materials. I'd buy them all now before the masses get in on it during the weekend.

It's already in the disclaimer - short-term stuff is horribly skewed by former NPC order thingies.
For all we know, there could be years passing before SOME of them actually recover to "average" levels.

Originally by: Chaos Incarnate
Originally by: General Bezelbub
those numbers look a tad high, I doubt I have stuff worth 127trillion isk

this

Well, duuh... I said so myself a couple of times too, implied in the disclaimer, said plainly in the last post of the OP series, and at least once in some other thread too...
The numbers in the "big section" are merely "omgwtf worst case scenario" numbers for heavy competition, resource depletion, while also having most people go "screw PI, it's annoying" because of it or something to that extent.
OF COURSE they're a "tad high", that's what determining some upper limit does.

Originally by: Dr Nefarius
CCP most likely has an interest in PI beeing an important part of the eve economy, and with revenues high enough for people to fall in conflict over them. Assume that CCP has done their math this time, Laughing

It's possible, but I wouldn't bet it's probable Laughing
Originally by: Skarii TuThess
[people doing PI for themselves] Do you think that this will have an effect upon your price predictions?

Considering my "predictions" are merely order-of-magnitude average estimates with no claim of being anywhere close to actual prices (like the big bold intro disclaimer says), yeah, it could very well be.

Guilliman R
Gallente
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.06.18 10:42:00 - [36]
 

I like you Akita T.

I learned quite a bit from observing you.. Embarassed

Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:08:00 - [37]
 

I would like to add some info. This is pulled from a post I started in Price Check area.

This is a breakdown of all the Advanced Commodities to RAW Materials needed.

Broadcast Node
Integrity Response Drones
Nano-Factory
Organic Mortar Applicators
Recursive Computing Module
Self-Harmonizing Power Core
Sterile Conduits
Wetware Mainframe

These Advanced Commodities are all needed to build "Starbase & Sovereignty Structures"

All other planetary materials (Raw, Processed, Refined, and Specialized) are not used in building anything but, Advanced Commodities.

You have zero loss of any materials when refining. So you have zero loss in value of the raw material to advanced commodities.

Raw materials are all equal in value, unlike anything else in the game. (Before you comment read the rest)

The Amount of Raw materials available to the player is the only factor that changes the value, which is 100% based on player needs.

So if you understand what I just said. The rest will be easy for you.


This is a list of the amounts of Raw materials needed for each item.

Broadcast Node
*288,000 Raw materials

Integrity Response Drones
*432,000 Raw materials

Nano-Factory
*198,000 Raw materials

Organic Mortar Applicators
*198,000 Raw materials

Recursive Computing Module
*288,000 Raw materials

Self-Harmonizing Power Core
*288,000 Raw materials

Sterile Conduits
*198,000 Raw materials

Wetware Mainframe
*432,000 Raw materials


So if "you" base Raw materials at 5isk each.

Broadcast Node
5 * 288,000 = 1,440,000isk

Integrity Response Drones
5 * 432,000 = 2,160,000isk

Nano-Factory
5 * 198,000 = 990,000isk

Organic Mortar Applicators
5 * 198,000 = 990,000isk

Recursive Computing Module
5 * 288,000 = 1,440,000isk

Self-Harmonizing Power Core
5 * 288,000 = 1,440,000isk

Sterile Conduits
5 * 198,000 = 990,000isk

Wetware Mainframe
5 * 432,000 = 2,160,000isk

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:23:00 - [38]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 18/06/2010 12:13:09
Why are your Integrity Response Drones and Wetware Mainframes showing up as 432000, did something change in the way they are manufactured while I wasn't looking ?
Solved below.

Uppsy Daisy
Caldari
Deteis Industries
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:33:00 - [39]
 

So whoever stockpiled any high volume ones at NPC prices stands to make a tidy profit then.

regandeddie
I WAS IN MADIC
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:33:00 - [40]
 

The P3 components of integrity response drones each require 3 p2 components for their manufacture; the P3 components of self-harmonizing power cores only require 2 p2 components each to manufacture. Hence Integrity response drones require more components

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:36:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: regandeddie
The P3 components of integrity response drones each require 3 p2 components for their manufacture; the P3 components of self-harmonizing power cores only require 2 p2 components each to manufacture. Hence Integrity response drones require more components

/facepalm
I hadn't noticed. You're right.

Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.18 11:37:00 - [42]
 

Edited by: Sentry Skills on 18/06/2010 11:40:56
regandeddie, thanks for making that clear. :)

Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
Posted - 2010.06.18 12:16:00 - [43]
 

Originally by: Sentry Skills


All other planetary materials (Raw, Processed, Refined, and Specialized) are not used in building anything but, Advanced Commodities.




wrong. POS fuels and some T2 builds.

Originally by: Sentry Skills


You have zero loss of any materials when refining. So you have zero loss in value of the raw material to advanced commodities.




Wrong, sort of. you will at some point have move a tier of materials off a plant to a new planet for a higher tier production, paying export and import taxes along the way.


Originally by: Sentry Skills


Raw materials are all equal in value, unlike anything else in the game. (Before you comment read the rest)

The Amount of Raw materials available to the player is the only factor that changes the value, which is 100% based on player needs.




Wrong. not all raw materials are equal in supply or demand so not all values and equal.

Menkaure
Amarr
LEM0N
Posted - 2010.06.18 12:21:00 - [44]
 

All interesting.

Originally by: Akita T

P1s somewhere between 400 and 600 a piece,
P2s between 8k and 12k a piece,
P3s between 60k and 80k a piece
P4s either between 1.1-1.3 mil or 850k-950k a piece, depending on "type"



Akita, whats your opinion on Nanite Repair Paste?
The BPO uses 1x Data Chips, 1x Gel-Matrix Biopaste, 4x Nanites to produce 10 units of Paste, so 2xP3 and 4xP2.

With your values above, we're looking at 150k-210k per 10 units. But is the fact that you have to produce the product in a non-PI based slot gonna make any difference?

Also, before the paste change it was 12k/unit. To my knowledge (and I haven't tested this, just been told) They changed it so you now have to use 10x as much (and correspondingly dropped npc sell orders down to 2k/unit).

So repairing x amount of damage initially cost 12k, then 20k after the change, and now with PI changes if we go with your values, will eventually cost 150k.

Wondering if you've got any thoughts on the matter.



Truth be told I think this is a series of unannounced changes that were brought about to ensure no market players made money off of the introduction of a paste BPO. Seems like they were happy with the 12k/unit price tag, but instead of going for, say, 20xP2 for ten units with a 5 minute build time they wanted to use P3's instead. To prevent a massive price spike on the paste at the start of PI introduction they dropped NPC orders to 2k/unit and 10x as much requirement. It would not surprise me if they rolled back the requirement of 10x as much paste once the price reaches 12k/unit or so. Maybe as a "bug fix".


Sentry Skills
Posted - 2010.06.18 12:55:00 - [45]
 

1. Yes, i am wrong for the POS fuel and the T2 builds. But few are used. Most people will harvest POS fuel for themselves.

2. Yes, you do have to pay a tax. But that is equal to everyone.

3. All planets of same type, supply the same raw products everywhere in eve. The only different is the yield amounts. This is still based on the player getting full yield out of the planet. Also, when I say equal, none of these raw product will you ever be able to compare values like Trit and Mega.

Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
Posted - 2010.06.18 13:14:00 - [46]
 

Edited by: Dr Oktober on 18/06/2010 13:33:53
Few? you're kidding right? Look at just robotics, given an estimated 30,000 POS's in eve using 1/hr each that's 720,000 units per day.

plus it's used for T2 drones manufacture. How many drones are made per day?

and T2 guns. How many T2 guns manufactured per day?

how can you right off these demands as to few to have any effect on market price?

Edit:- taxes are the same per m3 but not everyone has an optimal setup. to say nothing of what each person values his time at for hauling. Or sales taxes.

3, These are comparable to Trit or megacyte. every man and his dog is going to be asking himself what's the optimal setup to make money, everything has an isk/hr value and there will always be comparisons.

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.06.18 13:36:00 - [47]
 

Originally by: Dr Oktober
Few? you're kidding right? given an estimated 30,000 POS's in eve using 1/hr each that's 720,000 units per day.

plus it's used for T2 drones manufacture. How many drones are made per day?

and T2 guns. How many T2 guns manufactured per day?

how can you right off these demands as to few to have any effect on market price?


It shouldn't effect it now, but it will if prices become too high. Some items will not be effected enough to notice, T2 ships for example, Construction blocks would have to be incredibility high in order to significantly effect the price to the point people stop buying.

But I was talking to a T2 Drone manufacture yesterday and their concern was robotics. T2 Medium Drones use 2 Robotic for perfect ME, a -4 would use 4 Robotics. So BPO holders of items like this just got a better deal.

If robotics goes to what people are dreaming for, 250K, that will jack the price of T2 Medium Drone up to as much as 1mil ISK more per drone.

That's the problem, T2 Drone will be rare, unsold and pretty much push Inventors out and shift supply back to the BPO holders, as the BPOs will only cost about 500K more. This just gives them a much large area to play with. While the Drone BPO holders are sitting pretty I can also imagine a significant decrease in demand, making them have a razor thing margin. This will pretty much make Invention out of the question, and the BPOs worthless.

I somehow doubt CCP will let that happen, although they do hate drones, so maybe that is their goal ;)

Good news for someone like me that has every T1 Drone BPO with Perfect ME/PE, I am thinking I might fire up a few production runs now and wait for T1 drone demand to hit.


Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
Posted - 2010.06.18 13:50:00 - [48]
 

Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 18/06/2010 13:54:05
250k per robotics is nearly impossible (imo). Robotics can be made completely on plasma planets. Eventually CCP will add ways for corp members to interact, such that it will be easy to combine efforts to make robotics with minimum effort. 40k is plausible, and while a slight increase (80k for BPO holders to 160k for inventors) its not a market breaking difference.

It also really only affects people who weren't into making drones already or stuck their head in the sand and didn't stockpile robotics. Every single drone producer I know stockpiled between 1 year and 5 years supply of robotics.

Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:07:00 - [49]
 

It's going to effect all T2 prices across the board.

Racial carbides are ~60 isk atm. what's there prices going be when the fuel costs of the towers to make them doubles or even triples? That's assuming a P2 cost of 2-3K and P3 at ~50K.

The same increased fuel costs again for the copying and research towers in hi-sec.

both of those before you get to the increased manufacturing costs.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:13:00 - [50]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 18/06/2010 14:22:02
Originally by: Dr Oktober
Racial carbides are ~60 isk atm. what's there prices going be when the fuel costs of the towers to make them doubles or even triples? That's assuming a P2 cost of 2-3K and P3 at ~50K.
The same increased fuel costs again for the copying and research towers in hi-sec.
both of those before you get to the increased manufacturing costs.

Linkage - the latest version has a "fuel cost autocalc" with you just having to enter prices of fuels.
Should be VERY easy to see where prices will go to.
Carbides, yeah, those will take the largest upwards hike (as a percentage of current price, I mean).




With recent fuel prices of ~230k per hour, JUST the cost of fuel from raw materials to advanced component using large gallente towers was:

Crystalline Carbonide 35
Fermionic Condensates 2,307
Fernite Carbide 35
Ferrogel 1,154
Fullerides 115
Hypersynaptic Fibers 538
Nanotransistors 269
Phenolic Composites 184
Sylramic Fibers 58
Titanium Carbide 35
Tungsten Carbide 35




Assuming oxygen at 500, coolant, enriched uranium amd mech parts at 8k, robotics at 50k, you get ~390k per hour fuel cost and just the fuel addition at


Crystalline Carbonide 58
Fermionic Condensates 3,863
Fernite Carbide 58
Ferrogel 1,932
Fullerides 193
Hypersynaptic Fibers 901
Nanotransistors 451
Phenolic Composites 307
Sylramic Fibers 97
Titanium Carbide 58
Tungsten Carbide 58


The insanely unlikely jump to 2k/28k/220k price levels would mean ~940k per hour, or a fuel-based addition of:

Crystalline Carbonide 140
Fermionic Condensates 9,338
Fernite Carbide 140
Ferrogel 4,669
Fullerides 467
Hypersynaptic Fibers 2,179
Nanotransistors 1,089
Phenolic Composites 743
Sylramic Fibers 233
Titanium Carbide 140
Tungsten Carbide 140


Take your pick of what you think likely fuel prices will end up at and see the difference between current fuel addition...

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:15:00 - [51]
 

Originally by: Vilgan Mazran
It also really only affects people who weren't into making drones already or stuck their head in the sand and didn't stockpile robotics. Every single drone producer I know stockpiled between 1 year and 5 years supply of robotics.


They would be IDIOTS if they didn't sell their drones for current market cost of materials.

Sure they buy up years worth of robotics, but that doesn't mean Drones are going to sell BELOW market reprocess value. This means Drones WILL be more costly to the consumer, not the producer.

Guilliman R
Gallente
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:23:00 - [52]
 

Originally by: Dr Oktober
It's going to effect all T2 prices across the board.


How overboard are we talking here? I'm very inexperienced with T2 manufacturing, so quite eager to find out some numbers.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:24:00 - [53]
 

Originally by: Guilliman R
How overboard are we talking here? I'm very inexperienced with T2 manufacturing, so quite eager to find out some numbers.

See two posts above...

Dr Oktober
Analogue Limited Engineering
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:48:00 - [54]
 

I'm sure Akita will cover that at some point but I wouldn't be surprised at 15-20% increase as a ballpark figure for all T2 items NOT involving P2 products in their production.

30% or more for those that do, including (but not limited to) drones, weapons, missiles and cloaking devices.

Guilliman R
Gallente
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.06.18 14:57:00 - [55]
 

I see, say no more Wink

Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2010.06.18 15:02:00 - [56]
 

Edited by: Letrange on 18/06/2010 15:03:39
nm - post answered above (need to read faster).

EvilCheez
That's Retarded
FIGHT CLUB INC
Posted - 2010.06.18 15:16:00 - [57]
 

Quote:
How overboard are we talking here? I'm very inexperienced with T2 manufacturing, so quite eager to find out some numbers.


Depends alot on the item. The Torp bpo I sold last week was about 21% of build cost in Rocket Fuel. Many don't have any pi constituents at all, but still will be affected when those who are running pos on crappy moons, or refining jita bought intermediates, figure they can make more doing PI without all the hassle and risk and shut those stations down.

Fraa Jaad
Posted - 2010.06.18 15:22:00 - [58]
 

Until we know the refill rate for extracted resources, and the degree to which CCP will enforce its anti-macro policy with as much (actually, as little) zeal as in ore and ice mining, there is no way to precisely estimate the bottom of the market for PI products.

Any forecast based on how much time it takes living people to cycle extractors will badly overestimate the value of PI products. Whats the difference between the actual price of ice and what it would cost using the projection methods in this thread? To earn 10M isk for about 20 minutes of play time, ice would have to sell for about 1M isk per ice cube, instead of about 100k isk per ice cube.

I wish I were wrong, but I can't see any reason why CCP will enforce its rules against macros better in PI than they have in mining.


My forecast is that PI goods will sell for about 1/10th of the optimistic projections in this thread, almost entirely due to macros undercutting the market.

0vermama
Gallente
Posted - 2010.06.18 16:50:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: Fraa Jaad
My forecast is that PI goods will sell for about 1/10th of the optimistic projections in this thread, almost entirely due to macros undercutting the market.


/make stock pile for holy rage 2

Resivan
Posted - 2010.06.18 18:04:00 - [60]
 

Originally by: Steve Celeste
I wonder when CCP will release the advanced skills for controlling more than 6 planets...


An untrained alt can be made PI ready--Racial Industrial III, Remote Sensing III, Command Center Upgrades IV and Interplanetary Consolidation IV--in around 14 days. Toss in the recommended learning skills and cheap +1 or +2 implants and that drops even further. That being the case, I'm doubtful that it's worth my time to train Interplanetary Consolidation V, much less a hypothetical Advanced Interplanetary Consolidation.


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