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Rolare
Amarr
Posted - 2010.06.03 21:32:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Culmen

WHAT THE HELL IS DOFUS?

I know it some free to play RPG.
but has anyone here actually played it?
It's bigger then Eve and actually growing too...


Well, kiddie-looking MMO ya but it's actually rather entertaining. Sure it's partially free to play but that's only in the starter area.

I admit I was like... uh, 12-14 years old when I played it but I did get some nice friends there (and experienced my ever first scam, don't listen if someone offers to sell you a guild xD) ^^

I'ts a nice game.

Also, the first chart was hilarious :

Vaal Erit
Science and Trade Institute
Posted - 2010.06.03 23:43:00 - [32]
 

The Warhammer and Age of Conan numbers are interesting. Do they mean that the developers lied about their subscription numbers at launch or is there a very large population of MMORPG gamers just waiting for a decent new MMORPG?

LOTRO and EVE (maybe Aion too) are the only games doing good atm. WoW is decreasing, I wonder if they are preparing WoW2 already. Even just announcing WoW2 would probably own the next few MMORPGs to come out.

Dztrgovac
Posted - 2010.06.03 23:49:00 - [33]
 

WOW has such a huge numbers of subscribers that even a massive drop to just 2 or 3 million subs will have it making truck loads of money. But Activision shareholders want maximum return of investment, so it is very likely that Blizz's 2nd MMO will be ready by time WOW dropps below 5-6 mil.

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.03 15:12:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Amida Ta
Edited by: Amida Ta on 03/06/2010 19:43:49
Originally by: Grez
Second Life isn't a single sharded universe :/. It works like Guild Wars...


Second Life is much more a clustered single shard than Eve.
In Eve you will always look at a black screen with a "loading..." window when changing between servers/instances. In Second Life you could visit EVERY other avatar without EVER getting any visible client notice about changing servers of the cluster.

P.S. The only thing questionable is if Second Life should be seen as a regular "game".


This pretty much sums it up.

I agree that Second Life is more of a real life simulation than a game, but I found it relevant enough to compare it to EVE Online.

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.03 15:20:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Zeonos
this cant be trusted at all.

everytime wow is close to an expansion, (TBC-Wotlk, and now cata), there is a lot of users there let their accounts run out, including me. most guilds slowly die out, and have a hard time getting numbers for raids.

so if the wow one was true, there should atleast be some small downwards slopes, near the releases of expansions.


Blizzard generally only announces new records, pretty much like EVE does ( even tho CCP was kind enough to give me all historical data as well ).

So I am sure there are declines between some datapoints.

All I can do is when I have a datapoint I put it on there, it is definatly not 100% complete ( even tho for EVE Online it is pretty close ), the dots are the datapoints, the lines just connect them, anything in between 2 dots is basically unknown.

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.03 15:25:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: Pesky LaRue
Hard to believe SWG still has 50k users, unless I'm reading it wrong?


No you don't read it wrong, altho that datapoint is from September 2009, so not sure what the current situation is.

I'd imagine that if it drops much below 50k SOE would just close it down ...


Elben Tsort
Posted - 2010.07.03 15:28:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Vaal Erit
The Warhammer and Age of Conan numbers are interesting. Do they mean that the developers lied about their subscription numbers at launch or is there a very large population of MMORPG gamers just waiting for a decent new MMORPG?

Probably a bit of both. Apart from EVE, which I've been playing on and off for quite a while, I've been waiting for a decent new MMO for years. A lot of my RL friends are in the same boat, briefly trying out any new games that look alright, then dumping them in a few weeks when it turns out they aren't.

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.03 16:05:00 - [38]
 

Edited by: CyberGh0st on 03/07/2010 16:05:53
Originally by: Elben Tsort
Originally by: Vaal Erit
The Warhammer and Age of Conan numbers are interesting. Do they mean that the developers lied about their subscription numbers at launch or is there a very large population of MMORPG gamers just waiting for a decent new MMORPG?

Probably a bit of both. Apart from EVE, which I've been playing on and off for quite a while, I've been waiting for a decent new MMO for years. A lot of my RL friends are in the same boat, briefly trying out any new games that look alright, then dumping them in a few weeks when it turns out they aren't.


I really don't think they lied, they did sell alot of boxes and some even stayed after the first month, but then the huge drop happened. I know, I was even there when it happened. At some point I took a break of a week ( from WAR ) and when I came back more than half my guild was gone and my friendslist nearly empty, it was nuts.

Something similar happened with AoC.

As long as developpers don't realize you should not hype up your game to unbearable leverls ( at least not pre-launch or during the first month ), but slowly build it up to make a good mmo, you will see alot of these heavy drops.

Boasting about 1 million players pre launch is just dumb.

Sturmwolke
Posted - 2010.07.03 17:33:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: Sazumaan Johnza
"http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/150k-1m.png"

Subscriptions : 150k - 1m



If you look at Everquest and Ultima, they both have similar subscribers' growth pattern, like Eve. A gradual rise and then it tapers off to a plateau after several years, then a slow downward decline (well, maybe not for EQ because of EQ2 intro). For both cases, it took around 2 and 4 years before the first taper-off started, respectively.

Now, when you see an MMO taper-off, it could be one of several major causes :

* players loosing their emotional attachment to the game as gameplay stagnates and worsens.
* other competing MMOs
* simply reaching the saturation level for the amount of players for its target group (which isn't necessarily a bad thing).

Here's a bit of theorycrafting. When MMO execs see a taper-off, they start panicking. Adopting short term plans and short goals in order to boost subcription level. When execution fails (because it really takes time to do things properly), they'll start panicking even more - paving the way for even more disaster. One cannot think clearly, if one is angry or distraught. Therefore, more and more players leave the game (as they cannot identify with it anymore) because of the failed execution - leading to an exodus.

For Eve, fortunately, after 7 years, we have yet to see any signs of it tapering off. This doesn't mean CCP should be resting on its laurels. I think this year (since I started fom Trinity) is the first year where deep player rumblings in regard to the quality of expansions and general state of the game is being strongly voiced. The period 2011-2012 will be interesting for Eve.

Larg Kellein
Caldari
Agony Unleashed
Agony Empire
Posted - 2010.07.03 17:45:00 - [40]
 

Originally by: CyberGh0st
Originally by: Pesky LaRue
Hard to believe SWG still has 50k users, unless I'm reading it wrong?


No you don't read it wrong, altho that datapoint is from September 2009, so not sure what the current situation is.

I'd imagine that if it drops much below 50k SOE would just close it down ...




SOE still offers the stationpass thing, don't they? Multiple subscriptions in one kinda makes any numbers from them suspect.

Anisa Schardl
Posted - 2010.07.03 18:22:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: CyberGh0st
Edited by: CyberGh0st on 03/07/2010 16:05:53
As long as developpers don't realize you should not hype up your game to unbearable leverls ( at least not pre-launch or during the first month ), but slowly build it up to make a good mmo, you will see alot of these heavy drops.



That's the tragic thing, though. A slow buildup to sustainable income is not something that is in any game company's business plan (with a very few notable exceptions). The majority of them are looking for the fast money, and want immediate maximum ROI. They shove a game out the door, then quickly abandon it for the next money maker. A good example of this is Modern Warfare 2. It wasn't even released and Activision was already demanding that IW start MW3, and they are still working on it, despite the deep misgivings and complaints that players have had about the implementation of MW2.

Obviously MMOs work different, but the surprising thing is, they aren't THAT much different. Most MMOs have a planned lifecycle, at the end of which the company will release another one. They may keep the old one running if it has enough people still playing (see EQ1 vs EQ2), but so far as I know, almost nobody besides CCP is looking to keep their MMO alive and expanding for decades if possible. Even WoW has a planned end, and they're coming up on it pretty soon here.

The practical part of this approach means that the company absolutely must hype the game to the maximum extent, and get as many subscribers as possible right out the door. They can't do a slow ramp-up, because their plan for the game only goes 3 years or so out. No time to ramp up. Frankly, I think it's a terrible approach, and more companies should be looking for the sustainable long-term growth like CCP, but hey, whatever.

Anisa Schardl
Posted - 2010.07.03 18:31:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Sturmwolke

For Eve, fortunately, after 7 years, we have yet to see any signs of it tapering off. This doesn't mean CCP should be resting on its laurels. I think this year (since I started fom Trinity) is the first year where deep player rumblings in regard to the quality of expansions and general state of the game is being strongly voiced. The period 2011-2012 will be interesting for Eve.



I disagree with this. I've been playing since 08, and every single expansion I've seen there have been lots and lots of vocal whines about the direction they went. In fact, the whines today are much, much quieter than the nano-nerf they did for Quantum Rise. The tears there were deafening, along with many, many people claiming this would be EvE's NGE.

But yeah, whining about the expansions is nothing new. In my time, I've seen:

Empyrean Age : tons of whines from 0.0 players that they were being ignored, as well as huge complaints that you couldn't join as an alliance
Quantum Rise : deafening whines about the nano-nerf, unfortunately drowning out all the positive feedback about the system upgrades that reduced lag
Apocrypha : lots of whines that wormholes were a niche thing, and that 0.0, lowsec, highsec, and everyone else were being ignored
Dominion : complaints that the new sov system was bad compared to the old one, as well as the (legitimate) complaints that they basically wrecked the lag situation back to pre-QR
Tyrannis : again, same thing, complaints that they ignored 0.0, lowsec, highsec, etc in favor of PI

The whines mostly follow a static trend, and will continue when they finally release Incarna and Dust. Everyone thinks that their little section of space is the only way to really play, and the only thing that CCP should spend time on. They're wrong, of course, but they continue to complain anyway. I don't think there is anything threatening about that. The only thing I think they REALLY need to do is figure out why Dominion broke the lag machine and fix it.

Sturmwolke
Posted - 2010.07.03 20:21:00 - [43]
 

Originally by: Anisa Schardl
I disagree with this. I've been playing since 08, and every single expansion I've seen there have been lots and lots of vocal whines about the direction they went. In fact, the whines today are much, much quieter than the nano-nerf they did for Quantum Rise. The tears there were deafening, along with many, many people claiming this would be EvE's NGE.


I think there's a lot of genuine dissatisfaction amongst the players this time around. When you read a whine, one thing you have to keep in mind is it's quality and validity. It those cases you mentioned, yes there's a lot of noise, but the overall fundamental direction at which they're aimed at is fairly spot on. Their execution of course, may vary from good to mediocre to poor to fail - take for example Apocrypha vs Tyrannis. It's like day and night.

I prefer to look at trends from a holistic higher perspective. Whether these latest round of dissatisfactions are the results of a poor (Tyrannis) release, which amplifies latent player displeasures towards gameplay is irrelevant. There will be a great amount of lava gathering under the volcano if CCP repeats misstep after misstep, and if Incarna/Dust doesn't live to expectations - expect the volcano to blow its top.

It short, screwing up is ok ... happens all the time. Making a trend out of screw ups i.e. one after another that destroys players' perception of a good game or company, that's folly. It will all add up as a debt - which really isn't too much an issue with short span MMO, but for long span MMO like EVE, I think it's a fairly important consideration that should be taken into account.

Anyways, these are my un-professional observations. I really didn't intend to write a wall-o-text, but I hope I got my points across. Razz

Liang Nuren
Posted - 2010.07.03 21:05:00 - [44]
 

Edited by: Liang Nuren on 03/07/2010 21:06:28
Originally by: Anisa Schardl

I disagree with this. I've been playing since 08, and every single expansion I've seen there have been lots and lots of vocal whines about the direction they went. In fact, the whines today are much, much quieter than the nano-nerf they did for Quantum Rise. The tears there were deafening, along with many, many people claiming this would be EvE's NGE.



I dunno that I buy this. Even taking your QR nano nerf example, the tears were deafening... by one segment of the market. But if you go look at the Assembly Hall right now, you have people from every single walk of life in Eve complaining that CCP is ****ing up repeatedly - 1767 supports, 2099 total posts... and at least 20% of the people that didn't "support" meant to... that's bordering on a 90% hit ratio that says CCP is ****ing up by the numbers lately.

-Liang

Ed: Also, Stormwulke goes back further than I do, but I've been forum whoring since before Revelations I, and we're defintely seeing a groundswell right now.

Takseen
Posted - 2010.07.03 21:29:00 - [45]
 

Originally by: Vaal Erit
The Warhammer and Age of Conan numbers are interesting. Do they mean that the developers lied about their subscription numbers at launch or is there a very large population of MMORPG gamers just waiting for a decent new MMORPG?

LOTRO and EVE (maybe Aion too) are the only games doing good atm. WoW is decreasing, I wonder if they are preparing WoW2 already. Even just announcing WoW2 would probably own the next few MMORPGs to come out.


Blizzard did announce that some of the original Wow dev team have been reassigned to work on an as yet un-named MMO. It may not be a direct sequel to Wow or even the same IP, but they're definitely planning to have a replacement ready as the original slowly declines.
I can also confirm there was a lot of interest in WAR, Conan and Aion among people I knew who played World of Warcraft. They subbed for a bit, some stayed but most saw it wasn't the Wow killer it was billed as and gave up pretty fast. Just a shame the site doesn't seem to have subscriber numbers for Aion.
Personally I think even trying to compete with it is a mistake, better to find your own niche and a completely different style. Thats probably one of the big reasons Eve has done so well to date, it has almost nothing in common with other MMOs.

RedLion
Caldari
State Constructions
Posted - 2010.07.04 23:48:00 - [46]
 

eve is deaded!

less serious: SecondLife isn't one shard?!

MaxxOmega
Caldari
Temporal Mechanics
Posted - 2010.07.05 01:39:00 - [47]
 

Originally by: JitaBum
Most of these companies don't release subscriber numbers

Whoever did this pulled these numbers from their ass

You don't wanna see what I can pull from my ass..

B1FF
Posted - 2010.07.05 19:53:00 - [48]
 

Originally by: Ran Khanon
Impresive to see the AOC and WAR failures so clearly.

Especially nice to see that their HUGE marketing budgets and aggressive secondary and tertiary, etc. advertising campaigns haven't done much for them at all.

'Word of mouth' surely made a comeback since the interwebz.

p.s. I wonder if WOW's first small but obvious decline will be a trend for the coming years.


Nope they'll up tick a ton when the next expansion releases.

Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
Posted - 2010.07.05 20:53:00 - [49]
 

Edited by: Malcanis on 05/07/2010 20:54:18
Originally by: Sturmwolke


Here's a bit of theorycrafting. When MMO execs see a taper-off, they start panicking. Adopting short term plans and short goals in order to boost subcription level. When execution fails (because it really takes time to do things properly), they'll start panicking even more - paving the way for even more disaster. One cannot think clearly, if one is angry or distraught. Therefore, more and more players leave the game (as they cannot identify with it anymore) because of the failed execution - leading to an exodus.

For Eve, fortunately, after 7 years, we have yet to see any signs of it tapering off. This doesn't mean CCP should be resting on its laurels. I think this year (since I started fom Trinity) is the first year where deep player rumblings in regard to the quality of expansions and general state of the game is being strongly voiced. The period 2011-2012 will be interesting for Eve.



quoted for irony.

Salria Usenheart
Caldari
Posted - 2010.07.06 00:39:00 - [50]
 

Originally by: Vaal Erit
The Warhammer and Age of Conan numbers are interesting. Do they mean that the developers lied about their subscription numbers at launch or is there a very large population of MMORPG gamers just waiting for a decent new MMORPG?

LOTRO and EVE (maybe Aion too) are the only games doing good atm. WoW is decreasing, I wonder if they are preparing WoW2 already. Even just announcing WoW2 would probably own the next few MMORPGs to come out.


AoC lost a lot of subscribers as they banned a great deal of the village crafters early on when entire guilds were giving them money to build the guild village within 2 weeks of release. I got banned for 2 weeks because they couldnt be bothered to check where the gold came from. We were the first guild on server to have lv50s and we all quit within 2 months due to way we were treated with bugs and gms.

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.15 16:38:00 - [51]
 

Edited by: CyberGh0st on 15/07/2010 16:40:25

Originally by: RedLion
eve is deaded!

less serious: SecondLife isn't one shard?!


Meh, damn these people who have no clue and say Second Life is not a single shard ...

So to answer your question, Second Life is a single shard !

Oh and I recently received new numbers from CCP, they started with 361,389 active paying subscriptions this months :p
This is their biggest jump in subscriptions since release.


Jim McGregor
Posted - 2010.07.15 16:56:00 - [52]
 

Edited by: Jim McGregor on 15/07/2010 16:56:47
Originally by: Rodj Blake
Oh my, look at WAR.


I looked and Im laughing. :)

Everybody tried it and almost everybody hated it, thats what that graph says.


Alhambra Trellane
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2010.07.15 17:34:00 - [53]
 

How would you like to be the poor bastard who explains to Age of Conan shareholders why their investment was lost in a flurry of surprise buttsex?

That's gotta burn; even with lube.

KaarBaak
Minmatar
Seatec Astronomy
Posted - 2010.07.16 02:21:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Dztrgovac
Activisions greed will doom WOW. Independent Blizz might have had much slower sub numbers after 7-8 millions but would have likely lived longer than trainwreck in action will.
WOW will peak again when Cataclysm goes out, but after that initial increase a decrease faster than current one will start.


They've been saying the same thing about SOEs purchase of Verant...yet things are fine there. It will take a looooong time for a 12M sub game to slowly die out.

KB

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2010.07.16 06:54:00 - [55]
 

Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 16/07/2010 06:58:53
Originally by: Ran Khanon
Impresive to see the AOC and WAR failures so clearly.

Especially nice to see that their HUGE marketing budgets and aggressive secondary and tertiary, etc. advertising campaigns haven't done much for them at all.

'Word of mouth' surely made a comeback since the interwebz.




The same can be said, for LOTR, D&D and ST:O. It seems a strong historical brand is almost a handicap, a spike on day-zero subs, but then an invariable decline, perhaps high expectations leading to disappointment.


Originally by: Culmen

WHAT THE HELL IS DOFUS?

I know it some free to play RPG.
but has anyone here actually played it?
It's bigger then Eve and actually growing too...


I had to google that one as well, my impression is that it's a MMOG for the Teletubie Generation. I much prefer being being Generation-X, which is cool and sophisticated.

Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
Posted - 2010.07.16 08:32:00 - [56]
 

Edited by: Alain Kinsella on 16/07/2010 08:41:37
Edited by: Alain Kinsella on 16/07/2010 08:40:52
Nearly fell out of my chair laughing, regarding WAR and AoC (for reasons mentioned already). And yes, word-of-mouth is alive and well - Heard of both, wanted nothing to do with them.

Same goes for Second Life (though its a bitter laugh) - It's showing a sharp drop that started when Kingdon became CEO. It should hopefully revive now that Philip has taken it back for awhile.

Regarding SL:
-> Yes, one 'shard' though its multiple 'land' simulators touching each other (similar to the 'grid' system seen in Eve space, for interactions). If you use a corner (four sims) then you can get a pretty decent local concurrency.

-> Yes, there's been some pretty horrid decisions made in the original write up (circa late 2003), which they've spent the next 6-7 years trying to fix. They've made good inroads (particularly with physics) but the handoff between sims is still a major issue.

-> Nope, its not a game, not by any stretch. Most of the enthusiasts (I used to be one) call it 'Metaverse.'

-> Note that you cannot 'cancel' an account - the Basic account is effectively a Free-to-play setup, and any objects you make must stay permanently in the DB in case someone else has a copy. So subscription numbers should be considered suspect here. Concurrency is what matters.

-----

Kingdon's reign this past year should be a sharp warning to CCP, actually. Just like the Activision mess discussed last week, he wanted to target SL in order to get more money out of the playerbase. His solution was to market it for Corporate use - at any cost to the playerbase (and you can imagine the reaction to that).

Anyway, the content developers won out eventually, which is why I've not been as freaked out about the CSM5 minutes. I think the CSM, as our voice, should be able to at least nudge things more in favor of the older Eve playerbase.

[Edit to make the points clearer to read]

CyberGh0st
Minmatar
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
Posted - 2010.07.17 20:53:00 - [57]
 

Edited by: CyberGh0st on 17/07/2010 21:06:51

Originally by: Alain Kinsella
Edited by: Alain Kinsella on 16/07/2010 08:41:37
Edited by: Alain Kinsella on 16/07/2010 08:40:52
Nearly fell out of my chair laughing, regarding WAR and AoC (for reasons mentioned already). And yes, word-of-mouth is alive and well - Heard of both, wanted nothing to do with them.

Same goes for Second Life (though its a bitter laugh) - It's showing a sharp drop that started when Kingdon became CEO. It should hopefully revive now that Philip has taken it back for awhile.

Regarding SL:
-> Yes, one 'shard' though its multiple 'land' simulators touching each other (similar to the 'grid' system seen in Eve space, for interactions). If you use a corner (four sims) then you can get a pretty decent local concurrency.

-> Yes, there's been some pretty horrid decisions made in the original write up (circa late 2003), which they've spent the next 6-7 years trying to fix. They've made good inroads (particularly with physics) but the handoff between sims is still a major issue.

-> Nope, its not a game, not by any stretch. Most of the enthusiasts (I used to be one) call it 'Metaverse.'

-> Note that you cannot 'cancel' an account - the Basic account is effectively a Free-to-play setup, and any objects you make must stay permanently in the DB in case someone else has a copy. So subscription numbers should be considered suspect here. Concurrency is what matters.

-----

Kingdon's reign this past year should be a sharp warning to CCP, actually. Just like the Activision mess discussed last week, he wanted to target SL in order to get more money out of the playerbase. His solution was to market it for Corporate use - at any cost to the playerbase (and you can imagine the reaction to that).

Anyway, the content developers won out eventually, which is why I've not been as freaked out about the CSM5 minutes. I think the CSM, as our voice, should be able to at least nudge things more in favor of the older Eve playerbase.

[Edit to make the points clearer to read]


Pretty much agree with most what you said.

The subscription numbers on my site for Second Life are old tho, they are premium subscribers, so they are perfectly relevant, however I have received or found no updates for them.

They also use other means to show player activity, one of them is of course PCU ( Peak Concurrent Users ) like you said, the other 3 are MUUL ( monthly unique user logins each 30 days ) currently at 1,040,316 , MUURL ( Monthly Unique User Repeat Logins each 30 days ) currently at 826214 and recently I found URSL ( Unique residents spending L$ per month ) currently at 517000.

Now I don't really know where you seen this heavy drop in users. There was some stagnation in the MUUL and MUURL numbers, but they are going up again. The only significant drop in users I have noticed was PCU numbers when Linden Labs added and enforced the new bot policy, in april 2009, which I thought was a very good thing.




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