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blankseplocked Akita T - 20 billion ISK wager on Mineral Basket Prices
 
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Alice Celadon
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2010.07.22 00:42:00 - [271]
 

The real shocker here that I don't see any of the big names touting is that CCP MAY HAVE GOTTEN INDUSTRY BALANCE RIGHT THIS TIME.

The ingrained MD mantras "miners think minerals are free and mining macros will always saturate the market down to insurance levels" may no longer apply with the Meta0 nerf and a careful rebalance undertaken with enough data and planning involved. I await the new MD platitudes with baited mouse clicks.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.07.22 02:05:00 - [272]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 22/07/2010 02:05:31

_

They might have gotten it right ?
I seriously doubt it.
Slightly less wrong, maybe, but right... nah.

Well, let's count'em all... all the changes made by CCP and other things that happened that worked on mineral prices and the mining profession:
* DRASTICALLY lowered insurance payouts (no more IER demand),
* widescreen changes that forced quite a few macros/bots to malfunction, but they'll rebound eventually if they haven't already (less supply),
* meta 0 rebalance that made quite a few mission-runners change their loot/salvage patterns (but you never know how things will eventually settle),
* additional lowends added to some 0.0 ores making 0.0 slightly less reliable on empire-obtained resources and decreasing the need to export highends (but full effect is still to be seen),
* capship-capable pilots attracted by cheaper capitals (increasing demand) PLUS allegedly some recent massive wars breaking out (ramping up capship demand even more),
* and last but not least the recent Hulkageddon that while running worked on both the supply and the demand side of things (less supply due to dead barges and miners avoiding mining, more demand for the ganker ships).

Oh, and let's not forget, the hottest part of the summer is almost always the part where activity levels drop EVE-wide thanks to the end of the school/university study year and vacation season.

Until shortly before Hulkageddon-III, things were heading pretty much in the "trending towards new IER breakeven" direction, then they rebounded. While H3 alone is doubtful to have had this effect, some of the latter mentioned things most likely had a hand in it all.
While I am almost certain I will lose the bet in less than 24h thanks to mineral prices rebounding above the "undecided" level before the final deadline, I am also still pretty confident they will eventually end up near the new IER breakeven... not so confident on the timeline though.


Well, one thing did come out of this though : it looks like lowsec ores might actually have a chance to become slightly more valuable than highsec ores again.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.07.22 02:34:00 - [273]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 22/07/2010 02:37:14

21 July data :

Mineral basket graphs

NEW : Relative mineral values graph (for Raven perfect build)

21jul XLS


James Tritanius
Posted - 2010.07.22 05:16:00 - [274]
 

It doesn't really look good for Akita...

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.07.22 07:23:00 - [275]
 

It's that damn pesky Mexallon's fault Laughing

Uppsy Daisy
Caldari
Deteis Industries
Posted - 2010.07.22 08:35:00 - [276]
 

Originally by: Tiruriku
Originally by: Uppsy Daisy

And hey! I like Akita!


The real winner here has got to be Uppsy Daisy. Brilliant strategy, I must say Very Happy

1. Kept a post authored by you on the MD front page for over two months with nearly 30k views, great rep building
2. Won (or will likely win) money but only bet against Akita to get things rolling and 'just for fun' as not to make any enemies
3. Use any anti-akita sentiment to get the deep pockets to influence prices

I joke of course.

Could an Uppsy Daisy IPO dealing with mineral speculation be next? Smile



Mwahahahahaaa! I am in fact an evil genius.

Miss AmarrPriceCheck
Posted - 2010.07.23 01:21:00 - [277]
 

So, is this over? And what's everyone's pet theory as to why Mex and only Mex is spiking so hard?

Alice Celadon
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2010.07.23 02:17:00 - [278]
 

Akita, your response had a lot of "eventually" and "we'll see how that settles" in it. That's all well and good, but the confidence with which you made your mineral basket bets over the time span of a month belies the truth: EVE markets react and correct swiftly.

When you have 100k+ operators with nearly perfect material transport, industrial flexibility, and monetary liquidity it should be expected.

I don't like CCP getting it right anymore that you do. Whatever will I whine and cluck my tongue about now? But seriously at some point in the next few months it's going to become undeniable that the Era of the IER Floor is over.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.07.23 02:33:00 - [279]
 


22.07.2010 : 67,416,291 ISK (2.49/4.67/33.63/58.78/137.16/1,041.82/2,375.73) - Thu - JD4 - BET LOST

Originally by: Alice Celadon
But seriously at some point in the next few months it's going to become undeniable that the Era of the IER Floor is over.

The era of IER floor was over before the Tyrannis patch went live, from the moment they announced adjustable insurance payouts. It was never really something under doubt.

Quote:
Akita, your response had a lot of "eventually" and "we'll see how that settles" in it. That's all well and good, but the confidence with which you made your mineral basket bets over the time span of a month belies the truth: EVE markets react and correct swiftly.

My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand. Then in this thread it was revised to include a loose timeline and some trigger values, to make the bet more attractive. After nobody took that either, it was revised again to include even harsher rules and time constraints, and finally just a few people took it.

I might have lost this bet according to the terms agreed upon in this thread, but I still believe this rebound in mineral prices won't last very long.
My response obviously had to have a lot of "eventually" in it because, well, I have no idea when the boys fighting with them loads of capships are going to settle down a little, I have no idea how long it will take from miners scared off by Hulkageddon to get back to mining, and no idea how many bot-users CCP banned recently and how long they'll need to get back on track... to name but the strongest probable influences on recent mineral prices.

P.S. Also, what the heck, Mexallon Laughing

Shar Tegral
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:30:00 - [280]
 

Akita T eve-mailed me about his/her loss on this bet. I'll get started making a list of all those who put in and get them there stake and winnings back in the next day or two.

Minus a 25% handler's fee right?

/joke.

James Tritanius
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:46:00 - [281]
 

HOORAY!

/dances

Shar Tegral
Posted - 2010.07.23 04:52:00 - [282]
 

Here's the list:

Person Bet Transferred
Charles37 100,000,000.00 200,000,000.00
Uppsy Daisy 250,000,000.00 500,000,000.00
Tiruriku 500,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00
Samroski 50,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
Makro SSRI 500,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00
Llyandrian 100,000,000.00 200,000,000.00

Congrats to the winners, congrats to everyone who participated in the thread.

Charles37
Posted - 2010.07.23 05:19:00 - [283]
 

Confirming that I received 200m isk from Shar.

It's been a fun run, and while I do think that circumstance (and maybe a few anti Akita individuals) conspired to make the bet work out in favor of the 'no crash' group I think it spawned some interesting discussions and was an enjoyable, or at the very least entertaining, experience not for only those involved but many of the other posters on the board as well.


altinateee
Posted - 2010.07.23 06:41:00 - [284]
 

One thing about market calls in general, or two,

1) The easiest way to look like an expert is to be bearish
2) Be a constant bear and one day you will "eventually" be correct, and all will hail you

Uppsy Daisy
Caldari
Deteis Industries
Posted - 2010.07.23 08:00:00 - [285]
 

Edited by: Uppsy Daisy on 23/07/2010 08:00:41
Originally by: Akita T

My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand. Then in this thread it was revised to include a loose timeline and some trigger values, to make the bet more attractive. After nobody took that either, it was revised again to include even harsher rules and time constraints, and finally just a few people took it.

I might have lost this bet according to the terms agreed upon in this thread, but I still believe this rebound in mineral prices won't last very long.
My response obviously had to have a lot of "eventually" in it because, well, I have no idea when the boys fighting with them loads of capships are going to settle down a little, I have no idea how long it will take from miners scared off by Hulkageddon to get back to mining, and no idea how many bot-users CCP banned recently and how long they'll need to get back on track... to name but the strongest probable influences on recent mineral prices.

P.S. Also, what the heck, Mexallon Laughing



I must say, I am extremely surprised (and grateful) to be on the receiving end of this. I don't really feel like I deserve anything, being such a n00b in this forum.

Anyway, on to my Mineral Bond IPO now... Shocked

(Thanks also to Shar Tegral)

James Tritanius
Posted - 2010.07.23 14:57:00 - [286]
 

Posting to confirm that I have received 200,000,000 bet rewards from Akita himself.

Shar Tegral
Posted - 2010.07.23 15:05:00 - [287]
 

Originally by: altinateee
Drivel

How does your liver taste?
I only wonder as your envy is showing.

Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2010.07.23 18:27:00 - [288]
 


Confirming settlement recieved.

pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2010.07.23 23:52:00 - [289]
 

Originally by: pmchem
Looking forward to the post-judgment day mineral drop when all the people betting against you can de-leverage their manipulation investments.


And, here it comes. Looking at the price histories of minerals, every single one has either dropped or is holding steady the past 2 days. If that continues through the weekend it'd be pretty telling, since weekends are often high demand.

Samroski
Games Inc.
Posted - 2010.07.24 12:39:00 - [290]
 

Originally by: Shar Tegral
Here's the list:

Person Bet Transferred
Samroski 50,000,000.00 100,000,000.00

Congrats to the winners, congrats to everyone who participated in the thread.


Received. Thanks.

My previous comments on the anti-akita forum sentiment were purely in jest :)

I do think Akita influences the forums. How much one man can influence the Eve market is debatable.

I believe there are multiple influences on the market, some of which may not be obvious or quantifiable. Thus, I felt relatively secure while placing my bet. Still amazed why many did not, especially when Akita stacked the odds against himself.

Tiruriku
Posted - 2010.07.25 03:46:00 - [291]
 

Confirming receipt.

Thank you to shar for acting as third party and especially for waiving your fee.

Thank you to Uppsy Daisy for getting the thread going, it was fun.

And thank you to Akita for doing all the actual work, e.g. posting and graphing daily updates so nobody else had to.

Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.07.25 10:29:00 - [292]
 

Edited by: Dr Nefarius on 25/07/2010 10:31:32
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1352113

Could perhaps this small buyorder on capitals have had some notable effect on the minerals price? If someone started buying up minerals in the forge for mineral compression to this order, would it be enough to hold up the market for a while?

ed: too lazy to check the mineral cost with new values, but I'd guess it's over 500 b in minerals for that order.


Molic Blackbird
Gallente
Orion Faction Industries
Posted - 2010.07.25 16:50:00 - [293]
 

Originally by: Akita T


My initial point was that prices will drop to near whatever the IER was right after Tyrannis went live, and by that I still stand.




I'll put up a 5b ISK bet that the Raven basket price hasn't reach the 55m ISK mark on Oct 1st.


Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
Chubby Chuppers Chubba Chups
Posted - 2010.07.25 23:20:00 - [294]
 

nobody messes with Akita T and gets away with it!

SKUNK

Melina Havlock
Vivid Fossils Inc.
Posted - 2010.07.26 00:57:00 - [295]
 

Congrats to the winners, was keeping my eye on this thread a bit.

Would love to see more public wagers like this TBH Laughing

Uppsy Daisy
Caldari
Deteis Industries
Posted - 2010.07.26 07:48:00 - [296]
 

Happy to put up 500 million (double or quits) on another wager, this one has been interesting!

Future mineral basket prices or maybe PI materials spring to mind as potential ones to go for..

Would be nice to see one of the other vocal forum gurus backing it..


Andrea Griffin
Posted - 2010.07.27 19:35:00 - [297]
 

Originally by: Le Skunk
nobody messes with Akita T and gets away with it!

SKUNK
QFT. Very Happy

Also, this has been a very interesting ride with some great discussion. I learned a lot from this thread. Thanks everyone!

Heimer
Minmatar
Republic University
Posted - 2010.07.28 06:29:00 - [298]
 

Wait.... mineral prices have rebounded? *tries to find piles of minerals in a dusty hangar....*

Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
Posted - 2010.07.28 06:55:00 - [299]
 

Looks like I can now pull that 200b out of mex. Get ready for a crash.

Kharass Al'Quam
Minmatar
Fleet of Doom
Phoenix Virtue
Posted - 2010.08.20 16:09:00 - [300]
 

I might not be a market guru that write many words, but i sure like being right.



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