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Madame Currie
Posted - 2010.04.06 13:23:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: Madame Currie on 06/04/2010 13:24:11
After having seen the so far known end products of planetary interaction, I did a short check in jita to see how big the market potential of this items is and got a little nervous.

Looking at the traded volumes it doesn't seem, that PI will be able to give back enough financial payback to support a large base of PI producers. Did anybody at CCP the math and checked what the proposed trade volume of the end products divided by the assumed number of PI users will be, since in the very end, that is the all the income an average pi user could get.

Hope that other more requested products will follow or that my first impression of the market potential was totally wrong.

Verys
I Heart Chaos
Posted - 2010.04.06 13:57:00 - [2]
 

CCP has stated that these are not the final values, amounts and possibly some products because they didn't want to give anyone a head-start just because they tested it before it went live.

However if nobody is interested in producing the final products which will most likely replace goods given out by the npc factions and the demand stays the same prices will rise until it is viable for people to produce.

Madame Currie
Posted - 2010.04.06 20:25:00 - [3]
 

Originally by: Verys

... stays the same prices will rise until it is viable for people to produce.


Your right. But that means that price will be at the lower border of profitability (if at all, since enough people will invest into a command center just to try out, and beeing stuck with the initial investment) and it also means that not many people will benefit from this expansion. Something like booster production, that is a viable thing for a few players, but don't work for the majority of the players.
Beside, PI should be the reason to hire people in dust. How many people will you personally hire, if there is nothing worth to be defended?

Unless it is just a "well let's do anything not costing to much before we release incarna", cpp misses the chance to add a nice mini game within eve.

Mocam
Posted - 2010.04.06 21:19:00 - [4]
 

Just one thought on some of this...


The trivial stuff we can do at this point... I don't expect it to be worth much but the process seems to be raw -> refined/component -> component/sub-assembly -> ... As in we don't even see what we can make for final products yet.

Right now only 2 of the 3 types of processors have schematics for them.

Basic takes raw materials and makes fairly trivial stuff to be used to make components.

Advanced takes components and makes sub-assembly type stuff.

High Tech -- you can probably safely assume these will take the sub-assemblies and make products.

Now if you take a good look at the components and sub-assemblies, one potential product line seems to be pointed at which cannot be made at this time: Implants. Whether they'll actually let us make them or not, I don't know but there seems to be a lot of stuff that reads like implant parts from the Advanced processors.

Those have decent stickers on them right now and are but 1 potential product we might be able to actually make that has a healthy sticker on it. So we'll just need to wait and see what "final products" we'll be allowed to make before any such cost-to-value assessment can actually be made.

That's my take on it anyway. We're getting an intro/start-up view to the end result and that rarely is going to show huge potential profits from "parts" and "fuels"...

Kanatta Jing
Posted - 2010.04.07 07:10:00 - [5]
 

Starter characters make 100k ISK on a good mission. Thus without skills in highsec and doing a less then ingenious job would probably be expected to pay 100k a day.

Generating POS fuel in 0.0 would be lucrative. It takes a lot of politicking to keep the silk road to Empire open and not everyone can or wants to keep that up. It also takes a defenseless multi-billion ISK ship wandering far from home. The option to sever the umbilical cord to Empire would be worth a premium.

Just imagine replacing all those jump freighters with Iteron Vs skipping through intermittent W-holes for T2 mods. Or even just cutting down the work load of your freighter pilots by 20%.

And has been said, no one knows what the end products, the Tier 5 and 6 items might look like.

Could be Implants, could be the core of the T3 Frigate, could be anything.

Remember also that Skills and ISK are so much in EVE. We have yet to see how we elder players may exploit the PI.

So in ending, My guess is starting at 100k/day ranging to 100k+(X)/day, where X is how awesome PI gets.

Deep1
Posted - 2010.04.07 13:17:00 - [6]
 

No it will not pay your bill. Any thing that is easy to come to will have most off the profit removed verry fast - not by CCP but by players.

You may get lucky and find a nice and make some ISK or even a great profit but as all in EVE not an easy thing.

am i the only one that see this as just the start of PI specc in producktions the current stuff on test server is " just " NPC stuff that is used as POS fuel and a bit in production of Tech2 and other items.

I see PI as a produser of stuff to DUST 514 - since that type of game realy don't need a buid side.
And PI as a producer of all the items that Waking in staions - Incarna will use when i comes out i hear utimo 2030.

The reson i see it as dead profit rigth now is that the taget is Pos mangers and producers of other stuff - and that kind of players allreadyis used to run the numbers ..

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2010.04.07 13:52:00 - [7]
 

I hope the economical impact will be better researched than last time they introduced new stuff, that happened with wormholes and t3 stuff. Pretty poor show there and still the wormhole item market is in a bad shape. If it wouldnt be for those artificial npc buy orders which would prop up the market a lot less people would do wormholes.

What was the basic mistake with wormholes (economically)?

There was no DEMAND of items from wormholes. But a huge SUPPLY. CCP then removed a lot of the supply with their npc buy orders. This way we got a statical and artificial market without check and balances. Additionally now everyone is dependent on those buy orders and if CCP would want to remove them then the outcry would be huge. Furthermore those npc buy orders act as another isk source.

What are the lessons for PI?

Introduce a huge player driven demand. A player driven demand for PI items could be created when building PI structures would need those items. If CCP is afraid that the market initially wont start up being in a deadlock state, then they could introduce some artificial npc supply of materials for a while. Npc supply is much better than npc demand as done with wormhole stuff. Npc supply acts as an isk sink, also the removal can be gracefully done without harming people's income.

PI should offer the opportunities for selling services
Ideal would be if PI would allow us to become active in the tertiary market, selling various services: It should be possible that someone could allow others to use their links for isk. Several payment models should be available and supported with in-game mechanics (flat use, m3 based etc.).

Oh well ... maybe in some future expansion... after Incarna... next year or next decade... Crying or Very sad


Catari Taga
Centre Of Attention
Middle of Nowhere
Posted - 2010.04.07 14:24:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
I hope the economical impact will be better researched than last time they introduced new stuff, that happened with wormholes and t3 stuff. Pretty poor show there and still the wormhole item market is in a bad shape. If it wouldnt be for those artificial npc buy orders which would prop up the market a lot less people would do wormholes.

What was the basic mistake with wormholes (economically)?

There was no DEMAND of items from wormholes. But a huge SUPPLY. CCP then removed a lot of the supply with their npc buy orders. This way we got a statical and artificial market without check and balances. Additionally now everyone is dependent on those buy orders and if CCP would want to remove them then the outcry would be huge. Furthermore those npc buy orders act as another isk source.


You have no idea what you are talking about. Wormhole "loot" is basically bounties for sleeper ships, only you need to turn them in, giving other players the chance to take them from you. It has nothing to do with T3. There was never intended to be a market for the loot, and the few poor souls selling their stuff at half-NPC price or trying to sell it for more than NPC price do not constitute a market.

PI on the other hand has instant demand because those products are currently and constantly needed in the economy.

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2010.04.07 15:19:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Catari Taga
Originally by: Gnulpie
I hope the economical impact will be better researched than last time they introduced new stuff, that happened with wormholes and t3 stuff. Pretty poor show there and still the wormhole item market is in a bad shape. If it wouldnt be for those artificial npc buy orders which would prop up the market a lot less people would do wormholes.

What was the basic mistake with wormholes (economically)?

There was no DEMAND of items from wormholes. But a huge SUPPLY. CCP then removed a lot of the supply with their npc buy orders. This way we got a statical and artificial market without check and balances. Additionally now everyone is dependent on those buy orders and if CCP would want to remove them then the outcry would be huge. Furthermore those npc buy orders act as another isk source.


Wormhole "loot" is basically bounties for sleeper ships, only you need to turn them in, giving other players the chance to take them from you. It has nothing to do with T3. There was never intended to be a market for the loot, and the few poor souls selling their stuff at half-NPC price or trying to sell it for more than NPC price do not constitute a market.


"There was never intended to be a market for the loot" : that is the problem and lack with wormhole loot.

Wormhole loot is - except for nanoribbins - pretty worthless. Tags, as drops, are the only valuable things which you can grab quickly. Gas is pretty worthless also. Datacores are worthless. RAM has some small value because you can reprocess it. Wrecked/malfunctioning/intact stuff needs spezialiced equipment but is worth a lot. Minerals are worth a lot also.

Only reason that players 'do' quickly some wormholes are those ancient relicts and ... tags. But tags are static, do not improve player interaction, dont add to a player driven economy. They are just artificial and a quick hack to substitute a market with real demand/supply. This limits the gameplay. This limits the potential of wormholes and Eve in general. It also adds a couple of problems - being an additional isk source is one of them. Another problem is that there is no check-and-balance from the regular market. Since tags give always the same isk the player can and do shoot the sleepers regardless and so the other items from sleepers(salvage etc.) flood the market and become worthless, thus destroying a secondary market and gameplay around this.

Designing the PI economy in a way that no artifical npc buy orders are necessary would help a lot. It would prevent above outlined problems. One way I suggested earlier: increase player demand drastically and if necessary introduce temporary npc sell orders until the market got filled with enough players.

Isn't the demand there already? You can produce some pos fuel. But until the npc pos fuel sell orders aren't removed this demand isn't enough by far.

That is the whole thing I am talking about. We need a lot more demand of PI stuff. Demand for basic stuff, demand for intermediate, demand for advanced. We need A LOT of demand. TONS of it.

I explained why I think that we need a lot demand, by pointing out to wormholes and why that did fail. Sleeper salvage IS worthless except few cases. And that only because tags can be sold to npcs in unlimted quantities for a fixed price. That is how economy works. I hope CCP isn't doing the same mistake twice.

Catari Taga
Centre Of Attention
Middle of Nowhere
Posted - 2010.04.07 16:10:00 - [10]
 

Edited by: Catari Taga on 07/04/2010 16:09:52
Originally by: Gnulpie
Wormhole loot is - except for nanoribbins - pretty worthless. Tags, as drops, are the only valuable things which you can grab quickly. Gas is pretty worthless also. Datacores are worthless. RAM has some small value because you can reprocess it. Wrecked/malfunctioning/intact stuff needs spezialiced equipment but is worth a lot. Minerals are worth a lot also.

Huh? Nanoribbons are salvage, not loot, and they are used for t3 production. Also gas is one of the most profitable things you can mine/harvest in this game, and is also used for T3 production. That entire market is player driven, there is not a single NPC sell or buy order involved. If profits are not high enough to your liking then that's the result of the player market, not something CCP has done (*). I maintain you have no idea what you are talking about.

(*) The only thing CCP did mess up big time is datacore drop rates, leading to everybody just farming the talocan battleship wrecks and leaving the rest of the sites alone, which in turns makes all higher class wormholes full of radar sites that noone wants to probe or otherwise make use of, but that is a game design issue, not a problem of an unfree market.

Trimutius III
Avalon Guards
Gypsy Band
Posted - 2010.04.07 16:30:00 - [11]
 

Edited by: Trimutius III on 07/04/2010 16:31:37
Originally by: Madame Currie
Edited by: Madame Currie on 06/04/2010 13:24:11
After having seen the so far known end products of planetary interaction, I did a short check in jita to see how big the market potential of this items is and got a little nervous.

Looking at the traded volumes it doesn't seem, that PI will be able to give back enough financial payback to support a large base of PI producers. Did anybody at CCP the math and checked what the proposed trade volume of the end products divided by the assumed number of PI users will be, since in the very end, that is the all the income an average pi user could get.

Hope that other more requested products will follow or that my first impression of the market potential was totally wrong.



1) Your impression about market potential is wrong.. Many people don't buy trade goods in trade hubs. Because they are sold by NPCs, so u can buy it from NPC cheaper then in Jita and probably no so far from your home system. So to get reasonable numbers you should check all empire regions (including low sec regions)
2) There will be some new stuff as i understood. But CCP don't won't to tell us what it is...
3) You assumed potential income based on raw materials, but end materials probably will yeild much more

Di Mulle
Posted - 2010.04.07 20:04:00 - [12]
 

Edited by: Di Mulle on 08/04/2010 09:49:41
Edited by: Di Mulle on 08/04/2010 09:42:55
Originally by: Gnulpie

One way I suggested earlier: increase player demand drastically and if necessary introduce temporary npc sell orders until the market got filled with enough players.


Nice and dandy, yeah. Now, how you DRASTICALLY increase demand for something specific? (Hint: demand in general is limited. Increasing it is possible in one way only, by encouraging people to blow more ships. As it appears, not an easiest thing to do.)
Other way to drastically increase demand for something specific is to drastically reduce demand for something else. In case of WH and T3 it is to make T3 overpowered and leaving older tiers obsolete. Say hello to next epic set.

Originally by: Gnulpie
Only reason that players 'do' quickly some wormholes are those ancient relicts and ... tags. But tags are static, do not improve player interaction, dont add to a player driven economy. They are just artificial and a quick hack to substitute a market with real demand/supply. This limits the gameplay.


So do the missions. If you want to lure people into WH, you need to offer something at least comparable to missions. You can't do that with T3 materials only, because it either will make T3 ships uber expensive- so suddenly no demand at all, or, as above, you need to sacrifice something existing.
Hence the tags. However, they are only as evil as bounties from other rats. Actually, they are kind of bounties, nothing more.

Originally by: Gnulpie
Isn't the demand there already? You can produce some pos fuel. But until the npc pos fuel sell orders aren't removed this demand isn't enough by far.


Wrong. Even after removal of NPC sell orders demand for that fuel will never be sky high. Hint again, you only need so much of it.
Even worse, any stuff which is currently NPC-seeded and will be replaced by player-made will get a big downward momentum of price at the beginning. This is because you can't remove NPC orders overnight and while they exist they will provide a hard cap for a price. Thus competition will press prices one way - down.

Originally by: Gnulpie
That is the whole thing I am talking about. We need a lot more demand of PI stuff. Demand for basic stuff, demand for intermediate, demand for advanced. We need A LOT of demand. TONS of it.


Mantras... First, you don't need demand for basic, advanced, secondary, tertiary etc. stuff by itself. You need demand for FINAL stuff. And options for said demand are limited.

Originally by: Gnulpie
I explained why I think that we need a lot demand, by pointing out to wormholes and why that did fail. Sleeper salvage IS worthless except few cases. And that only because tags can be sold to npcs in unlimted quantities for a fixed price. That is how economy works. I hope CCP isn't doing the same mistake twice.


Sleeper salvage isn't worthless. It is worth what people are going to pay for that, i.e. what they agree to pay for T3 ships. Tags have nothing to do about that. That fact that price distribution amongst various sleeper stuff is kinda lame is another question.


 

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