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Ariel Demon
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2009.11.18 17:02:00 - [211]
 

Edited by: Ariel Demon on 18/11/2009 17:47:50
<-- accidental Turiel alt post

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Anyone notice that the platinum market has shot up to 2400 Sell/2000 Buy.(like within 12 hours)

It had been hovering @ 1880 Sell/1800 Buy.

Thoughts?


I expect it's just another small-ish scale manipulation, there's a lot of them around like the racial armor plates I mentioned the other day. Neodymium also jumped by another 1K, but that was pretty much expected given the steady sequence of rises its been showing - chromium had decent rise too but the buy orders pretty much all got killed fairly quickly by people off-loading stock.


Triladir
Gallente
Invictus Australis
BricK sQuAD.
Posted - 2009.11.18 22:50:00 - [212]
 

Edited by: Triladir on 18/11/2009 22:51:46
The real winners are the humble, hard working folk like me who mine rather than buy/sell this stuff...

The more you guys manipulate the market up the more my moon goo and reaction products sell for. The fuel costs are going down but the mineral prices are going up... Makes me a happy, happy camper Razz

Thanks guys - you're champs... Razz


Captain Nao
State War Academy
Posted - 2009.11.19 00:09:00 - [213]
 


Check this article. Article from FDA for Technetium shortage.

http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/PostmarketDrugSafetyInformationforPatientsandProviders/ucm176226.htm

Oops wrong forum..?

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 01:26:00 - [214]
 

Platinum market seems to be going down again. There's just no demand for it as is. Pure speculation increased the price by over 1000/unit(from 18-28). Amazing to watch, Cashed in on about 150mil.

Ariel Demon
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2009.11.19 01:32:00 - [215]
 

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Platinum market seems to be going down again. There's just no demand for it as is. Pure speculation increased the price by over 1000/unit(from 18-28). Amazing to watch, Cashed in on about 150mil.


Dunno what market you're looking at but Jita Plat just saw a buying-spree/manipulation in the last 48 hours that took sell orders up from 1900 to 2800, and buy orders are over 2000. It's quite possible that it's gone up too high and will subsequently stall and crash again, but I expect plat will stay over 1500 at least until dominion hits - probably higher - and then it will rise some more.

Tesal
Posted - 2009.11.19 04:45:00 - [216]
 

People are setting up tripwire orders all over the place. Tiny orders so they can track prices.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 05:20:00 - [217]
 

I agree, it will stay above 1500, I bought @ 1800 and sold to buy orders @ 2100, but I guarantee it won't maintain @ 2800. No one is buying any for that cost.

It'll drop back to down sell orders of 2k.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.19 05:40:00 - [218]
 

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
I guarantee it won't maintain @ 2800. No one is buying any for that cost.



Oh, really? Smile

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 05:49:00 - [219]
 

Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.19 12:44:00 - [220]
 

Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)


Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week. Just under 200K of mine sold at 2650.

I don't know what kind of stable price level it could reach right now and I think worrying about it is pretty pointless because there's going to be a lot of manipulations happening in Chrom/Plat/Tech/Neo, and also in the minor moon mins like what happened to Caesium and Scandium over the last two weeks.

I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.


Disclosure: I still have 1m units of plat, bought at 1100/unit, it's definitely in my interests for it to keep going up Smile


EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.19 14:20:00 - [221]
 

as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:

fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity

so what my analysis is showing:
Assumptions:
1 POS fuel p/m is 300m
2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff)
3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders
4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math)
5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity)
6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials
7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
9 and so on

The result:
- you did earn just about 2.2b ISK
- your ROI was 55.96%

if you modify #6 to buyorder price
- you earn about 590m ISK
- your ROI was about 15%

lets assume (again Rolling Eyes ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.

I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?

My head hurts Crying or Very sad

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.19 15:02:00 - [222]
 

Originally by: Julian Koll
as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:

fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity

so what my analysis is showing:
Assumptions:
1 POS fuel p/m is 300m
2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff)
3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders
4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math)
5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity)
6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials
7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
9 and so on

The result:
- you did earn just about 2.2b ISK
- your ROI was 55.96%

if you modify #6 to buyorder price
- you earn about 590m ISK
- your ROI was about 15%

lets assume (again Rolling Eyes ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.

I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?

My head hurts Crying or Very sad


FC price hasn't gone down nearly as much as its main raw materials have. Yes both it and they they are going to go down more, the current resurgence of FC's is somewhat anomalous in this regard.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.19 16:30:00 - [223]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 19/11/2009 16:37:00

Originally by: Julian Koll
[...]lets assume (again Rolling Eyes ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.
I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?

It's actually pretty simple - they're still profitable to make BECAUSE they're about to tank Laughing

The demand right now is similar to the demand a month or two ago. Still, most people are trying to get out of it and liquidate stocks, but they want to liquidate stocks at prices as high as possible, drawing it out to the last minute.
At the same time, the fact that a lot of people are starting to liquidate means prices for the current "big bill" materials (dyspro/prom) also start tanking, since less of them are being consumed. But since prices for primary materials are falling, reactions become even more profitable, for the time being.
But remember the part about them still being at the same demand ? That means at least once (probably more than just once until the patch), there will be a temporary shortage, and a price stabilization or even increase (depending on actual temporary shortage gravity, reaction lag, stockpile holder's panic levels, etc).
All in all, the evolution of FC price is not all that weird once you look at the big picture.
As soon as the expansion hits and the REAL demand for them drops, they'll be dropping in price like a rock, very, very fast.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.19 19:20:00 - [224]
 

The carbides are bugging me again. The four armor plates have all jumped up significant amounts with no visible means of support... the base materials like tungsten have risen a bit, but the intermediate materials, the carbides, are all sliding down Confused

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 20:08:00 - [225]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)


Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week. Just under 200K of mine sold at 2650.

I don't know what kind of stable price level it could reach right now and I think worrying about it is pretty pointless because there's going to be a lot of manipulations happening in Chrom/Plat/Tech/Neo, and also in the minor moon mins like what happened to Caesium and Scandium over the last two weeks.

I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.


Disclosure: I still have 1m units of plat, bought at 1100/unit, it's definitely in my interests for it to keep going up Smile


EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.


I was definitely wrong about the plat! Good job on holding on. But I don't think I was wrong about it coming back down. I still think it will come down to the 1800's before it goes back up again. The price has spiked too high without excess demand. But we will see.

I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.

Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
Posted - 2009.11.19 20:34:00 - [226]
 

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 21:10:00 - [227]
 

I guess, the question remains, do you sell if it jumps to 20k, or do you hold out for a better price post dominion.

Thoughts on best exit strategy.

I am thinking I may unload half @ 20 and the other half post dom.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.19 21:13:00 - [228]
 

Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.


I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
Posted - 2009.11.19 21:34:00 - [229]
 

So has it occured to anyone that CCP might go "man we don't like all this speculation" and **** everyone by changing things at the last minute without putting it on Sisi? Laughing

Ariel Demon
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2009.11.19 21:48:00 - [230]
 

Originally by: corestwo
So has it occured to anyone that CCP might go "man we don't like all this speculation" and **** everyone by changing things at the last minute without putting it on Sisi? Laughing


Of course.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.19 22:08:00 - [231]
 

That's the most realistic fix, in my opinion, and the only thing that will keep prices down post patch(after people find out).(If not, tech/neo will go very very high).

But even if they ninja change it, the prices will go up so with a solid exit strategy you will still make boat loads of iskies.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.19 22:46:00 - [232]
 

Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 23:07:43
Interestingly Neodymium is actually a fairly safe bet even IF things are changed, it being an R64, if there's any change to the current plans on sisi (which I by the way judge as less then 30% chance to name an arbitrary number) it will most likely be to put more focus on it and Thulium which has been so cruelly ignored.

EDIT: Buggered we jinxed it, someone just put 5b isk worth of the stuff up under 10k, that'll seriously slow down any rise it might have made otherwise.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.20 01:36:00 - [233]
 

Edited by: xylopia on 20/11/2009 02:18:12
Originally by: Julian Koll
as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:

Generally, when T2 material market becomes stable, there is very little to no profit to make from adv reaction if you purchase every raw materials from Jita.

If you are sitting on some blue goos and buy yellow ones, reaction biz might be actually profitable for a while after dominion patch b/c additional demand on adv material will be ever greater than b4. Does that necessarily mean you should go in <=0.3 space to actually lay your hands on 'em? It's up to you, but mindlessly grinding lvl 4 missions will land you more iskies in safety. Wink

(FYI, all the moons in <= 0.3 system right next highsec around 15 jumps from jita are all regardlessly taken. Murethand and Ostingele might be exceptions but locals there aren't that friendly to new comers YARRRR!!. Logistic, my friend, is BIG issue in T2 reaction biz.)

So, when you see some considerable amount of profit from reactioning, that means something nasty is going on, or simply it wouldn't turn out to be as good-looking as it might be on your sheet.

From my point of view, f.c. and ferrogel will more or less likely become c3ftm, and c86 in terms of market characteristics. It's indeed very interesting how CCP applies their lesson from T3 to T2. ( or coincidence, maybe )

Tesal
Posted - 2009.11.20 03:29:00 - [234]
 

Originally by: xylopia
Edited by: xylopia on 20/11/2009 02:18:12
Originally by: Julian Koll
as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:

Generally, when T2 material market becomes stable, there is very little to no profit to make from adv reaction if you purchase every raw materials from Jita.

If you are sitting on some blue goos and buy yellow ones, reaction biz might be actually profitable for a while after dominion patch b/c additional demand on adv material will be ever greater than b4. Does that necessarily mean you should go in <=0.3 space to actually lay your hands on 'em? It's up to you, but mindlessly grinding lvl 4 missions will land you more iskies in safety. Wink

(FYI, all the moons in <= 0.3 system right next highsec around 15 jumps from jita are all regardlessly taken. Murethand and Ostingele might be exceptions but locals there aren't that friendly to new comers YARRRR!!. Logistic, my friend, is BIG issue in T2 reaction biz.)

So, when you see some considerable amount of profit from reactioning, that means something nasty is going on, or simply it wouldn't turn out to be as good-looking as it might be on your sheet.

From my point of view, f.c. and ferrogel will more or less likely become c3ftm, and c86 in terms of market characteristics. It's indeed very interesting how CCP applies their lesson from T3 to T2. ( or coincidence, maybe )


Profits will depend on ice to a large degree if I am reading this situation right. Was reading in the info thread and Devs commented that there will be a 25% fuel bonus for Sov. Will see how that plays out.

EvilCheez
That's Retarded
FIGHT CLUB INC
Posted - 2009.11.20 18:49:00 - [235]
 

Edited by: EvilCheez on 20/11/2009 19:07:14
This may be slightly off topic, but does anyone know what the hell is up with pyerite ?

EDIT: listened to Eve Morning Report which attributes the rise to cosmoray's exploding ship business....nevermind

Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
Posted - 2009.11.20 19:43:00 - [236]
 

Edited by: Mahke on 20/11/2009 19:47:00
Originally by: EvilCheez
Edited by: EvilCheez on 20/11/2009 19:07:14
This may be slightly off topic, but does anyone know what the hell is up with pyerite ?

EDIT: listened to Eve Morning Report which attributes the rise to cosmoray's exploding ship business....nevermind


Seeing this coming a little ways back, I invested in minerals for an even spread for 50 rokhs (if prices didnt go up could always build and self destruct); EXCEPT pyrite.

I have a good deal of extra pyrite Very Happy. It was far and away the hardest to source in the necessary quantities for BS-insurance-fraud without effecting the local market, and thus would have the most upward pressure.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.20 20:24:00 - [237]
 

Edited by: Turiel Demon on 20/11/2009 23:36:31
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)


Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week.
[...]

I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.
[...]

EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.


I was definitely wrong about the plat! Good job on holding on. But I don't think I was wrong about it coming back down. I still think it will come down to the 1800's before it goes back up again. The price has spiked too high without excess demand. But we will see.

I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.


Well, plat is dropping like a stone now, as expected heh; luckily I was able to offload most between 2300 and 2900, I look forward to buying lower again.

The big Neodymium order is being chipped away piece by piece, so though it may take longer than the 3 days predicted earlier there's a good chance it's going to shoot up towards the 20k level quite soon.


EDIT: whoops there goes Neo

Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
Posted - 2009.11.21 07:53:00 - [238]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
EDIT: whoops there goes Neo

Wink

Ariel Demon
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2009.11.21 11:50:00 - [239]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.


I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.



[highfive]

15k looks to be a good level, it should hold out for at least a day or so even with relatively low volumes on sale, and will let buy orders creep up a bit without the immediate jolt of 20k causing a ricochet. Even a stabilization at 15 seems possible, though I suspect it will still head to 20k by the end of the week even if this weekend doesn't see it happen.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.22 03:49:00 - [240]
 

Originally by: Ariel Demon
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.


I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.


This, not anything else to say, but agree! :)

[highfive]

15k looks to be a good level, it should hold out for at least a day or so even with relatively low volumes on sale, and will let buy orders creep up a bit without the immediate jolt of 20k causing a ricochet. Even a stabilization at 15 seems possible, though I suspect it will still head to 20k by the end of the week even if this weekend doesn't see it happen.


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