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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
Chubby Chuppers Chubba Chups
Posted - 2009.11.16 10:33:00 - [181]
 

Edited by: Le Skunk on 16/11/2009 10:33:20
Taking Akita Ts advice has netted me 2 billion profit so far in plates and processors and i still have stocks.

The only bum note was chromimum which isn't doing anything as of yet. But maybe later

Cheers

SKUNK


Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.16 16:10:00 - [182]
 

So, after reading through the forum and this thread it seems as if Technetium is going to be an excellent buy barring any radical changes to the eve moon mining system.

However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)

Is this just from Market fear? It seems that we are mainly speculating against CCP at this point, whether we think they will change the distribution.

People have mentioned a few more minerals. Such as neodyium, platinum and chromium. What are your opinions on those?

I am doing some more research, but thinking of dropping a few bil into tech and holding it until Dominion REGARDLESS of what happens. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

Telta
Posted - 2009.11.16 16:24:00 - [183]
 


Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.16 17:04:00 - [184]
 

Edited by: Tiberizzle on 16/11/2009 23:48:43
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
So, after reading through the forum and this thread it seems as if Technetium is going to be an excellent buy barring any radical changes to the eve moon mining system.

However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)

Is this just from Market fear? It seems that we are mainly speculating against CCP at this point, whether we think they will change the distribution.

People have mentioned a few more minerals. Such as neodyium, platinum and chromium. What are your opinions on those?

I am doing some more research, but thinking of dropping a few bil into tech and holding it until Dominion REGARDLESS of what happens. Anyone have any thoughts on that?


I think at this point it's a pretty safe bet that we're not going to see a change to blueprints on Singularity before Dominion. It follows that the price will probably be trending upwards (with some fluctuation) at least until Dominion. Beyond Dominion there is some uncertainty, but it does appear that Technetium has more room to rise than it does to fall at 10K/unit. Assuming the risk amounts to a coin flip and the maximum projected increase in value, it's a good bet up to around 20K/unit, where the proportional loss and gain possible are roughly equal (a factor of 10 in either direction). At above 20K/unit you would want more certainty than a coin flip to justify the potential payoff.

If you decide to gamble I would do it sooner rather than later. It's still a reasonably good bet now, but it's probably not going to be in another week.

EvilCheez
That's Retarded
FIGHT CLUB INC
Posted - 2009.11.16 18:16:00 - [185]
 

Quote:
However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)


Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25kVery Happy , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.16 19:05:00 - [186]
 

Any thoughts on:

neodyium, platinum and chromium ?

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.16 20:44:00 - [187]
 

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Any thoughts on:

neodyium, platinum and chromium ?


Your right. I'd put the selling at 9-12k right now/ore. After looking through all the market analysis and market data, I can't see it dropping below that even worst case scenario. Not to mention the serious speculation that will probably come on patch day/2-3 days before patch.

I went ahead and nabbed some Technetium. Even if CCP does a silent change(which I believe is the best bet @ this point(if anything will be changed) and also worse case scenario).

I an now contemplating whether it is worth it to dive into Neody/Plat. Going to be doing some more research, I'd like to diversify, but if tech can even hit 20k/pop I will have made a nice profit.

Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
Posted - 2009.11.16 22:58:00 - [188]
 

Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:07:50
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Any thoughts on:

neodyium, platinum and chromium ?


ahaha, failed double post.

That said, I'm making a small play (all my own (non-moon-mineral) plays/long-term investments are tied up/finished and I had some extra capital). What I did was buy a bunch of neo and then bought 10% of that in technetium (actually, fullerites, to be accurate).

The point is, if status quo is preserved, tech prices rise high enough to pay back any losses on the neo with the tech/fullerits.

If CCP nerfs tech, neo becomes one of the next bottlenecks (albeit a much, much less tight one), neo goes up and my losses on tech are relatively insiginificant.

If CCP nerfs both I'm screwed, but, didn't invest more than I can afford to lose so will hurt but not that terrible.

edit: apparently neo is slightly up (4% or so, not huge). Fullerides jumped from 280 to 325, and tech went down to 10k, so I sold my fullerides and rebought my insurance in technetium.

know I'm late to this party but whatever, this is a long-term play, I can afford to wait the months until enough stockpiles run out that dys/pros aren't the bottlenecks anymore (and enjoy the golden age of cheap t2 pvp in the meantime).

Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.16 23:07:00 - [189]
 

Originally by: EvilCheez
Quote:
However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)


Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25kVery Happy , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.


Yeah, I think the volume that actually moved at prices over 30K was less than 100K. I was too far out to short it at 35K, sadly. It was already down to 16K when I got there. Sad

Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
Posted - 2009.11.16 23:25:00 - [190]
 

Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:24:56
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: EvilCheez
Quote:
However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)


Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25kVery Happy , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.


Yeah, I think the volume that actually moved at prices over 30K was less than 100K. I was too far out to short it at 35K, sadly. It was already down to 16K when I got there. Sad


I was buying then (but fullerides, not tech). Almost nothing sold because holding constant costs of other components and pretending cost of reacting is free (lol), fulleride prices implied a tech price of 14-15k during that price spike on tech.

Aresse
Posted - 2009.11.16 23:25:00 - [191]
 

Originally by: Mahke
Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:07:50
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Any thoughts on:

neodyium, platinum and chromium ?


ahaha, failed double post.

That said, I'm making a small play (all my own (non-moon-mineral) plays/long-term investments are tied up/finished and I had some extra capital). What I did was buy a bunch of neo and then bought 10% of that in technetium (actually, fullerites, to be accurate).

The point is, if status quo is preserved, tech prices rise high enough to pay back any losses on the neo with the tech/fullerits.

If CCP nerfs tech, neo becomes one of the next bottlenecks (albeit a much, much less tight one), neo goes up and my losses on tech are relatively insiginificant.

If CCP nerfs both I'm screwed, but, didn't invest more than I can afford to lose so will hurt but not that terrible.

edit: apparently neo is slightly up (4% or so, not huge). Fullerides jumped from 280 to 325, and tech went down to 10k, so I sold my fullerides and rebought my insurance in technetium.

know I'm late to this party but whatever, this is a long-term play, I can afford to wait the months until enough stockpiles run out that dys/pros aren't the bottlenecks anymore (and enjoy the golden age of cheap t2 pvp in the meantime).


Buying @ ~2k p/u = teh sex.

Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
Posted - 2009.11.16 23:36:00 - [192]
 

Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:36:02
Originally by: Aresse

Buying @ ~2k p/u = teh sex.


Yup.

Had decided to jump the bandwagon at about 5-6k, in the morning, went to sleep, and prices had surged through the ceiling.

Oh well. Good for you though Razz.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.17 00:00:00 - [193]
 

Right now I am considering whether it is worth it to diversify into Chromium, right now I am accumulating Tech/Plat/Neo.

From all my reading and research I feel Chromium is the worst buy of the "four" minerals right now.

I will have about 5.5 bil into the mineral market when all said in done with:

65% Tech
20% Neo
15% Plat

I am actually thinking about raising it up to 6-7 and dumping some more into Neo as a safeguard to tech.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.17 00:43:00 - [194]
 

hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now? I see ppl just start coming back. Laughing

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.17 01:04:00 - [195]
 

If the changes in SiSi go live, I feel there is still quite a bit of room for growth.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.17 01:42:00 - [196]
 

Originally by: xylopia
hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?

Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left Laughing

Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society
Posted - 2009.11.17 03:57:00 - [197]
 

I'm shocked at the number of people who trade based on speculation that a terrible change on sisi will continue all the way until release.

I guess that proves the old adage correct; "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid."

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.17 04:57:00 - [198]
 

Originally by: Sophie Daigneau
I'm shocked at the number of people who trade based on speculation that a terrible change on sisi will continue all the way until release.

I guess that proves the old adage correct; "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid."


Don't you want moar and moar people to become uncontrollably irrational and impulsive to a point where even a barely week-old player holds up some of those yellow moon-goo and singing while all you have is bling-bling iskies? yeah that's right. enjoy the ride and expect unexpected. Who knows what awaits us just around corner? Twisted Evil

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.17 05:10:00 - [199]
 

Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 05:35:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia
hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?

Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left Laughing



Undoubtedly. Although you might need a little more than iskies if you look at market history. Twisted Evil

Tesal
Posted - 2009.11.17 06:12:00 - [200]
 

Edited by: Tesal on 18/11/2009 04:53:54
Originally by: xylopia
Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 05:35:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia
hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?

Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left Laughing



Undoubtedly. Although you might need a little more than iskies if you look at market history. Twisted Evil


Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.

Stop thinking price now, and think price with risk. What is the likely upside and what is the downside risk. I think at 10 to 15k they are about equal, double your money or see it cut in half.

Also, lack of alchemy indicates something is going on, why no alchemy on this, why switch to this now and leave a dyspro like bottleneck, it doesn't add up. People paying over 15k are not thinking right.

*edit
Revising my Tech estimate downward, 5-7k. Don't agree with other peoples analysis.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.17 07:37:00 - [201]
 

Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 08:18:33
Originally by: Tesal

Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.



It's been just like that more than gazillion times before. Still, ppl fall into that day after day after day. Unfortunately, what you shout out in this thread would not even make a dent at all. Plus, one needs to know when and how to exit but that's not something he/she can easily learn. People like you know better than that. Then why bother? Just enjoy the show and make iskies. Cool

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.17 17:50:00 - [202]
 

Edited by: Julian Koll on 17/11/2009 17:50:44
Just updated my spreadsheet with current buy order prices for raw materials, current sell orders for advanced ones and again calculated 150m/m per simple reaction and 300m/m per complex reaction for the pos fuel. ROI is as follows:

Tungsten Carbide 45.81%
Titanium Carbide 68.49%
Fernite Carbide 88.91%
Crystalline Carbonide 41.15%
Slyramic Fibers 53.89%
Fullerides -20.92%
Phenolic Composits 25.01%
Nanotransistors 27.57%
Hypersynaptic Fibers 16.91%
Ferrogel 15.02%
Fermionic Condensates 21.66%

The big question is, looking at those highly profitable reaction chains and the one operating at a loss, if either the raw materials involved or the advanced material produced are out of line.

The spreadsheet i use is this one: http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/reaction_blank.rar
Just type in the numbers you deem correct (buy, sell, whatever).
Edit: It might not be working on MS Office. Tried it this weekend at my friends PC and it did not convert the formulas.

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.17 18:58:00 - [203]
 

Edited by: Dahkare Raynor on 17/11/2009 19:03:58
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: xylopia
Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 05:35:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia
hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?

Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left Laughing



Undoubtedly. Although you might need a little more than iskies if you look at market history. Twisted Evil


Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.

Stop thinking price now, and think price with risk. What is the likely upside and what is the downside risk. I think at 10 to 15k they are about equal, double your money or see it cut in half.

Also, lack of alchemy indicates something is going on, why no alchemy on this, why switch to this now and leave a dyspro like bottleneck, it doesn't add up. People paying over 15k are not thinking right.


Isn't this essentially what any type of speculation/investment is? Judging risk vs money. At this point if CCP either:

A. Continues with the current changes.

B. Ninja changes without telling us - Introduce some unknown variable at patch day.

C. Changes it a month or two after dominion.

If any of those conditions arise, there will be money to be made at anyone who bought at a low enough price.(I agree, spending 15k on it is a bad risk/reward estimate in my opinion.) I believe the price has a very strong chance of shooting up to 20-30k if any of these above scenarios take place. Even if they introduce something that totally negates it at patch day, the speculation is going to shoot it up there by then regardless. The closer we get without any patch changes the higher it will rise, imho.

The scenario that worries me the most is Eve releasing a patch on SiSi or changing it on SiSi. In that case the best scenario is hope you are diversified and try to unload it before everyone else can. If this happens I am instant unloading for a estimated -500 or 600 mil profit. I can live with that.

Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.17 21:33:00 - [204]
 

Edited by: Tiberizzle on 17/11/2009 21:35:25
On this very same page I discussed the risk value. He clearly didn't read that bit. Judging from the repetitious, discontinuous, and generally emotional nature of his post I'm going to guess that he's just QQing because he didn't get in at 2K Laughing

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.17 22:16:00 - [205]
 

I didn't get in @ 2k either, and granted back then the risk was MUCH less, if any.

Now 10k we are at fairly reasonable risk reward ratio.

I think with a solid exit plan one can stand to make excellent money though.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.17 23:36:00 - [206]
 

Hm, anyone else notice Armor plates, especially Tungsten Carbide, just take a spike? What's that all about?

steveid
Viziam
Posted - 2009.11.18 01:37:00 - [207]
 

the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.18 01:42:00 - [208]
 

Originally by: steveid
the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil.

Sadly, in EVE, we lack the means to short-sell... and PLEX are a peculiar type of item (generated by spending cash, not gained in-game)... so even if that would be true and the PLEX market would be swamped by additional supply in the near future, there is nothing to be done about it now (which could generate any profits).

Tesal
Posted - 2009.11.18 03:20:00 - [209]
 

Edited by: Tesal on 18/11/2009 05:02:09
Edited by: Tesal on 18/11/2009 04:19:29
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: steveid
the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil.

Sadly, in EVE, we lack the means to short-sell... and PLEX are a peculiar type of item (generated by spending cash, not gained in-game)... so even if that would be true and the PLEX market would be swamped by additional supply in the near future, there is nothing to be done about it now (which could generate any profits).



Cheap motherships of doom = lots of plex.

*edit
readacted

Dahkare Raynor
Posted - 2009.11.18 07:10:00 - [210]
 

Anyone notice that the platinum market has shot up to 2400 Sell/2000 Buy.(like within 12 hours)

It had been hovering @ 1880 Sell/1800 Buy.

Thoughts?


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