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Amantus
Gallente
Malignant Enterprises
Posted - 2009.11.13 19:03:00 - [151]
 

Hi guys what's going on.

Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
Posted - 2009.11.13 19:04:00 - [152]
 

The weekend has started boys and girls, someone pushed Tech to 34k and Platinum Technites to 13k Wink

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.13 19:10:00 - [153]
 

Originally by: Amantus
Hi guys what's going on.


It's like they're letting just anyone in here these days Shocked

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 20:08:00 - [154]
 

Someone pushed Tech upwards a lot....although, given my own calculations, it won't stay that high for long. In the past 2 months, there has been a VERY LARGE drop in Technetium being put onto markets- hence the supply APPEARS now to be scarce. I estimate that there is about 40-80 million units sitting in hangers awaiting Dominion, if not significantly more...market manipulation on a large scale to be sure.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.13 20:25:00 - [155]
 

Originally by: Treji
I estimate that there is about 40-80 million units sitting in hangers awaiting Dominion

That's barely enough for 2-4 month's worth of finished T2 items Jita trades (post-Dominion)... let alone game-wide.

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 20:32:00 - [156]
 

Your assuming a couple things:

1. Numbers for Reqs, as indicated by SiSi, are similar to what will happen and;

2. CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem.

Point 2 seems to me to be the most relevant; CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!

Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.

I can only assume you have vast Technetium stocks, hence have a vested interest in talking it upwards :)

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:13:00 - [157]
 

Originally by: Treji
Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.


You expectations are not correct.

The supply of technetium is based on the total available known moons and pretty optimistic numbers of unknown moons.

The demand of technetium is based on medium term average amount of t2 ships and t2 items traded IN JITA ONLY.

So all in all, the supply situation is pretty optimistic with high numbers, the demand situation is pretty low. Also don't forget that there will be lots of pew pew after Dominion and probably lots of the high end moon mining pos will get shot at, but that is a different topic.


The only real unknown is how CCP will react and if they will pull the current numbers from Sisi to TQ. I don't see why they shouldn't do that for a while and change it after some time and if the situation gets dramatic.

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:18:00 - [158]
 

Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:20:36
It may be based on CURRENT or EXPECTED usage...thats my point, since Sisi numbers are never really useful for much before large expansions. Technetium numbers will be tweaked, especially given that CCP realise that Technetium may just replace Dysprosium etc as a problem. I'm sure they aren't that stupid, tbh Wink

There is still a vast quantity of technetium in hangers, which will flood onto markets after the expansion...

If there was going to be a genuine shortage and bottleneck, I'd expect to see Technetium up around 160k a unit about now....

Asasham
Caldari
Quintessential
Teldar Paper
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:19:00 - [159]
 

Originally by: Treji
Your assuming a couple things:

1. Numbers for Reqs, as indicated by SiSi, are similar to what will happen and;

2. CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem.

Point 2 seems to me to be the most relevant; CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!

Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.

I can only assume you have vast Technetium stocks, hence have a vested interest in talking it upwards :)


1. Did you even read this thread?
2. Have you seen how long it historically takes CCP to fix things?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:24:00 - [160]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 13/11/2009 21:25:29
Originally by: Treji
Your assuming CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem. CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!

Oh... let's mention just a few (in)famous examples... yes, there are many more, but those you should at least remember because they were either famous, pretty obvious and/or long-running:
* tractor beam BPO stealth announcement in patchnotes and subsequent change cancellations
* adding highend-heavy "mining with weapons" drone regions, then systematically removing cheap NPC supply of tritanium wondering why tritanium goes up like that and why lowsec mining sucks, only to somewhat fix that after "only" two years of problems by ramping up Veldspar availability in highsec belts
* heavily pre-nerfed salvage drop rates, supposed to make rigs somewhat affordable to most people, took them a good while (months) to balance drop rates somewhat, and again nearly two years to realize that, well, they really DO need to make them ship-size-dependent... and still drop rates are heavily skewed (most salvage drops are either "pretty good" or "nearly worthless")
* the T3 "ancient salvage" debacle - from way too little to way too much, the epic story of NIMs and nanoribbons (among other things)
* the complete failure to quickly notice, acknowledge and correct the fact alchemy was simply not working ; also, related to the same issue, the failure to promptly realize exploits were in place and generating rare stuff out of thin air when a lot of people were baffled by inconsistencies in prices related to those materials

Yeah, CCP might not be idiots, but they sure do have a nice track record of... well... doing that sort of stuff.

Originally by: Treji
If there was going to be a genuine shortage and bottleneck, I'd expect to see Technetium up around 160k a unit about now....

People are unsure on whether CCP will go ahead "as is" or not, and the actual demand still has nearly 3 weeks to go before it arrives.


Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:24:00 - [161]
 

Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:31:53
Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:27:16
Not only have I read this thread (which seems to be a method to increase the price of minerals to enable some players to cash in their stocks...), I have followed the mineral markets closely for 4 years and done my own analysis of usage.

All past expansions have had indications on Sisi during testing which have changed at release, sometimes drastically. CCP aren't going to just change the source of a high-end moon problem that the 0.0 changes are in part designed to overcome...try kidding others that they may do, so you can sell your stocks at high prices by all means...

On a side note, alchemy worked, it just wasn't that profitable, if at all. This was due, in part, to the reactant minerals getting pushed high by market forces and speculation, and in part kept high by alliances that sold the moon minerals onto the markets so they could continue to get high prices.

I'm pretty sure that CCP will not go ahead with numbers on BPO as they currently are. Its always funny how speculators won't put their isk where their mouth is...oh wait, they paid just 1400 a unit for Technetium....

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:34:00 - [162]
 

Originally by: Treji
CCP aren't going to just change the source of a high-end moon problem that the 0.0 changes are in part designed to overcome

Wasn't that more or less my point, that they NEED to change the SiSi data ASAP ? Laughing
Granted, my other point was that if they don't do it, the situation would look like <description>.

By the way, have you even tried to see what kind of changes WOULD be needed to make technetium (and/or platinum and/or chromium and/or neodymium) NOT the new bottleneck ?
You should probably get the Excel sheet and play with it to see how ridiculously radical all those changes would have to be.
Technetium is linked with neodymium in most things, and the only thing it's more prominent is in capacitors, so you'd need a pretty damn heavy (proportional) reduction in those, coupled with an increase in other neodymium-containing components to compensate, then that would have a cascade effect on other things so you'd also need to adjust not just T2 component amounts but also the construction requirements of other types of T2 components, then rejiggle the T2 components amounts and so on and so forth.

Meanwhile, even if they go ahead to how things are now, technetium might take until late spring to become a problem due to pre-existing stocks, so it's not like there's any urgency whatsoever in CCP's eyes to change anything... and, you know how the story with the frog in the slowly boiling water goes, don't you ?

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:40:00 - [163]
 

Of course, they could just play with the alchemy reactions...

They aren't likely to change Sisi data for BPO builds- this isn't likely to be a source of bugs/fixes etc, since its just changing numbers for build requirements. CCP will have run their own analysis and devised a solution, which we will see when Dominion becomes live.

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:45:00 - [164]
 

Originally by: Treji
On a side note, alchemy worked, it just wasn't that profitable, if at all.


I call that not working and a failure.

Alchemy was designed to cap the r64 prices. It never worked like that.

And then the pos exploit debacle...

LATEST after that event they should have seriously revisited alchemy because the whole alchemy numbers were based on were completely wrong numbers. Nothing like this happend.

But yeah, alchemy worked in a way .. you could set up a pos and use the reactions and you would actually get something! lol

Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:50:00 - [165]
 

Originally by: Akita T


By the way, have you even tried to see what kind of changes WOULD be needed to make technetium (and/or platinum and/or chromium and/or neodymium) NOT the new bottleneck ?
You should probably get the Excel sheet and play with it to see how ridiculously radical all those changes would have to be.



What if they just swapped out thulium for one of the existing reactions requiring dysprosium?

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:50:00 - [166]
 

Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:50:46
You'd only call that a failure if you were looking to make vast iskies from sales. Making the products to use in hard to reach locations, some with with variable entrances/exits, is another matter...

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.13 21:59:00 - [167]
 

Originally by: Treji
Of course, they could just play with the alchemy reactions...

They would need to ADD new alchemy reactions - technetium is not involved in any of the current ones.
Originally by: Gnulpie
Alchemy was designed to cap the r64 prices. It never worked like that.

Of course not... when the "linking" is done at 1/20 of valuable material's price + portion of 19 extra hours of fuel, all you do get is a ramping up of the "low" material price to a more-or-less breakeven level and negligible effect on the "high" material price. Even the current SiSi 1/5 + 4 hours extra numbers don't make much sense once you also consider the rest of the changes.
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau
What if they just swapped out thulium for one of the existing reactions requiring dysprosium?

If they go that route they might as well rework ALL reactions to make any subsequent changes much more viable (like, say, having each type of T2 component "eating up" vast quantities of only certain tiers of materials and negligible quantities of everything else - that way you can very finely balance prices later by tweaking only T2 component counts slightly).

Treji
Posted - 2009.11.13 22:03:00 - [168]
 

I can't see anything anywhere that says they aren't adding new reactions ;)

They have also been very quiet on system belts and upgrades to mining...expect changes

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.13 22:15:00 - [169]
 

Originally by: Treji
I can't see anything anywhere that says they aren't adding new reactions ;)

They'd make a big fuss about it if they would. They did make a big fuss about changing from 20 to 5 ratios in existing reactions. Well, not so big, but you get the idea, it was announced.
Quote:
They have also been very quiet on system belts and upgrades to mining...expect changes

Yeah, we've been expecting those for longer than two years... so, not really expecting much right now.
Their changes are to exploration content ore in sov-holding systems only for the time being.
If there would be any changes there, they certainly won't be in Dominion... spring/summer 2010, maybe. Now, no chance.

Seriously, they said they are dropping the AB change to AFs (which was already in) because they "wanted to also change rockets at the same time" (as if it's a big deal to do so, seriously) and "they can't do it because they don't have the time".
Let me repeat that : NO CHANCE.

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.14 13:14:00 - [170]
 

Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2009.11.14 14:30:00 - [171]
 

Originally by: Julian Koll
Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.


Yesterday the platinum technite went up pretty quickly after technetium price exploded.

Subsequently today the Fullerides market got pushed up heavily, Nanotransistors going slowly up also.

Sure there is lots and lots of hot isk in the market and speculation heating up the prices additonally. Still pretty interesting times :-)

Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
Posted - 2009.11.14 14:31:00 - [172]
 

Originally by: Akita T

* they could [change moon compsitions] silently between the last SiSi patch and the actual deployment (a bit of a nasty move, to use a mild word here... not completely out of character for CCP though - still, it WOULD be very fun to watch its effects, I'd have to agree)

[edit for clarity --A_K]



My money is still on this result, if the moon content data is easily changed. (Yes, I know, 'big if.' Trying hard not to be too cynical about the whole thing.)

They already have some track record of this though (i.e. the Veld respawn rate as mentioned a few posts up). I also have personal experience with this kind of dev-change happening in other environments/games; It's sadly common in this space.

--A_K

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.14 22:10:00 - [173]
 

Originally by: Alain Kinsella
My money is still on this result, if the moon content data is easily changed. (Yes, I know, 'big if.'

No, not just a big if... a HUGE if. An if so big as the galaxy.
You'd have more chances of us getting jovian as playable race and +7 implants on the market than to have CCP change the moon-mineral compositions in k-space moons, and very little chances of adding any minerals to w-space moons.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.14 23:22:00 - [174]
 

Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh Rolling Eyes

Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again Laughing

Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
Posted - 2009.11.15 00:16:00 - [175]
 

i've had my fun with platinum, leaking it back into the market aswell.
i made more money than with phased weapon painters after the missile rework.

it's gotten ridiculously easy to pick off tens of billions with the help of sisi and it really seems they don't give a rat's arse about veteran input. so, for me, the question has become what good sisi does, especially with the new concept, the 11th-hour-screw-ups.
don't get me wrong, i'd embrace any alteration to the upcoming moon goo stuff at this stage, considering how skewed it is towards a geographical north; heck, i'd still favor a complete abundance reshuffle (and one more week of sov grace period to get probin')

Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.15 03:27:00 - [176]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh Rolling Eyes

Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again Laughing


re: that order

Initial Vol 579,300
Vol Remaining 579,300

lulz

Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
Posted - 2009.11.15 05:07:00 - [177]
 

This thread is killing me. I was on shortly after the Technetium analysis was posted and I had a chance to buy large amounts at around 5k. But it was late for me and I was drunk, and I thought it would be folly to impulse buy off a public post. I put in a tiny buy order that was never filled.

Then I woke up and it was at 10k, and I almost started drinking again on the spot Laughing Missed. The. Boat.

zacuis
Great Big Research
Posted - 2009.11.15 13:18:00 - [178]
 

i have bought into this. but not massively. cos there is a little voice inside my head that keeps telling me to have faith the devs will change it all at the last minute. and t2 prices will plummet like they promised. there is another little voice tho that keeps pointing out there past history in such matters.

it might well be a good thing if they dont fix the moon goo problem with this patch. because after reading the system upgrades they would be removing the only financial reason to stay in 0.0. perhaps when they add the ability to add agents to outposts. they should have another crack at it.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.15 13:36:00 - [179]
 

Edited by: Turiel Demon on 15/11/2009 18:26:13
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh Rolling Eyes

Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again Laughing


re: that order

Initial Vol 579,300
Vol Remaining 579,300

lulz


Why must you mock my dreams of piles of isk Crying or Very sad


EDIT: Well, seems like my dreams are shattered... buy price has completely collapsed back to 6K

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.16 01:22:00 - [180]
 

There's plenty of stockpiles of every "low use" moon mineral out there... soon after prices go up enough, somebody in charge of those stockpiles will find a way to get them to the market and fill most of the high buy orders.
That's why I said heavy up/down fluctuations even before the patch are nothing unusual... just make sure you buy on the downswing and sell on the upswing Wink


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