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blankseplocked Dominion market analysis : sky's the limit on technetium (long term)
 
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Kanatta Jing
Posted - 2009.11.06 05:53:00 - [91]
 

I think Technetium is a Themed Mineral, due to it's complete absence in the Sansha Regions, making it not an Amarr specific mineral. I might conclude that the vast majority of Technetium moons could be in unreported regions that are clumped together due to NPC faction type.


Eisonar
Posted - 2009.11.06 08:52:00 - [92]
 

Originally by: Zarlis
Edited by: Zarlis on 06/11/2009 04:55:06
Looking at the data available on DOTLAN we can see that the only areas rich in these moons are Venal, Vale of the Silent, Pure Blind, Deklein, Geminate and Black Rise. If this is true for the area then we can expect that Branch, Tenal and Tribute to also contain an abundance of these moons depending on their sec status.

This will be very interesting on the political side if prices go through the roof and ccp does nothing about it.
We will be moving from a system where the valuable moons prom/dys were relatively evenly spread around to a system where 90% of the moongold is controlled by the Northern Coalition and particularly Razor if Branch and Tenal are like Venal.

Prepare to be price gouged like in the old t2 bpo days.



God I can't wait.

Protheroe
Posted - 2009.11.06 09:49:00 - [93]
 

I believe Dotlan is quite accurate for Dysprosium and Promethium moons. Aside from a few errors (there are entries for some systems where the material quantities seem to have been doubled), it matches the data I have from several different sources. Since these moons have been fought over for so long their locations have gradually become public knowledge, and they are much more likely to be scanned and reported. There are also far fewer of them, so they're easier to keep track of.

However I agree with Verite that other materials, including the R32s, are likely to be under-reported, with a few exceptions. Dotlan has very high coverage for some regions, probably due to the fact that complete scans have been released for them (complete or nearly complete surveys for empire space, Fountain, Venal, Deklein, Querious, Pure Blind and several regions in the south east have all been publicly available at various times).

Going by the regions with complete coverage, 29 of the 2,994 moons in Deklein (0.97%) are technetium, 74 out of 4,274 (1.73%) in Venal, 34 out of 3,735 (0.91%) in Pure Blind, and 17 out of 1,251 (1.36%) in Black Rise.

30 out of the 4,980 moons in Vale of the Silent (0.60%) and 13 out of 3,600 in Geminate (0.36%) are reported as technetium, but coverage for these regions is much lower (74% for Vale, just 6% for Geminate).

On the assumption that 1% of the total moons in good Guristas space will be technetium, the results for the regions with limited public information on actual moon distribution would be:

37 Branch
36 Geminate
25 Tenal
27 Tribute
50 Vale of the Silent

Adding these numbers to the counts on Dotlan for other regions gives a total of 361 technetium moons.

Obviously the actual numbers could be significantly different (I think the actual counts for Geminate and Vale in particular could be lower), but how would your calculation of post-Dominion technetium prices change based on this estimate?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.06 12:54:00 - [94]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 06/11/2009 13:17:36


In Dominion, at the SiSi build ratios used in the analysis, the ratio of Technetium:Dysprosium needed to build is slightly below 3.3:1. On Dotlan, the ratio reported for moon counts is roughly 1.7:1.

So even if Dotlan underreported technetium moons by a factor of almost 2 (unlikely, but possible) and there are actually 3.3 or more times more technetium moons compared to dysprosium moons, technetium becomes at least as valuabe as dysprosium will be worth in Dominion.
Of course, that's not really saying much, since dysprosium will certainly be worth jack-all in Dominion.

If Dotlan only underreported technetium moons by around 30% or so, technetium still remains the most valuable moon mineral, but not quite as grimly as portrayed on page 2 of this thread - analysis on this scenario was already made on the previous pages.
Long story short, if nothing changes on SiSi T2 component-wise, it's a battle royale between technetium (most likely to be a problem), chromium and neodymium (least likely to be a problem) - which one, or what combination of them becomes the problem depends on actual moon ratios between them (and the previous chosen reference point from before Dominion, namely dysprosium).

___

P.S. In the sheet posted below, if I only enter 361 technetium moons (and do not alter the coverage area, so make a hopelessly optimistic assumption that somehow only tech moons were not reported but everything else relevant was), then you go to a situation where neodymium is king at 100% usage (overall bottleneck slightly wider than before Dominion, but only slightly), chromium is second at 89-91% usage and technetium is the third at 87-89% usage.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.06 13:09:00 - [95]
 


http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3_Office2007.zip (Linkage)
I've added a few bells and whistles to this one.

First off, I have added an area where you can simply enter how many moons you think there are in the explored area, and how wide do you think the explored area is - scarcity now is displayed not as number, but as percentage of total EVE production to make understanding it all easier.

A new column (with white text on magenta bar background) was added to simply display what the total estimated EVE-wide consumption ratio of each individual moon mineral will be (out of total possible production).
That's probably the most important thing, because whichever hits 100% will be the most valuable (as a whole, not as unit price - unit price depends on that and several other factors), and the less below 100% it is, the (exponentially) lower the price will be.

Also, you can now manually alter the overall consumption of T2 components (haven't selected by ships only, but ships make up over 80% of total consumption, so, meh... I might select for ships only some time later, but not just now) and even the amounts of some advanced materials "eaten up" by some T2 components (you need to update a pivot table for that, and therefore you need to use the same Excel version that created the table - hence no Office'97 version).
This would allow you to get a quick (not entirely accurate, but close enough) look at how things change if you change build ratios.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.06 13:45:00 - [96]
 

Originally by: Akita T

P.S. In the sheet posted below, if I only enter 361 technetium moons (and do not alter the coverage area, so make a hopelessly optimistic assumption that somehow only tech moons were not reported but everything else relevant was), then you go to a situation where neodymium is king at 100% usage (overall bottleneck slightly wider than before Dominion, but only slightly), chromium is second at 89-91% usage and technetium is the third at 87-89% usage.



W/e the case might be, this whole Dominion thing turns out to be waaaaay better than I could ever possibly foresee. It almost makes my hair stand! C'mon CCP! make it rain baby! Very Happy

Meanwhile, I've learned quite a lot of eve. Many thanks for your work, Akita!

Agrilad
Posted - 2009.11.06 16:27:00 - [97]
 

Edited by: Agrilad on 06/11/2009 16:27:53
Maybe someone else posted this link. But akita was asking for lists of available moon minerals. Unfortunately these don't include null sec, as far as I saw.

Moon Map project:
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=942649

Yeah someone else can compile the numbers, I am just pointing out the data. :p

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.06 16:37:00 - [98]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 06/11/2009 16:37:46

Thanks for the info, but you're a bit late Wink
The "v2" spreadsheets were based on moon count numbers from evemaps.dotlan.net/region/moons which already uses the "moon map project" data on top of additional data.
We're currently up on the "v3" spreadsheets that contain that data plus additional tweakability to manually add moon counts and other stuff.

WarlockX
Amarr
Free Trade Corp
Posted - 2009.11.06 22:28:00 - [99]
 

Edited by: WarlockX on 06/11/2009 22:29:15
Interesting..

If chromium prices go up that means solerium prices are going up, and in turn things like hypersynaptic fibers. But it will take some time to filter down. Very interesting indeed.

edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.07 02:42:00 - [100]
 

Originally by: WarlockX
edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.

Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.08 15:19:00 - [101]
 

I see the market is reacting nicely, but it's still nowhere close to what the data indicates - can't blame anybody, the patch is still three weeks away and the data is not completely reliable, so caution is indeed advisable... but you don't make profits without taking any risks whatsoever Twisted Evil

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.08 17:34:00 - [102]
 

Originally by: Akita T
I see the market is reacting nicely, but it's still nowhere close to what the data indicates - can't blame anybody, the patch is still three weeks away and the data is not completely reliable, so caution is indeed advisable... but you don't make profits without taking any risks whatsoever Twisted Evil



Looks like there's about 12b isk worth of buy orders for technetium between current level and 5.5k/unit, so plenty of buffer there, and only 3 or 4b worth of sell orders before 10K/unit... seems to me like it's about to spike even more tbh.

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.08 18:14:00 - [103]
 

not that i understand too much about this, but given current prices there are margins on simple reactions between 8 and 40%... i think thatll make for some nice opportunities.

thanks for all the work akita, and i hope you litterally will earn tons of iskies with this thread.

Natasha Nikolaev
Posted - 2009.11.09 00:29:00 - [104]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: WarlockX
edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.

Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.



Interestingly, chromium is still relatively low. Seems it's taking some time for all of the stocks people have been holding onto due to chromium plummeting over the last few months to get sucked up.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.09 12:18:00 - [105]
 

Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: WarlockX
edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.

Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.



Interestingly, chromium is still relatively low. Seems it's taking some time for all of the stocks people have been holding onto due to chromium plummeting over the last few months to get sucked up.


And just like platinum technite we can expect hexite (Chromium + Platinum) to be a good candidate for going up

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.09 17:30:00 - [106]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
And just like platinum technite we can expect hexite (Chromium + Platinum) to be a good candidate for going up

I'd say pretty much everything that has technetium, neodymium, chromium and platinum in it has a very good chance to go up pretty heavily (the only exception being sylramic fibers, which already went up a lot, and even if they would still go up, they won't go up as much as the others, relatively speaking).

Daniel limb
Posted - 2009.11.09 23:27:00 - [107]
 

hmm so we have already seen a considerable drop in cadmium prices expect it to drop post patch?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.10 00:27:00 - [108]
 

Originally by: Daniel limb
hmm so we have already seen a considerable drop in cadmium prices expect it to drop post patch?

On one hand, you will no longer see it used all that much in alchemy (if at all - that's why its price is dropping right now, as the current alchemy reactions slowly come to a stop, if they restart or not past-Dominion remains to be seen, I'd say not likely), on the other hand you need MUCH more of it in armor plates.
Probably going to stay more or less the same, maybe even go up a little bit.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.10 15:12:00 - [109]
 

Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.10 15:45:00 - [110]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?

I'm not really that surprised tungsten carbide isn't going sky-high just yet since platinum hasn't spiked that hard, but what I am surprised is that fernite carbide is going up like mad ; if anything, it should be the other way around.
Oh well, I guess the fernite carbide market, being the lowest-volume one out of the four is the one reacting fastest to the stock shortages...

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.10 16:13:00 - [111]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 10/11/2009 16:36:06


Oh by the way... after you mentioned tungsten carbide and its weird performance, I was just double-checking everything about carbides in my sheet... lo and behold, it seems one of the fields was in the wrong place... tungsten carbide was registering as using chromium instead of platinum : instead of data being in cell K35 where it should have been, it was in cell L35.
So basically, chromium and platinum more or less trade rarity places with eachother.

So, the new rarity order is NOT the one that was mentioned until now, i.e.
technetium/neodymium/chromium/platinum/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
but instead is either
technetium/neodymium/platinum/chromium/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
or even
technetium/neodymium/platinum/dysprosium/chromium/promethium/mercury
(since chromium and dysprosium seem to be very close to each-other, rarity percentage-wise, in Dominion)

Not a huge difference, but a difference nevertheless.
___

I don't believe titanium carbide nor chromium would go down noticeably (actually, I believe they still have some extra increase to do from their current places, but you never know), therefore, it's just that all platinum-containing things should start to go up much harder. So, predictions :
* platinum up most in the near future
* platinum-containing simple reactions and also fullerides less than half the increase of platinum
* tungsten carbide going up quite nicely too
* some smaller increase in nanotransistors (they were already up because of technetium)
* NO CHANGE for sylramic fibers (since they use both chromium and platinum)
* hypersinaptic fibers uncertain change, possible (but not very likely) slight decrease

___

Here's the new corrected sheet (version "3b"):
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3b_Office2007.zip (Linkage)


Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.10 16:27:00 - [112]
 

Edited by: Julian Koll on 10/11/2009 16:27:50
What i dont get: If you take Buy Order Price of Platinum and Technetium, which the later only being used in a Platinum Technite reaction, an take the current Sell Orders of Pt. Technite, you get a gigantonormous 3.5% margin, not to speak of taking actual sell order prices of those two moon goos.

And yes, i hold a few hundred k of pt. technite Cool

edit: those 3.5% not considering pos fuel ofc, but thats for free as we all know

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.10 16:39:00 - [113]
 

Originally by: Julian Koll
What i dont get: [...]

Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.10 17:15:00 - [114]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 10/11/2009 16:36:06


Oh by the way... after you mentioned tungsten carbide and its weird performance, I was just double-checking everything about carbides in my sheet... lo and behold, it seems one of the fields was in the wrong place... tungsten carbide was registering as using chromium instead of platinum : instead of data being in cell K35 where it should have been, it was in cell L35.
So basically, chromium and platinum more or less trade rarity places with eachother.

So, the new rarity order is NOT the one that was mentioned until now, i.e.
technetium/neodymium/chromium/platinum/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
but instead is either
technetium/neodymium/platinum/chromium/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
or even
technetium/neodymium/platinum/dysprosium/chromium/promethium/mercury
(since chromium and dysprosium seem to be very close to each-other, rarity percentage-wise, in Dominion)

Not a huge difference, but a difference nevertheless.
___

I don't believe titanium carbide nor chromium would go down noticeably (actually, I believe they still have some extra increase to do from their current places, but you never know), therefore, it's just that all platinum-containing things should start to go up much harder. So, predictions :
* platinum up most in the near future
* platinum-containing simple reactions and also fullerides less than half the increase of platinum
* tungsten carbide going up quite nicely too
* some smaller increase in nanotransistors (they were already up because of technetium)
* NO CHANGE for sylramic fibers (since they use both chromium and platinum)
* hypersinaptic fibers uncertain change, possible (but not very likely) slight decrease

___

Here's the new corrected sheet (version "3b"):
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3b_Office2007.zip (Linkage)




Why do I do this to myself? I just invested in Chromium and then I make Akita kill it's chances Crying or Very sad

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.10 17:45:00 - [115]
 

Well, I wouldn't exactly call it "killing its chances" (since I still think it will also go up anyway), just, you know, noticeably less profit than you probably hoped for Neutral

Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.10 18:05:00 - [116]
 

Edited by: Turiel Demon on 10/11/2009 18:11:03
Meh, I bought it at 2100, it's not like I'm going to make a loss. Actually I've got almost enough stock to kill the current buy-orders down to 2500 or so, maybe I should try a little manipulation YARRRR!!

Looking at Technetium, there's just one major sell order, those 800K units at 10k/u (so, 8b worth) are a big cap on the price level right now, I wonder if that seller will shift his order up or if we'll have to break through it, and, in that case, how long that will take...

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2009.11.10 18:12:00 - [117]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.10 18:23:00 - [118]
 

Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)


As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.


Turiel Demon
Minmatar
Celtic industries
Posted - 2009.11.10 18:49:00 - [119]
 

Originally by: Julian Koll
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)


As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.




How does that calc go? I don't know about POS manufacture but I'm wondering about Hexite and Fullerides atm

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2009.11.10 19:00:00 - [120]
 

Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Julian Koll
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)


As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.




How does that calc go? I don't know about POS manufacture but I'm wondering about Hexite and Fullerides atm


Lets say you take 1b worth of A (buy order price) and 500m worth of B (buy order price) and you use half the capacity of a large pos to make C that you could buy from sellorders for 1550m... but that large POS costs you 150m each month to run... you get what i mean?

and as i put quite some work in my spreadsheat i am not sure if i am willing to share it... but its not that difficult to do


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