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Aurorae Andromedae
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:10:00 - [61]
 

So Akita T, do you think is a good change or bad one?

Aresse
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:13:00 - [62]
 

^ what she said.

Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit? That's great for me (three Tech moons atm), but even I think that's a bit crazy.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:19:00 - [63]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 04/11/2009 00:57:28

Originally by: Aresse
Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit?

If the situation is exactly the way you see it on the last screenshot, then yes, I honestly do think that.
It should go up to roughly the pre-Dominion price of one dysprosium PLUS one promethium, only slightly lower than that.
Last time I checked, before the first Dominion-related changes hit the public view, prices where peaking at around 160k and 140k...
so, yes, roughly 300k per technetium unit doesn't sound impossible at all, but actually very likely. scratch that...
the TOTAL value of the mineral remains the same, but there's more of it, so it's (160k ISK * 135 dyspro moons + 140k ISK * 179 promethium moons) / 230 technetium moons = a bit over 200k ISK, not 300k

Sure, it might take half a year or even one entire year for technetium to hit that price point, as more and more people start moving their forgotten stockpiles for sale, but still, eventually, that would be the equilibrium price.
Originally by: Aresse
That's great for me (three Tech moons atm)

I'll give you one month tops after the expansion hits in this format before you lose them - stockpile it all while you still can Laughing

Aresse
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:31:00 - [64]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 22:23:32

Originally by: Aresse
Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit?

If the situation is exactly the way you see it on the last screenshot, then yes, I honestly do think that.
It should go up to roughly the pre-Dominion price of one dysprosium PLUS one promethium, only slightly lower than that.
Last time I checked, before the first Dominion-related changes hit the public view, prices where peaking at around 160k and 140k... so, yes, roughly 300k per technetium unit doesn't sound impossible at all, but actually very likely.
Sure, it might take half a year or even one entire year for technetium to hit that price point, as more and more people start moving their forgotten stockpiles for sale, but still, eventually, that would be the equilibrium price.
Originally by: Aresse
That's great for me (three Tech moons atm)

I'll give you one month tops after the expansion hits in this format before you lose them - stockpile it all while you still can Laughing



Prolly will happen. I'm stockpiling like a mofo :)

If tech is going to skyrocket like this, one would have to assume that the complex/simple reactions that use it are going to skyrocket as well, amirite?

/me starts up the reactions again.

Wotcher Renyolds
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:32:00 - [65]
 

I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.

Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.

Aresse
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:39:00 - [66]
 

Originally by: Wotcher Renyolds
I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.

Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.


Waaaay ahead of you.

Wotcher Renyolds
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:42:00 - [67]
 

Originally by: Aresse
Originally by: Wotcher Renyolds
I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.

Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.


Waaaay ahead of you.


only by a minute I'd typed it up then decided to check if there was any cheap stuff left before hitting submit

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:55:00 - [68]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 22:57:58

Why bother with platinum technite (intermediate reactions are notoriously nasty to move) when fullerides are at an all-time-low and available in ample supply ? Twisted Evil
P.S. Anyway, like I already said, I fully expect//hope CCP will correct this, so buying up truckloads of technetium and technetium-related stuff will only do you good if you either buy it very, very cheaply or CCP doesn't do anything about it.

Wotcher Renyolds
Posted - 2009.11.03 22:58:00 - [69]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Why bother with platinum technite (intermediate reactions are notoriously nasty to move) when fullerides are at an all-time-low and available in ample supply ? Twisted Evil



because you can't run a nanotransistor chain without it and have you looked at the price of nanotransistors today

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 23:01:00 - [70]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 23:19:24


Well, nanotransistors were already high because of the neodymium, so that leaves fullerides, for traders.
But, yeah, if you're running a reaction chain and want extra supplies, then yeah, that's the only remaining cheap option Wink

P.S. Hey, what do you know, they might pull a fast one on us and start seeding w-space moons with moon minerals in such ratios as to compensate for the lack of some high-demand moon minerals in k-space...
...or simpler still, just add high-rarity moon minerals at random on low-value moons in k-space Laughing

Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.04 00:58:00 - [71]
 

Heh, nevermind under 3K, I haven't been able to find a region where there was any technetium selling at all other than Forge Laughing

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 01:11:00 - [72]
 

In case you guys missed it, I amended the estimated long-term pricetag of technetium... including the reasoning for it.
It's not around 300k, but around 200k if all things remain as now on SiSi.

Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
Posted - 2009.11.04 01:15:00 - [73]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 23:19:24
P.S. Hey, what do you know, they might pull a fast one on us and start seeding w-space moons with moon minerals in such ratios as to compensate for the lack of some high-demand moon minerals in k-space...

...or simpler still, just add high-rarity moon minerals at random on low-value moons in k-space Laughing



While we're on this subject, some other ideas for what they could do:

- Re-randomize the moon compositions, so that at least one of each 'high-grade' moon were available in each constellation (perhaps including low-sec borders to 0.0). This is a reasonable projection due to CCP's statements about their 'expected' 0.0 densities (i.e. about one corp per system) and the idea that everyone could at least have a chance at them.

- Have high-grade moons output less of the 'good stuff' over time (say 50% reduction in 6 months), requiring some form of rest period to replenish the output. Unlikely at this point, however. . .

- Possible integration of Dust matches affecting moon output. Also, there was discussion at FanFest about managing mini-empires on planets; They may allow work there to help leverage moon output in the system (i.e. cultivate a scientific community).

These ideas are, admittedly, a bit 'out there' but I've seen more ambitious projects take off well. I'm also used to last-minute world-shaking changes in other environments, so its going to be hard to surprise me.

--A_K

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 13:59:00 - [74]
 

They were talking about moongoo from comets at one point (which would be exploration-only content, no idea if that means everywhere or just in w-space), but that's only supposed to "maybe" come in some yet unnamed future expansion.

Doomed Predator
Caldari Provisions
Posted - 2009.11.04 19:49:00 - [75]
 

What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
Posted - 2009.11.04 20:47:00 - [76]
 

Originally by: Doomed Predator
What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills.


Technetium isn't even R64, its R32, which is what makes his estimation even more entertaining, especially if it turns out to be true.

Melleia
Vulcan Innovations
Posted - 2009.11.04 22:08:00 - [77]
 

Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Doomed Predator
What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills.


Technetium isn't even R64, its R32, which is what makes his estimation even more entertaining, especially if it turns out to be true.


I think that's his point. At present (current T2 usage), we're not using all the Tech moon supply, so why should people dedicate POSes to them all like Dysp and Prom.

Hoodat Bee
Posted - 2009.11.04 22:27:00 - [78]
 

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steh^h^h^h^h^echnetium

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 22:30:00 - [79]
 

Originally by: Doomed Predator
What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.

How many moons are actually being mined is only partially relevant - the most relevant thing is how many moons EXIST.
I am fairly sure that there are technetium moons that aren't being mined, or better said, weren't being mined in the very recent past.

Still, technetium sold for roughly 6k about a year ago, before dysprosium/promethium completely exploded upwards in price... and it was at that time the third most valuable moon mineral (far below dys/prom, sure, but still about as valuable as chromium/cadmium at the peak of alchemy-driven prices).
When alchemy started being used heavily, we saw technetium prices dropping and cadmium, then chromium prices rising, which almost matches the adjusted-for-alchemy scarcity data you can see in the pictures ; the reason why the match is not perfect COULD be that some people actually did alchemy at next to no gains... or it might be possible that there were slightly more technetium moons than assumed in that calculation. STILL, we know for sure that technetium kept being the fifth most valuable moon mineral even with alchemy in full swing, so there couldn't possibly been THAT many extra technetium moons in existence.

All of this further cements the conviction that the moon data was indeed accurate... or, better said, accurate enough for our purposes.
At an extreme, there could be AT MOST around 30% more technetium moons than I assumed there are, in which case the new situation in Dominion becomes a precarious balance between chromium, technetium and neodymium (which one is first and just by how much depending on how many moons really exist).
In that case, prices could swing anywhere between (very roughly) 50k average and 300k max for neodymium, 30k average and 200k max for technetium, 12k average and 80k max for chromium (obviously, if one is at the max, the rest would be at a negligible price-point, under 5k).

a51 duke1406
Original Sin.
PURPLE HELMETED WARRIORS
Posted - 2009.11.05 04:24:00 - [80]
 

If noting else the speculation on the market has gone crazy. 100% increase in price and the trade volume has gone way up. Not sure if its just your treads or if others are seeing the same thing. Or if its that the usual market traders have found something new. But its certainly going up in price.

Xylopia
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.11.05 05:46:00 - [81]
 

Edited by: xylopia on 05/11/2009 05:55:19
Originally by: a51 duke1406
If noting else the speculation on the market has gone crazy. 100% increase in price and the trade volume has gone way up. Not sure if its just your treads or if others are seeing the same thing. Or if its that the usual market traders have found something new. But its certainly going up in price.


When Nanotransistors reaches around +4k pu, it is a good sign that we are now at Dominion-level equilibrium. So, you ain't see nothing yet.

If Technetium is indeed a hot issue like Akita points out, well, i guess you'll see higher price tag on Nano. The recipe for Nano. is Neodymium, Mercury, Technetium, Platinum, Atmospheric Gas, and Evaporate Deposites, and 1 unit of Nano. contains 0.033 units of above, each material. So, you can calculate how high Nano. can shoot up.

Fyi, Baseprice of Nanotransistors is exactly 1/4 of Ferrogel.Very Happy

EvilCheez
That's Retarded
FIGHT CLUB INC
Posted - 2009.11.05 07:30:00 - [82]
 

Edited by: EvilCheez on 05/11/2009 08:04:36
For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.

Whether it is through wormholes, comets, planets, or alchemy I imagine they will wind up adding to the supply. The empire moons also have minerals, but I don't think empire moon mining would even be considered.


Full disclosure - I am heavily invested in the Technetium to Microprocessor line, but suspect in the end the phrase "tulip bulbs" will be popping up in a couple of weeks.

iP0D
Posted - 2009.11.05 08:21:00 - [83]
 

Originally by: EvilCheez
Edited by: EvilCheez on 05/11/2009 08:04:36
For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.

Whether it is through wormholes, comets, planets, or alchemy I imagine they will wind up adding to the supply. The empire moons also have minerals, but I don't think empire moon mining would even be considered.



As sad as this may sound, never trust CCP to be always on the ball or to be perfect. EVE is a pretty damn complex environment, and even in a perfect world where people behave as predicted just the amount of interactions possible creates enough wonderful instability.

But that on the side, remember the complete dropping of the ball with the moon exploit that went on for years, the failure of Alchemy as a toolset for readjustment, the enormous amount of time that went by with sovereignty attached to pos while everyone was banging their heads against the bottlenecks and the excess and the abuse for years, or even just the simple little thing of introducing level 4 agents in an expansion intended to get people out to 0.0 (as opposed to having them all go to empire instead). There's quite a list of such little "events" :P

It isn't really catastrophic, it just shows that CCP are an evolving factor in their own environment just like players, and shocking as it is CCP are human beings. EVE has a long history of a little hiccup lasting for a long time with extreme impact in spite of "everyone" seeing it coming or seeing the mistake.

I'm sure they will have had a wakeup call by now, which for my plans is kind of meh, but remember that it is still a few weeks till Dominion and anything can change in the mean time. Just never expect CCP to be perfect, or the expansion features & dynamics for that matter. Adjustment to a hiccup can take anything between a Sisi patch and 4 years.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.05 12:26:00 - [84]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 05/11/2009 14:54:58

Right now, the monthly Jita-traded volume required roughly 10.1 mil dysprosium (but only around 9.4 mil after we account for alchemy), 13.1 mil promethium (about 12.8 mil after alchemy), 10.4 mil technetium and roughly 26 mil chromium (and another 5.4 mil or so eaten by alchemy for around 39 mil total).

Now, we do know for sure that nearly all of the dysprosium moons were in constant production mode until recently, so that meant those minimum 9.4 mil dysprosium represented (proportionally speaking, compared to the other moon minerals) pretty much the full/maximum share of dysprosium that could possibly be mined, as made obvious by the pricetag.
We also know that 10.4 mil technetium and 39 mil chromium represented noticeably less than the maximum possible production, with chromium representing a slightly higher percentage of it.
Realistically speaking, the WORST case estimates put that at around 60% of maximum share of technetium production and around 65% maximum share of chromium production... while BEST case estimates are around 45% of maximum technetium production and around 50% of maximum chromium production.


After Dominion hits, the exact same volume and make-up of T2 goods traded will be requiring a bit under 6.2 mil dysprosium (it is doubtful cadmium alchemy will be profitable even with the new ratios), a bit under 7.6 mil promethium (same story here, doubt chromium would be worth using in alchemy after the patch), but over 20.3 mil technetium (with no possibility of alchemy for it) and a whopping 51.8 mil chromium (without any of it being reacted since it would not be worth it).

Obviously, this means the same goods will now eat less than 62% of max dysprosium production and around 58% of the max promethium production - obviously, none of these two will be a problem anymore.
Now, depending on which estimates (best/worst realistic case) we take into account, that could mean the same volume of T2 items would eat up anywhere from 86% to 117% of maximum technetium production, and between 66% and 87% of maximum chromium production.

In the best case for both, that would mean they're still more valuable (proportionally) compared to either dysprosium and promethium, and overall T2 prices would drop since the bottleneck would be indeed wider... but 1/0.86 = 1.16279etc
So... a bottleneck barely +16.3% wider ? That is seriously no big deal... and that's in the best case scenario.
All we'd see is a redistribution of inflated dysp/prom prices into inflated techn/chrom/neod prices, with the overall value of T2 ships not much lower than it is today.

In the worst case scenario, technetium would be the limiting factor, and the bottleneck would actually be THINNER than it was before ! Most of the value would concentrate into just technetium, and T2 ship costs would actually be going UP.




ALSO - REMEMBER : THERE IS NO TECHNETIUM ALCHEMY Twisted Evil


Originally by: EvilCheez
For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.

Actually, it sounds exactly like the kind of thing CCP would do.

For instance, you know what their main worry of theirs was when they adjusted the SiSi data ? To make sure the racial plates and carbides don't become the new bottleneck... seems technetium wasn't even on their radar.
Oh... and let's not forget the whole drone space disaster on the minerals market, then their recent veldspar-in-highsec adjustment that made ships sell now even below insurance scam value... then the horrible initial salvage drop ratios when rigs were first introduced... and the disgusting sleeper salvage drop ratios, both before and after their adjustments to NIM (from way too little to way too much, propelling nanoribbons to insane values).

Ambo
I've Got Nothing
Posted - 2009.11.05 16:03:00 - [85]
 

I agree.

I suspect that CCP has not done as complete as an analysis on this as you have Akita. From the dev blogs they were aware of the 'obvious' potential new bottlenecks but technitium may easily have been missed.

Still, can we just keep quiet about it till after prices go up and I sell of my stockpiles? Very Happy

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.05 22:46:00 - [86]
 

Originally by: Ambo
Still, can we just keep quiet about it till after prices go up and I sell of my stockpiles? Very Happy

You might not want to get rid of your stockpiles that easily either way - even if they try tone technetium down a lot, they'd have to make MAJOR changes, and it would still be about on par with dysp/prom/neod/chrom scarcity-wise.
So I fully expect technetium to jump past 10k per unit the very least.

For instance...
proposed ship T2 component changes :
capacitors -> *0.2
microprocessors -> *0.75
plates -> *0.5
reactors -> *2
sensors -> *0.75
thrusters -> 0.75
shields -> unchanged
+ proposed T2 component construction changes:
sylramic in plates (TQ 30, SiSi 10) : 6
fullerides in capacitors (default 15) : 3
fermionic cond. in reactors (default 1) : 2

In the WORST case scenario for technetium/cadmium availability, that would put technetium, dysprosium, promethium and neodymium at roughly the same usage ratios (nearly full usage of all four), chromium close behind (around 80%), mercury a little lower (at around 66%), with platinum and cadmium also relatively close (around 56%), vanadium at 37% (much higher than before, it was barely at around 26%) and thulium at 32% (pretty much where it was before).

In the BEST case scenario for technetium/cadmium availability, that would be a 3-way tie between dysprosium, promethium and neodymium for the top, technetium and mercury tied at around 66%, with platinum, cadmium and chromium tied around 56%.



Of course, they could also just give up and introduce "technetium replacement" alchemy Laughing
Still, given CCP's past track record, I think it's safe to say that there's a high chance in half a year I'll be making a "told you so" thread.
Twisted Evil

Doomed Predator
Caldari Provisions
Posted - 2009.11.05 22:54:00 - [87]
 

So,you go from saying technetium prices will be from 30k to 200k and now you say 10k. Make up your mind already Razz

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.05 23:22:00 - [88]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 05/11/2009 23:26:14
Originally by: Doomed Predator
So,you go from saying technetium prices will be from 30k to 200k and now you say 10k. Make up your mind already Razz

There is absolutely no contradiction between any of those numbers Twisted Evil

The 30k-to-200k prices are based on best/worst case technetium moon count estimates and CURRENT SiSi item build stats.
The 10k is in case the moon data I used was fairly accurate and they decide to modify the SiSi ratios into something similar to those I posted above.

Why I did that is in response to the guy above asking to "keep it down while he can unload his stocks" (the talks about the fact that CCP might actually do something about this and change ratios to "lighten" the technetium load), telling him that even in those extreme scenario changes (just look at the proposed numbers and say they're not extreme), technetium should still fetch that price eventually (roughly double of current market price).

Tiberizzle
Posted - 2009.11.06 04:30:00 - [89]
 

I think everyone should run out to Jita and buy a bunch of Technetium Right Now!

You don't want to get caught with your pants down after Dominion, do you? Very Happy

Zarlis
Gallente
Posted - 2009.11.06 04:52:00 - [90]
 

Edited by: Zarlis on 06/11/2009 04:55:06
Looking at the data available on DOTLAN we can see that the only areas rich in these moons are Venal, Vale of the Silent, Pure Blind, Deklein, Geminate and Black Rise. If this is true for the area then we can expect that Branch, Tenal and Tribute to also contain an abundance of these moons depending on their sec status.

This will be very interesting on the political side if prices go through the roof and ccp does nothing about it.
We will be moving from a system where the valuable moons prom/dys were relatively evenly spread around to a system where 90% of the moongold is controlled by the Northern Coalition and particularly Razor if Branch and Tenal are like Venal.

Prepare to be price gouged like in the old t2 bpo days.


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