I have a problem.
I own 5 plex and i haven't bought one in 3 weeks. I'm off the wagon.Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.
Look at the Red/Blue
Notice that at the start of May the amount of plex used was higher than the number created, thus putting sales prices in the hands of those with diminishing stockpiles. It's my belief that some of those people were extremely wealthy and went ahead with some very large scale market manipulation mid-May.
Speculators started jumping into the plex market and by June, we see that the plex creation rate (blue) was steadily growing beyond the plex usage rate (red) which flattened out at 800.
Let's look at the Yellow
Stockpiles built up a bit in Feb and then again in April. Notice that stockpiles have doubled in the last 2 months
, once speculators jumped in and plex became widely seen as a valuable trade commodity. There are 16,000 plex sitting around right now collecting dust. What do the owners intend to do with them?
16,000 plex sitting around. That's a lot of ISK.
What portion of these were bought with ISK by people wanting to make a good return on an investment? What portion of these were bought with real money by people wanting ISK cash flow? What portion of these were bought with the pure intention of using them for game time?
The answers will determine if prices will drop DRAMATICALLY into the 225-250m range or stay fairly flat at 300m. I think there's a "floor" at 225m because I think if plex fell to that level, then we'd see a big increase in usage of plex for game time and perhaps even an increase in accounts. In other words, i think that 225m-250m would be a "sweet spot" of affordability for many new plex users, thus dramatically increasing demand at those prices.
One thing is increasingly clear to me... and hence why I am off the wagon.
I own 5 plex. I may use them. I may sell them. I don't know, but i now see that prices are very unlikely to go above 315m any time soon... (if ever again). There is simply too much of a supply out there, and the longer people hold onto these 16,000 plex the more anxious they will be to leverage them.