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blankseplocked [psych] The Theory of the Failure Cascade: How Alliances Die
 
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Exie
Gallente
The Suicide Express
Twilight Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 15:40:00 - [31]
 

Edited by: Exie on 16/07/2009 15:51:04
Great read, loved it... in terms to tweak found a few things.

Page 1 Paragraph 4 "a failure cascade never been properly defined" cascade has never

Page 5 Paragraph 2 "alliances are run by a lose oligarchy of the CEOs" should be loose

Once again, loved the article.

My favorite quote - "Does this all sound like unscientific bull****? It is! This is a purely anecdotal theory that I've pulled out of my ass based purely on extensive observation, and you might wish to discredit it merely because I'm an obviously biased Goonswarm partisan." Mittens

Dante Algermain
Gallente
Silver Snake Enterprise
Against ALL Authorities
Posted - 2009.07.16 15:42:00 - [32]
 

Originally by: Galaor
Originally by: The Mittani
i deliberately avoid analogies to real-life combat as eve is much more analagous to a no-contact sport than war. this is why quoting sun tzu about eve is such a laughingstock: no one gets killed or risks death and everyone can escape negative situations in eve simply by logging off


I don't think you believe this for a minute. The people your skullduggery works best against are those that are emotionally involved with this game, and that care deeply about their internet spaceship assets. I don't think failure cascades are possible without this emotional involvement. Then again, it's pretty hard to build and maintain a strong 0.0-space holding alliance without it either...


It is the overriding failing in all successful people/pilots/workers. Their passion isboth their greatest asset and at the same time their greatest failing

The Mittani
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 15:44:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Galaor
Originally by: The Mittani
i deliberately avoid analogies to real-life combat as eve is much more analagous to a no-contact sport than war. this is why quoting sun tzu about eve is such a laughingstock: no one gets killed or risks death and everyone can escape negative situations in eve simply by logging off


I don't think you believe this for a minute. The people your skullduggery works best against are those that are emotionally involved with this game, and that care deeply about their internet spaceship assets. I don't think failure cascades are possible without this emotional involvement. Then again, it's pretty hard to build and maintain a strong 0.0-space holding alliance without it either...


emotional investment in sports is common, just as it is in games, you'll note that i did not deny this in what you quoted

the particular stressors which render combat and war so damaging (see this book) simply don't exist in games or sports, which is why i stay away from any ~sun tzu~ or battlefield analogies

Galaor
Amarr
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.07.16 15:50:00 - [34]
 

Edited by: Galaor on 16/07/2009 15:52:37
Originally by: The Mittani
emotional investment in sports is common, just as it is in games, you'll note that i did not deny this in what you quoted

the particular stressors which render combat and war so damaging (see this book) simply don't exist in games or sports, which is why i stay away from any ~sun tzu~ or battlefield analogies


I'll put it on my wishlist. You ought to read this in turn.

*Edit* and I think you'll like this if you haven't read it yet.

The Mittani
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 15:53:00 - [35]
 

i have that book actually, it's a great book. been a few years since i read it but i have fond memories~

Malur Fy'Lap
Caldari
Solar Nexus.
-Mostly Harmless-
Posted - 2009.07.16 16:05:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: Dante Algermain
Originally by: The Mittani
Originally by: Dante Algermain
I've just studied this text, and whilst i went into it with an open mind, i find your typical "yank" writing style or using too many big words to explain things, detracts from what could be a well written piece of journalism.

I fully expect to get flamed for this, but opinions are like ********s, everybody's got one.


it is unabashedly psych gobbledy****, i have a psych ba vOv


Ah, now i get it. You have a pointless degree and need to justify wasting those years of your life. Idea


Sounds like you got some issues with your life and poor judgement. Fact of the matter is that its a good article, and it is researched fairly well. You clearly have some sort of emotional attachment to something here (possibly lolbertarianism) and are going all emo.

Love it, keep up the good work.

James 315
Caldari
Caldari Provisions
Posted - 2009.07.16 16:22:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: The Mittani
http://www.tentonhammer.com/node/71300

I've been meaning to write something about this up for years now,


Silly alt, you did write something about this three years ago~~

How alliances die

- 315

Milhibethjida
Amarr
FoX-RaY
Posted - 2009.07.16 16:33:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: DrDevice
It might be an interesting experiment to 'arrange' for the key FCs' for a timezone to go 'afk' for a few weeks at the same time and see what happens :)


On that note: The 'key FC' for GoonSwarm is said to be dbrb, and him going afk for a few weeks would probably double, if not triple, the number of GoonSwarm members participating in random fleet ops, CTAs etc., I guess :P

Kesper North
Caldari
Gentlemen of Means
Gentlemen's Agreement
Posted - 2009.07.16 16:36:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: The Mittani
some nonrandian lolbertarians hold 'free will' to be their highest good, justifying both smoking pot and capitalism through it, the only problem is that 'free will' doesn't exist given how irrational and easily manipulated humans are, let's not even begin to touch on the number of inherent flaws in cognition which render free will a dangerous ideal


And some libertarians (what I call 'small-L' libertarians) just prefer smaller governments and a wider range of civil liberties. We're not all anarchist nutjobs.

Gaius Capua
Amarr
Cow Boys From HeII
The Volition Cult
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:08:00 - [40]
 

Now we're starting to see corps bouncing from one alliance to another as they fail in turn.

The failure cascades seem to come quicker now as players and corps that have been in alliance that has cascaded recognize the precursors and quit that much faster.

Mittens you'll have to think of a catchy syndrome name for that.

I'm waiting for the day that an alliance cascades merely at the mention of a possible invasion.

The Mittani
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:16:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: Gaius Capua
Now we're starting to see corps bouncing from one alliance to another as they fail in turn.

The failure cascades seem to come quicker now as players and corps that have been in alliance that has cascaded recognize the precursors and quit that much faster.

Mittens you'll have to think of a catchy syndrome name for that.

I'm waiting for the day that an alliance cascades merely at the mention of a possible invasion.


we did coin a phrase for corps who repeatedly join gbc alliances after a cascade, since some of them had been through like rise, frontal impact, skunkworks, and exe:

snowballers

weak, bloated alliances can easily cascade at the mention of hostile activity because they have no identity or allegiance to the alliance itself; you see this a lot in renter orgs like scorched earth and aggression


Rui Nosferatu
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:30:00 - [42]
 

Edited by: Rui Nosferatu on 16/07/2009 17:32:55
Its a cheesy business phrase but it also holds true for 0.0 alliances:-

'If you don't compete with yourselves then you don't have to worry about the competition'.

And don't succumb to MMO masochistic nerd rage about destroying an enemy. Login have fun, respect your enemies. Be dedicated and light-hearted. If you actually take COAD at face value then your a sucker Wink

A simple litmus test of the vitality of an 0.0 alliance is the collective willingness to form up a pvp gang to counter raiders. If this is hard to do then rot is setting in.

And on the other side of the coin players become more mellow from being part of an alliance that has failed and taken the experience to another alliance.




Htrag
Caldari
The Carebear Stare
Hydroponic Zone
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:39:00 - [43]
 

Interesting article with a good explanation of failure cascade. We see a similar phenomenon in low sec among corporations although on a much smaller scale. I'd like to think we (and our friends) are at least partially responsible for the recent failure cascade of the Gurlstas Associates, although that may simply be due to Gilgamesh being such a tool.

Khorian
Gallente
Versatech Co.
Raiden.
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:40:00 - [44]
 

Edited by: Khorian on 16/07/2009 17:42:33
German Alliances collapse even before they are formed, because for some reason they obviously can't accept to have just one guy in charge. Also, they prefer demcratic discussions over pvp.
Just thought i'd share this piece of wisdom. You're welcome.

Doppleganger
Minmatar
Band of Builders Inc.
Sodalitas XX
Posted - 2009.07.16 17:56:00 - [45]
 

Good read as always.

Personally after being part of FIX for 4 yrs and experiencing a few small cascades... I think its better if they happen quickly then having a real long term collapse.

William DeMeo
Gallente
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:03:00 - [46]
 

Originally by: The Mittani
Originally by: Berel Oham
i don't get why libertarians are supposed to be offended


modern psychology demonstrates that the classic summum bonums of typical lolbertarians are bs

objectivists/randians worship rationality, humans aren't only irrational but in many ways it is impossible for us to force ourselves into a rational mindest

lolbertarians of the nonrandian type often espouse the joys of a self-regulating 'free market' and behavioral economics blows bloody gaping holes in that

some nonrandian lolbertarians hold 'free will' to be their highest good, justifying both smoking pot and capitalism through it, the only problem is that 'free will' doesn't exist given how irrational and easily manipulated humans are, let's not even begin to touch on the number of inherent flaws in cognition which render free will a dangerous ideal


The profit motive, or maybe I should say "production for profit" (after all, cultural victory), is the only rational thing required for a free market to work. Are you, with your BA in psychology, going to tell me that this does not exist? As for people, I agree that most people are irrational, driven by emotions, and are generally unfit to be trusted to make any sensible decisions. Indeed, for evidence of this you need only look at liberals.

Galaor
Amarr
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:22:00 - [47]
 

Originally by: William DeMeo
The profit motive, or maybe I should say "production for profit" (after all, cultural victory), is the only rational thing required for a free market to work.


Proof or STFU.

Xiaodown
Caldari
Guiding Hand Social Club
Dystopia Alliance
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:25:00 - [48]
 


Great article, Mittens. Also, this is the most intellectual discussion I've ever seen on this board. Amazingly insightful replies.

/me goes to find some of these books to study up...

William DeMeo
Gallente
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:28:00 - [49]
 

Originally by: Galaor
Originally by: William DeMeo
The profit motive, or maybe I should say "production for profit" (after all, cultural victory), is the only rational thing required for a free market to work.


Proof or STFU.


Go to school.

Galaor
Amarr
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:36:00 - [50]
 

Originally by: William DeMeo
Originally by: Galaor
Originally by: William DeMeo
The profit motive, or maybe I should say "production for profit" (after all, cultural victory), is the only rational thing required for a free market to work.

Proof or STFU.

Go to school.


Is that where you learned that repeating what you've been told is an acceptable substitute for objective proof? I hope it was cheap.

Das Panzer
Minmatar
Rage and Terror
Against ALL Authorities
Posted - 2009.07.16 18:53:00 - [51]
 

This post has been cleared of inappropriate content.

Regards,
The EVE Online Moderation team

Machine Delta
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:10:00 - [52]
 

Originally by: Das Panzer
Too long, didnt read.
Same rubbish as always Mittens, just more words.
Only thing interesting about this is how many more angles you can squeeze from Bob disband.


A perfect display of ignorance

Harkani
Amarr
Igneus Auctorita
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:12:00 - [53]
 

Originally by: Das Panzer
Too long, didnt read.
Same rubbish as always Mittens, just more words.
Only thing interesting about this is how many more angles you can squeeze from Bob disband.


You know its the "same rubbish" as always without even reading it brah?

Kaaii
Caldari
Kaaii-Net Research Labs
KAAII-NET
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:18:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Machine Delta
Originally by: Das Panzer
Too long, didnt read.
Same rubbish as always Mittens, just more words.
Only thing interesting about this is how many more angles you can squeeze from Bob disband.


A perfect display of ignorance


Don't be so hard on yourself, u mad?

oh and too mittens, not worth the read...

Machine Delta
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:20:00 - [55]
 

Originally by: Kaaii
Originally by: Machine Delta
Originally by: Das Panzer
Too long, didnt read.
Same rubbish as always Mittens, just more words.
Only thing interesting about this is how many more angles you can squeeze from Bob disband.


A perfect display of ignorance


Don't be so hard on yourself, u mad?

oh and too mittens, not worth the read...



I actually feel a little sorry for you and Das Panzer. Just a little bit. Must be sad being so bitter.

Kaaii
Caldari
Kaaii-Net Research Labs
KAAII-NET
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:23:00 - [56]
 


Sooo predictable...its just too easy ...Wink






Grendell
Amarr
Technologies Unlimited
Superior Eve Engineering
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:43:00 - [57]
 

I don't typically follow COAD much, for obvious reasons.
But I am very happy I took the time to read that write up, it was a very interesting read. Thanks for taking the time to write itWink

SFX Bladerunner
Minmatar
Aperture Science inc.
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:51:00 - [58]
 

Originally by: The Mittani
oh also this hasn't been edited properly so expect the odd missing word, once people warn me of the errors i'll have it tweaked~


page 1, beginning of 4th paragraph:
"Despite the popularity of the term, a failure cascade never been properly defined."


Other than that I didn't notice any big grammatical errors.

Congratulations on yet another fine read, I give it a 9/10.Smile

The Mittani
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:52:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: Khorian
Edited by: Khorian on 16/07/2009 17:42:33
German Alliances collapse even before they are formed, because for some reason they obviously can't accept to have just one guy in charge. Also, they prefer demcratic discussions over pvp.
Just thought i'd share this piece of wisdom. You're welcome.


democracy never works in 0.0, ever

alliances burdened with 'councils' explode much faster than those without

VCBee 516
Amarr
The Greater Moon
Posted - 2009.07.16 19:55:00 - [60]
 

Originally by: Kaaii
Originally by: Machine Delta
Originally by: Das Panzer
Too long, didnt read.
Same rubbish as always Mittens, just more words.
Only thing interesting about this is how many more angles you can squeeze from Bob disband.


A perfect display of ignorance


Don't be so hard on yourself, u mad?

oh and too mittens, not worth the read...



So if you didn't read it why are you here? Just trolling because you dislike certain people so much?

At least other posters here are contributing something.


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