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CCP Fallout

Posted - 2009.06.08 17:38:00 - [1]
 

Ah, endless days. Yes, the midnight sun almost upon us in Reykjavík, which means it's much, much easier to trick the devs into working longer hours! And who better to tell us about the fruits of this lightly labor than our very own CCP Chronotis, who gives us a nice scoop of Apocrypha 1.3 ice cream in his newest blog.

Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society
Posted - 2009.06.08 17:43:00 - [2]
 

Good stuff, I can't wait.

Phantom Slave
Universal Pest Exterminators
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:17:00 - [3]
 

Sweet, with the patch we should see some nice decreases in t3 production, allowing more people to play with these ships and allow us to see their true potential.

Destination SkillQueue
Are We There Yet
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:18:00 - [4]
 

My nipples got erect after reading that. Looking forward to it Cool

Doomed Predator
Caldari Provisions
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:25:00 - [5]
 

Lets hope this brings T3 closer to the 200 mill mark the devs wanted it to be.

Treelox
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:34:00 - [6]
 

do we have a rough ETA on this patches deployment yet?

EliteSlave
Minmatar
Macabre Votum
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:45:00 - [7]
 

So what about t2 production?

what about Moon mining shortages?


Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2009.06.08 18:59:00 - [8]
 

Interesting solution - would have preferred one that made more use of c84 or one that made more use of Methanofullerine (I think - one of the ones in that area anyways) but *shrug* this is better than nothing.

The drop/recovery rate on the datacores better be seriously increased - as it was it matched the drop rate on the malfunctioning - making wrecked stuff (except wrecked hulls) totally worthless.

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:02:00 - [9]
 

Mmmm ice cream. Vanilla.

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:26:00 - [10]
 

Hmm, yes - increasing drop rates is one solution to fight some shortage and drop prices.

But if drop rates increase and so the supply increase a lot, how are you going to keep the prices up?

If you don't keep the prices high then going into the wormholes will be unprofitable and people will stop doing so. Or do you just hope that demand will increase also somehow and balance out the much higher supply rates and so the prices will be stable?

But is 1.3 all only about wormhole loot/salvage drop changes and some (minor) t3 production changes? Or can we expect also some other stuff?

Phantom Slave
Universal Pest Exterminators
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:32:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
Hmm, yes - increasing drop rates is one solution to fight some shortage and drop prices.

But if drop rates increase and so the supply increase a lot, how are you going to keep the prices up?

If you don't keep the prices high then going into the wormholes will be unprofitable and people will stop doing so. Or do you just hope that demand will increase also somehow and balance out the much higher supply rates and so the prices will be stable?

But is 1.3 all only about wormhole loot/salvage drop changes and some (minor) t3 production changes? Or can we expect also some other stuff?


Honestly I've never understood the "increasing drop rate makes us poor" ideology. If they are dropping more often, you're getting more in the same amount of time, therefore you're making the same isk/hour if the prices drop at the same rate that item drop increases.

Morel Nova
Genos Occidere
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:39:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
Or do you just hope that demand will increase also somehow and balance out the much higher supply rates and so the prices will be stable?


what do you mean "somehow"? everyone and their sister wants a t3 toy, but the current price was just magnitudes too high for real use. increased drop rates, bigger market, more profit baby.

Marius Deterium
Crush Kill Destroy
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:50:00 - [13]
 

Agreed,

While I can afford T3 ship, their high cost just doesn't make them practical to use. Lowering cost will entice new customers to buy.

Karma
Vortex Incorporated
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:01:00 - [14]
 

Edited by: Karma on 08/06/2009 20:04:54
spend a few hours to be able to make 1 hull and sell it for 500m.
spend the same amount of time to be able to make 5 hulls* and sell each for 100m**.

the end result (isk/hour) is exactly the same.

and yeah, everyone and their mother wants a T3 cruiser... but their usefulness is just not on par with their current price.

* your mileage may wary.
** this mileage will wary too.

Luna Nilaya
Blood Works Inc.
Circle-Of-Two
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:10:00 - [15]
 

Don't care really what you do with T3 production.
I won't fly them as long as I lose SP when losing one.

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:19:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Karma
spend a few hours to be able to make 1 hull and sell it for 500m.
spend the same amount of time to be able to make 5 hulls* and sell each for 100m**.

the end result (isk/hour) is exactly the same.

* your mileage may wary.
** this mileage will wary too.


Or spend the same amount of time to be able to make 5 hulls and sell each for 10m?

That was one of my question.

If the devs have some market-model to work out their numbers or if they just hope that somehow the market will balance it out all on its own (which didn't work that well in the first place btw).

Gummi
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:24:00 - [17]
 


steave435
Caldari
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:38:00 - [18]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Karma
spend a few hours to be able to make 1 hull and sell it for 500m.
spend the same amount of time to be able to make 5 hulls* and sell each for 100m**.

the end result (isk/hour) is exactly the same.

* your mileage may wary.
** this mileage will wary too.


Or spend the same amount of time to be able to make 5 hulls and sell each for 10m?

That was one of my question.

If the devs have some market-model to work out their numbers or if they just hope that somehow the market will balance it out all on its own (which didn't work that well in the first place btw).

If that happends, then some people will stop going to WH space until the price rise again, but if the drop rate rose by 5x, then it will not rise much above 20% of the old price since at that point it is just as profitable as it is now, and if it's just as profitable as it is now then the same amount of people will be gathering the materials, but that same amount of people produce 5x the amount of stuff.

Savage Roar
O X I D E
Posted - 2009.06.08 20:54:00 - [19]
 

The question no-one seems to be addressing is what this patch will do to t3 module prices... it's just yada yada about the ships, but no-one's talking about the t3 weaponry? Will this patch make it cheaper too?

Mes Ren
No Trademark
Posted - 2009.06.08 21:27:00 - [20]
 

Edited by: Mes Ren on 08/06/2009 22:03:32
I did the number cruching -- here is where we will be after the changes.

First, the assumptions:
- Neurovisual Input Matrix drops in price from 6-7mil to 2mil or less.
- Carbon-86 drops in price from 3.2mil to 2.3mil or less.
- Scandium Metallofullerene increases in price from 34,900 to 100,000isk/unit.
- Subsystem Datacore go from 10mil/unit on avg (and 25mil/unit on avg for offensive) to 5mil/unit on avg. across the board.
- Reverse Engineer will increase the number of runs per bpc from 3 to 9.

Current costs for T3 (assuming 75% success rate):
- Hull - approx. 200 - 250mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 30mil/unit with Wrecked Hulls) - Total Cost: 230mil - 280mil
- Defensive Subsystem - approx. 25 - 50mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 19mil/unit) - Total Cost: 44mil - 69mil
- Electronic Subsystem - approx. 42 - 51mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 19mil/unit) - Total Cost: 61mil - 70mil
- Engineering Subsystem - approx. 42 - 51mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 19mil/unit) - Total Cost: 61mil - 70mil
- Offensive Subsytem - approx. 53 - 86mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 46mil/unit) - Total Cost: 99mil - 132mil
- Propulsion Subsystem - approx. 42 - 51mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 19mil/unit) - Total Cost: 61mil - 70mil

* cost spread is largely the difference between reacting the polymers yourself and buying them off the market.

Please take into account that for every given subsystem group, there is usually 1 or 2 highly desirable subsystems. Since you can not pick which subsystem you will get (completely random within a group), there is additional costs to produce the desired subsystem. This is figured by multiply the Reverse Engineer Cost/unit by 4.

Proposed System costs for T3 (assuming 75% success rate):
- Hull - approx. 95 - 127mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 10mil/unit with Wrecked Hulls) - Total Cost: 105mil - 137mil
- Defensive Subsystem - approx. 17 - 34mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 2mil/unit) - Total Cost: 19mil - 36mil
- Electronic Subsystem - approx. 18 - 24mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 2mil/unit) - Total Cost: 20mil - 26mil
- Engineering Subsystem - approx. 18 - 24mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 2mil/unit) - Total Cost: 20mil - 26mil
- Offensive Subsytem - approx. 28 - 51mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 2mil/unit) - Total Cost: 30mil - 52mil
- Propulsion Subsystem - approx. 18 - 24mil/unit (Reverse Engineering Cost approx. 2mil/unit) - Total Cost: 20mil - 26mil

If the current markups held true (and current market prices continue to hold steady on materials) you would see the following T3 Retail prices:

Hulls: 350mil - 450mil
Defensive Subsystems: 66mil - 106mil
Electronic Subsystems: 56mil - 96mil
Engineering Subsystems: 56mil - 96mil
Offensive Subsystems: 82mil - 126mil
Propulsion Subsystems: 56mil - 96mil

So a total T3 Ship would cost between 666mil - 990mil. As competition between producers increases, material costs come down, these retail prices could come down 10% - 25%.

Couple of other notes: The prospective new costs could change dramatically up or down depending on drop rates adjustments. The 2 biggest material costs for T3 (not including reverse engineering costs for subsystems) are Carbon-86 and Neurovisual Input Matrix. Third in line is Melted Nanoribbons (though there is a big gate between this item and the previous 2). Increasing the drop rate of this item (causing it's cost to come down) would also have a decent effect on new pricing. They didn't say in the blog that they are increasing all the ancient salvage drops, just adjusting them to get rid of bottlenecks, so I'm assuming we'll see and increase drop in Neurovisual Input Matrix and probably Melted Nanoribbons.

Karma
Vortex Incorporated
Posted - 2009.06.08 21:32:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: Savage Roar
The question no-one seems to be addressing is what this patch will do to t3 module prices... it's just yada yada about the ships, but no-one's talking about the t3 weaponry? Will this patch make it cheaper too?
I assume you mean the subsystems, yes?
since there aren't any T3 modules as such...

as you can see in this image, updating the droprates of salvage, fullerites, datacores/decryptors, etc will increase the amount of hulls AND subsystems you can create per expedition.
just a matter of what blueprints you get, i suppose.

I'm guessing they're flinging around the term "T3 ship" as in, a whole ship, complete with hull and subsystems.

Ankhesentapemkah
Gallente
Posted - 2009.06.08 22:08:00 - [22]
 

Epic mission arcs, any info?

Shadowsword
The Rough Riders
Ares Protectiva
Posted - 2009.06.08 22:27:00 - [23]
 

Those are some nice steps on the right direction. Time will tell if it's enough or not...

But one thing bother me: You still can't choose which subsystem you want to reverse engineer.

That mean the usefull subsystems will remain expensive due to rarity, and sucky subsystems will be REed at a loss due to supply far exceeding demand. This is a big design mistake here...

Kinomoto Sakura
FW Scuad
E C L I P S E
Posted - 2009.06.08 22:47:00 - [24]
 

Cheaper Legions??? yes please Laughing

Alvara
Kuiper Belt Industries
Empire Research
Posted - 2009.06.08 23:06:00 - [25]
 

I finally buy a strategic cruiser last week, because prices looked to have stabilized, and NOW you announce supply changes.

Maria Kalista
Amarr
Knights of Kador
Posted - 2009.06.09 02:05:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Ankhesentapemkah
Epic mission arcs, any info?


Yeah, or: what happened to the (new) missions, you (CCP) should be able by now, to add on the fly?

Gamer4liff
Caldari
Metalworks
Majesta Empire
Posted - 2009.06.09 02:09:00 - [27]
 

Edited by: Gamer4liff on 09/06/2009 02:09:37
Originally by: EliteSlave
So what about t2 production?

what about Moon mining shortages?



This X1000

Ben Derindar
Dirty Deeds Corp.
Posted - 2009.06.09 02:29:00 - [28]
 

A sound plan, as long as overall isk/hour isn't affected too badly.

Time will tell.

/Ben

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2009.06.09 05:32:00 - [29]
 

Originally by: Gamer4liff
Edited by: Gamer4liff on 09/06/2009 02:09:37
Originally by: EliteSlave
So what about t2 production?

what about Moon mining shortages?



This X1000

Seems to me it's working as intended...

Louis deGuerre
Gallente
Malevolence.
Posted - 2009.06.09 07:42:00 - [30]
 

Not being a billionaire these changes do not affect me at all.
Acoording to your latest Quarterly report you've just catered to 10 % of your player base.

Where is the love for the common man ? FW ? Epic arcs ? Extra snowballs ? Crying or Very sad


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