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blankseplocked Thoughts on the potential Zydrine market collapse
 
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adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
Posted - 2009.05.29 17:40:00 - [31]
 

it's going to spike hard in a while, just wait for itTwisted Evil (might go even lower first though)


also, another thing to keep in mind, a large part of drone regions are under heavy fighting, a LOT of zydrine comes from there, the residents could be selling of lots and lots of drone stuff(aka, zydrine heavy) to finance replacements etc.

Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2009.06.05 18:24:00 - [32]
 

Don't see what the issue is.

Unintended consequence of wormhole space (or intended? you be the judge).

There are a lot of pilots who never had access to ABC/Mercoxit before that now have access to it. So no surprises there. Greater supply = dropping prices.

Krathos Morpheus
Legion Infernal
Posted - 2009.06.05 19:25:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Letrange
Don't see what the issue is.

Unintended consequence of wormhole space (or intended? you be the judge).

There are a lot of pilots who never had access to ABC/Mercoxit before that now have access to it. So no surprises there. Greater supply = dropping prices.
I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?

Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.06.05 19:45:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Krathos Morpheus
Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?


Yes.

Arrador
Posted - 2009.06.05 20:57:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: jullll
zydrine will go up one day you guys think?

If CCP doesn't make any sweeping changes to missions/mining/manufacture, then Zydrine can only realistically go back up if Megacyte starts going down.



Err - I dunno. Megacyte prices are going down also - at a faster rate then Zydrine - at least in my region.

Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2009.06.08 19:12:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: Krathos Morpheus
I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?


isk/m3 of veldspar ~ 120-130 isk/m3
isk/m3 of Arkonor ~ 500 isk/m3
isk/m3 of Bistot ~ 450? isk/m3
isk/m3 of Crokite ~ 350? isk/m3

It's in that range anyways, zydrine would have to crash below 800 isk/unit AND Megacyte would need to go below 2000 isk/unit before ABC's would be un-interesting.

Here's the reality - as a manufacturer who occasionally mines I used to buy all minerals to refil my mineral bunkers for my planned production. Since Apocrypha, even with the sparsity of grav sites, I have become a net supplier of Megacyte and Zydrine while still buying all the 5 other lows. Note: I used to BUY all my Megacyte and Zydrine and a percentage of the lows, I now SELL Megacyte and Zydrine and buy a percentage of the lows.

Imagine that a lot of high sec carebears start doing the same, now picture the effect on the market...

EnslaverOfMinmatar
Amarr
Posted - 2009.06.08 21:56:00 - [37]
 

Since this thread is about Zydrine, some people are selling Zydrine to me @ 0.01 isk each.

Verite Rendition
Caldari
F.R.E.E. Explorer
EVE Animal Control
Posted - 2009.06.09 12:06:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Krathos Morpheus
I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?


isk/m3 of veldspar ~ 120-130 isk/m3
isk/m3 of Arkonor ~ 500 isk/m3
isk/m3 of Bistot ~ 450? isk/m3
isk/m3 of Crokite ~ 350? isk/m3

It's in that range anyways, zydrine would have to crash below 800 isk/unit AND Megacyte would need to go below 2000 isk/unit before ABC's would be un-interesting.

Here's the reality - as a manufacturer who occasionally mines I used to buy all minerals to refil my mineral bunkers for my planned production. Since Apocrypha, even with the sparsity of grav sites, I have become a net supplier of Megacyte and Zydrine while still buying all the 5 other lows. Note: I used to BUY all my Megacyte and Zydrine and a percentage of the lows, I now SELL Megacyte and Zydrine and buy a percentage of the lows.

Imagine that a lot of high sec carebears start doing the same, now picture the effect on the market...
Your numbers are quite a bit off.

If you figure Trit/Nocx/Zyd/Mega is at 4.15/65/1500/3950 respectively, you get:

Veld: 125isk/m3
Crokite: 254isk/m3
Bistot: 369isk/m3
Arkonor: 489isk/m3

Crokite, the staple ore of good 0.0, barely is worth 2x that of high-sec Veldspar. Risk/reward is totally out of whack. Never mind the fact that you'd have to be a fool to mine rather than run L4s right now.

Anyhow, your outcome predictions aren't too far off (I don't think they'd need to drop as much - trit would likely rise to maintain the insurance price floor, bridging the gap).

Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2009.06.09 16:47:00 - [39]
 

I was using slightly higher zydrine and mega values as I could get higher values putting up sell orders and being out of Jita. Also I may have been basing myself off of what I remember from my prices 2 weeks ago. The point I was trying to make is that even at your pesimistic prices, all 3 are still better than Veldspar.

Honestly the risks in wormhole space are worth is since you're not dealing with ****d and pillaged high sec ores (Imagine there are some individual roids that some times take two sessions in some of these wh grav belts). So you've got a serious cycle advantage on top even for the same ore.

Most interruptions are actually not as bad as all that and detected in sufficient time to povide some nice PvP breaks in the routines. Just about any miner I've got has found WH space better than high sec in almost every way. There are only certain situations where you are totally hosed. Mind you it does away with AFK mining, you do need to pay attention.


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