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DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 19:49:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 26/06/2011 15:34:14
Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 26/06/2011 05:38:56
Thanks to Tobiaz's post and hard work, we are now able to make an estimate on how much accounts are being inactive, and to estimate how much financial losss CCP is suffering from this fiasco.
(tally post: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1536495&page=1)

Although US dollars per month is a practical unit for gauging projected income/losses, it looks boring. So why not change the units into something more interesting... such as monocles sold per day?

Before we go further, let's get the units straight.
I will restate the price conversion rate for monocles to US dollars:

1 PLEX = 3500 AUR
1 Monocle = 12,000 AUR = 3.43 PLEX = 12000/3500*17.5 = $60.

Therefore, 1 Monocle sold / day = $1800 / month of income.
(I know, one month is always 30 days in EVE.)

For simplicity, I will assume that the subscription fee for every account is paid in US dollars. I will, however, note the difference between accounts paying a monthly subscription fee and accounts paying with PLEX/time codes, as a PLEX is worth $17.5/month whereas the regular subscription fee is $15/month. (Also, the negative reaction from the gaming community is bound to reduce the number of new players coming to this game, but this effect is out of the scope of this post so will not be discussed here.)

Then, to simplify the conversion rate,

1 Paying account = $15/month = $.5/day = 0.0833.. monocle / day.
1 PLEX/time code account = $17.5/month = $.583../day = .0972.. monocle / day.

Then, the rest is simple; just count up the number of paying accounts and PLEX accounts, then multiply by the conversion rate for monocle sold/day. Accounts not specified otherwise will be counted as a paying account to give a more conservative estimate.

Let's begin, shall we?

As per post 2176 of Tobiaz's thread...

Monthly Subscription Accounts: 4145
(Not counting suspicious statistical outliers)
Yearly Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 13
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 116

Estimated Financial Loss: $64,000/month, $770,000/year, or 35.6 Monocles / Day

If you are reading this post and thinking your replying to Tobiaz's thread, it helps a lot if you specify your method of payment, namely monthly / yearly / PLEX & GTC.


This post will be updated periodically.


DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 20:03:00 - [2]
 

Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 26/06/2011 15:33:16
Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 26/06/2011 05:37:42
Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 26/06/2011 00:04:47
Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 25/06/2011 22:55:19
Edited by: DeftCrow Redriver on 25/06/2011 21:57:58
Update Log:

As per post 1601, 1958 UTC:
Total financial loss = $49,500 / month
= 27.5 monocles / day


Post 1682, 2150 UTC:
Monthly Subscription Accounts: 3307
Yearly Subscription Accounts: 3
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Confirmed): 94

Financial Loss: $51,300/month, or 28.5 Monocles / Day


Post 1734, 2250 UTC:
Monthly Subscription Accounts: 3399
Yearly Subscription Accounts: 10
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Confirmed): 95

Financial Loss: $52,600/month, or 29.2 Monocles / Day


Post 1778, 0020 UTC:
Monthly Subscription Accounts: 3489
Yearly Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 10
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 98

Financial Loss: $54,000/month, or 30 Monocles / Day


Post 1937, 0536 UTC, Sunday:
Monthly Subscription Accounts: 3733
Yearly Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 10
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 106

Financial Loss: $58,000/month, or 32 Monocles / Day

Post 2176, 1536 UTC, Sunday:
Monthly Subscription Accounts: 4145
(Not counting suspicious statistical outliers)
Yearly Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 13
PLEX Subscription Accounts(Personally Mentioned): 116

Financial Loss: $64,000/month, $770,000/year, or 35.6 Monocles / Day

Vyper Harkonnen
Posted - 2011.06.25 20:06:00 - [3]
 

Lol, loving this thread. Maybe if we put financial losses in terms CCP can understand, they'll start to get it.



Waiting for a thread on pairs of $1000 pants per day/week/month losses.

Kainulf
Minmatar
Posted - 2011.06.25 20:26:00 - [4]
 

Oh, I like this.

Hopefully we will keep pushing that number up.


SasRipper
H A V O C
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:14:00 - [5]
 

Nice!

Ron Whisper
Caldari
Undiscovered Force
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:16:00 - [6]
 

Folks,.. i urge EVERYONE to have a look at this Vid,... LISTEN TO THE SONG, READ THE TEXT and post this in your sig as a PROTEST to the path CCP is willing to walk.

CCP, YOU DON'T KNOW

Theocrates
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:16:00 - [7]
 

Unless of course they figure that as time goes on most of those unsubbs will puss out, or they will gain even so much as 5000 new accounts to replace them due to expanded CQ and Nex options.

Wolfie276
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:17:00 - [8]
 

These monocles became a ****ing meme on these forums or what?


In such a scenario, then jolly good. Continue.

Sokratesz
Rionnag Alba
Northern Coalition.
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:18:00 - [9]
 

I approve of this.

Icylce
Frost Palace
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:21:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Theocrates
Unless of course they figure that as time goes on most of those unsubbs will puss out, or they will gain even so much as 5000 new accounts to replace them due to expanded CQ and Nex options.

Expanded CQ in horizon of 4years? Expanded Nex options as sp for aur standing for aur? Now that will surely attract a lot of customers!

Merin Ryskin
Peregrine Industries
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:25:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Theocrates
Unless of course they figure that as time goes on most of those unsubbs will puss out, or they will gain even so much as 5000 new accounts to replace them due to expanded CQ and Nex options.


Except even with 5000 new accounts, it's still a loss compared to the 7500+ (5000 new + 2500+ not canceled) accounts they could have if they hadn't screwed up so badly. No matter how you look at it, this is costing CCP a lot of money, and that's not even counting the damage to their reputation.

As for the idea that EVE is going to see lots of new subscribers because of the ability to buy stuff for real money? I'd say nobody could be stupid enough to actually believe that, but that's exactly what some idiot dev at CCP said.

Quacka
Minmatar
Dark Tree Industries
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:30:00 - [12]
 

Hehe I kinda like this thread. Keep it updated.

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 21:58:00 - [13]
 

Up to date as per post 1682.

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 22:54:00 - [14]
 

Up to date as per post 1734.


Tobiaz
Spacerats
Posted - 2011.06.25 23:04:00 - [15]
 

I would like to comment though that obviously there is always a considerable margin of error. I do try to filter the most obvious double-poasters or trolls and some I've contacted for additional verification.

But in the end it doesn't matter. Even if the margin of error is like 25% (which is highly unlikely) CCP is still going to be in trouble if that thread keeps growing at the (increasing) speed it is now.

In my opinion the players simply don't realize how strong we are as a consumer group. Most of us can take a half year time-out without breaking a sweat, but CCP will sweat like a pig if its income gets halved for even a month.

52 MonocIes
52 Monocles
Posted - 2011.06.25 23:04:00 - [16]
 

Good thread, but I'd love the number to get greater than 52 lost monocles per day, how many unsubs do we need for that?

Vice Admiral Spreadsheet
Caldari
Posted - 2011.06.25 23:16:00 - [17]
 

You're forgetting several things:
1. How many of those unsubs will be permanent? Who has biomassed? I'd wager next to nobody.
2. How many of those unsubs are outright lies? Sure a lot of alts in that thread....
3. A lot of "accounts" are being counted as unsubs. 3x accounts for one subscription, you know.
4. The NeX store isn't just monocles

Rolling Eyes

Blackjack 3v3
Posted - 2011.06.25 23:30:00 - [18]
 

Originally by: Merin Ryskin
Originally by: Theocrates
Unless of course they figure that as time goes on most of those unsubbs will puss out, or they will gain even so much as 5000 new accounts to replace them due to expanded CQ and Nex options.


Except even with 5000 new accounts, it's still a loss compared to the 7500+ (5000 new + 2500+ not canceled) accounts they could have if they hadn't screwed up so badly. No matter how you look at it, this is costing CCP a lot of money, and that's not even counting the damage to their reputation.

As for the idea that EVE is going to see lots of new subscribers because of the ability to buy stuff for real money? I'd say nobody could be stupid enough to actually believe that, but that's exactly what some idiot dev at CCP said.


What reputation my friend this game became the joke of the MMO industry over night. I`m not talking about the community / forum reaction just google "eve online microtransactions" - it`s such a bad joke even players of other mmo games talk about it on their forum. Let`s not mention the gaming sites and what they say in regards to what this Sims Online became ... it was a game about space ships now it`s about 1000$ pants F.U.C.K. This

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.25 23:52:00 - [19]
 

Originally by: Vice Admiral Spreadsheet

Snip



1, 2, 3: You know what an "estimate" is, right?
4: It is the most easily recognizable item in the NeX. Not only as the main item for the first iteration of NeX(hence the Give Me Monocles or Give Me NeX! title), but also as a traditional status symbol for the rich and powerful("Monocle and Tophat"). If you have problems with that, convert the units to "full attire sold per day" or something by yourself.

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.26 00:03:00 - [20]
 

Thank you for the advice Tobiaz, I may reduce the degree of precision to accommodate such sources of errors.

52 Monocles, assuming $15/month for everyone, that will be around 6300 accounts unsubscribed.

Thread is up to date as of post 1779.

Roblight
The 0rphanage
Posted - 2011.06.26 00:05:00 - [21]
 

Edited by: Roblight on 26/06/2011 00:07:44
For those saying look at other stuff like cloths, I hope you like paying more for your virtual shirts then to buy a real shirt from CCP ShockedConfused

http://i.imgur.com/g3hEB.jpg

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.26 05:39:00 - [22]
 

Up to date as per post 1935.

Dakin Chang
Posted - 2011.06.26 06:02:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Vice Admiral Spreadsheet
You're forgetting several things:
1. How many of those unsubs will be permanent? Who has biomassed? I'd wager next to nobody.
2. How many of those unsubs are outright lies? Sure a lot of alts in that thread....
3. A lot of "accounts" are being counted as unsubs. 3x accounts for one subscription, you know.
4. The NeX store isn't just monocles

Ok, so lets say that only 1/5 of those cancellation numbers are permanent. And lets double the monthly revenue from NeX to include other items. That still comes out to $11,600 lost vs. $3600 gained.

Cyriel Longinus
Caldari
XERCORE
Posted - 2011.06.26 06:19:00 - [24]
 

Edited by: Cyriel Longinus on 26/06/2011 06:39:17


Originally by: Theocrates
Unless of course they figure that as time goes on most of those unsubbs will puss out, or they will gain even so much as 5000 new accounts to replace them due to expanded CQ and Nex options.


Consider the learning curve and that not everyone in this community are social anchors. The people that take on the thankless role of corp or alliance leadership are crucial nodes in the social networks within EVE and this community. When one quits EVE, there is exist a noticeable break in the links that connect individuals that are content to just follow along with their group in the pursuit of internet spaceship fun.

Directors, CEOs and Alliance Leaders are not one day old account holders. The best ones are leaders by example, databanks of knwoledge and experience. They are comprised of veteran players. Whom share knowledge with the next generation of players. They are the ones who write tutorials and mentor noobs. Remember, EVE is not something you can just grind to Level 50. No one follows day old account holder.

So if thousands of accounts unsub, it could be highly probably that a percentage of those unsubs are veteran players.
A community resource that perpetuates the existence of the community and the game.

In corporate speaks: They are promotional assets that take years to cultivate.

This game cannot recover those losses.

It's actually a fatal vulnerability in a micro transaction business model in EVE.
Other games do not skill train in real time.


I guess those fancy consultants forgot to mention that they have no real experience with a game like EVE to draw from. But hey, they are 'professionals' of the gaming industry, outsiders of this community and CCP. Consultants get paid regardless if the advice sucks and the client company goes under as result of it. If everything works out, they smile and say "I told you it would" and use the success to con the next sucker.



DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:36:00 - [25]
 

Up to date as per post 2176.

The amount of estimated financial loss has been increasing at a steady, and frightening rate. It's not even remotely funny anymore.


Bootleg Jack
Potters Field
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:38:00 - [26]
 

Edited by: Bootleg Jack on 26/06/2011 15:44:28
Edited by: Bootleg Jack on 26/06/2011 15:42:08
Translation: I suck and can't earn the ISK for an eye piece, I hope bad things happen to the people who made it cost so much.

Laughing WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


EDIT: Do you think all those subs were veterans? It will be awesome if all the cry babies have high SP.

DeftCrow Redriver
Gallente
Best Path Inc.
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:41:00 - [27]
 

Originally by: Bootleg Jack

Snip



I care nothing about monocles. It's CCP management's attitude I have trouble with. Hence putting the situation in units they can easily understand.

Blood Fart
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:42:00 - [28]
 

Originally by: DeftCrow Redriver

Financial Loss: $64,000/month, $770,000/year, or 35.6 Monocles / Day



OR 770 pairs of pants per/yr

Mutant Caldari
Caldari
Percussive Diplomacy
The Phoenix. Consortium
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:48:00 - [29]
 

Originally by: Bootleg Jack
Edited by: Bootleg Jack on 26/06/2011 15:44:28
Edited by: Bootleg Jack on 26/06/2011 15:42:08
Translation: I suck and can't earn the ISK for an eye piece, I hope bad things happen to the people who made it cost so much.

Laughing WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


EDIT: Do you think all those subs were veterans? It will be awesome if all the cry babies have high SP.


Hey br0, might wanna wipe the corner of your mouth. Got a little something white and viscous there. Did you just come from a meeting with Hilmar? Laughing

Bootleg Jack
Potters Field
Posted - 2011.06.26 15:56:00 - [30]
 

Originally by: DeftCrow Redriver
Originally by: Bootleg Jack

Snip



I care nothing about monocles. It's CCP management's attitude I have trouble with. Hence putting the situation in units they can easily understand.


Obviously you have never worked in a software company.

Here is how it works, the good ideas, they barely get writen up. Why? Because they are good ideas and it don't take a lot of politics to SELL the idea.

Bad ideas, like in that pdf, they get written up, why? Because they are bad ideas that most people reject out of hand, but the idea person wants to SELL his ideas to he writes them up in a document and circulates it like the ideas are real.

This is just part of the design game. If customers saw every stupid idea every designer has the computer industry would have never made it past the mini computers.

Quitting based on content that doesn't even exist is just plain stupid.

Second, even if the really dumb ideas get out, like buying ships with AUR, all you have to do is take your head our of your ass for about 15 seconds to figure out you can buy anything with ISK that you can buy with AUR since the currencies are freely convertable.

All all these threads are is fools and drama queens. Laughing



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