| Author |
Topic |
beautyispain |
Posted - 2010.06.27 18:35:00 - [ 1]
I wonder how many traders it took to buy up all the market at already double prices from before patch and place back on the market at double that (2500). Something tells me rocket fuel will go even higher as it takes forever to produce and production output is in no relation to the amount needed for missile production. E.g. it would take a single PI setup 10 days to produce enough rocket fuel for a 10 run scourge fury heavy missile! |
Kudlow N'cramer
World Eaters Excavation |
Posted - 2010.06.27 19:59:00 - [ 2]
Why does it take forever to produce? We still have a huge stockpile as everything it makes we also pre-bought and haven't run out. However, I have no issues getting the P1 material it takes to make it. Maybe I'll put aside some production to make it if it's that sought after. |
Victor Maximus
Aeon Of Strife
Discord. |
Posted - 2010.06.27 21:51:00 - [ 3]
Its certainly going to climb higher. Just taking a look at the Amarr market rocket fuel is averaging around 5k, however the value of the components needed to make rocket fuel through PI come out to be a bit over 9k.
The stockpiles are quite possibly keeping the price lower than it should be. |
Salarc
Native Freshfood
|
Posted - 2010.06.27 22:30:00 - [ 4]
Well I am attempting to fix the Jita price :p. |
Gabriel Rosencrantz
Gods of Freight |
Posted - 2010.06.27 22:58:00 - [ 5]
|
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.27 23:01:00 - [ 6]
Edited by: Grozen on 27/06/2010 23:03:04 Originally by: Victor Maximus
Its certainly going to climb higher. Just taking a look at the Amarr market rocket fuel is averaging around 5k, however the value of the components needed to make rocket fuel through PI come out to be a bit over 9k.
The stockpiles are quite possibly keeping the price lower than it should be.
Bingo.Most people don't seem to get it but things as they are atm will not remain much longer.It has already been voiced that the present supplies are not as big as people thought they are.Sure give it 3-4-5months but it will be gone. Many npc goods are not stockpiled for years.When all that happens the price will climb to its production value or higher.People are too afraid to jump the gun now and later on...there will alot of: " omg dude i missed a gold mine faak my life emo suicide"  |
Cergorach
Amarr
The Helix Foundation
|
Posted - 2010.06.27 23:15:00 - [ 7]
Also keep in mind that a lot of folks don't have billions lying around, we put them to use and long term investments aren't our cup of tea. I was lucky enough to buy around 700k worth of fuel at the last moment with a little bit of 'spare' cash @~750isk a piece. I haven't sold it yet in Jita because it's a bit bulky to mover around. If your wondering what 100k fuel @15k isk is doing in Metropolis, that's mine ;-) I wonder when it will sell... |
Salarc
Native Freshfood
|
Posted - 2010.06.27 23:28:00 - [ 8]
I have about 10bil invested in PI mats currently. |
Bobmaster206 |
Posted - 2010.06.28 01:27:00 - [ 9]
And you all know what increasing the cost of rocket fuel will do right? Increase T2 Missle prices!!! Drake/Tengu not so good now!  so... Most used ammo type in PvE price going up means less profit from bounties and less money for PvPers to burn, so possibly less PvP, Big panic ensues as nobody can buy ammo, and then the market balances and everybody forgets about this post... |
beautyispain |
Posted - 2010.06.28 11:39:00 - [ 10]
Edited by: beautyispain on 28/06/2010 11:54:47 Originally by: Cergorach
If your wondering what 100k fuel @15k isk is doing in Metropolis, that's mine ;-) I wonder when it will sell...
So you're the one! :) I was wondering who the hell was so optimistic, I was so wrong ... :) Originally by: Bobmaster206
And you all know what increasing the cost of rocket fuel will do right? Increase T2 Missle prices!!! Drake/Tengu not so good now!
so... Most used ammo type in PvE price going up means less profit from bounties and less money for PvPers to burn, so possibly less PvP, Big panic ensues as nobody can buy ammo, and then the market balances and everybody forgets about this post...
Correct, T2 missile prices will skyrocket as rocketfuel is the largest cost factor |
Scout Ops
Red Federation |
Posted - 2010.06.28 11:56:00 - [ 11]
Buy it all... a fair price according to my calculations is 15k isk per unit.
Unless CCP tweeks PI production rate and nerfs it back.
|
beautyispain |
Posted - 2010.06.28 12:03:00 - [ 12]
If rocket fuel reaches 15k/unit then to reach previous margins, producers will need to raise missile prices by 4x !!
I am predicting at least doubling of T2 missile prices in the coming weeks and up to 4x next month. Producers would have to cut their margins considerably for the price to stay. |
Eastern Promise |
Posted - 2010.06.28 12:07:00 - [ 13]
Originally by: beautyispain
If rocket fuel reaches 15k/unit then to reach previous margins, producers will need to raise missile prices by 4x !!
I am predicting at least doubling of T2 missile prices in the coming weeks and up to 4x next month. Producers would have to cut their margins considerably for the price to stay.
Pump and dump? |
Khun SP
Paramite Factories |
Posted - 2010.06.28 12:11:00 - [ 14]
According to this sheet, rocket fuel costs about 2000isk per unit to produce Linkagesomeone is doing insane isk on this macromanipulation |
Ratchman |
Posted - 2010.06.28 12:32:00 - [ 15]
This topic will kep reappearing, but the market will sort itself out in the long run. Stockpiles run out, and many people will jump into the production of it, drooling over those big profit margins that will suddenly vanish when everyone else follows.
Money-making opportunities are bandwagons, and people do jump on them. Eventually, this will force down the price but, for the meantime, some people will get very rich from it.
Entrepeneurs usually prosper because they identify a gap in the market and exploit it. This is high-risk, but it can pay off massively. The majority tend to play it safer, which means they hop on the bandwagon, which means lower profits (but less chance of failure). The truly stupid don't identify when the money pool has all dried up. Of course, once it becomes deeply unprofitable, people stop doing it, and it gets more expensive again.
If you desperately need the materials in the short term, you are going to have to either shell out, adapt to using something else, or start manufacturing the resource yourself. Those people who are so desperate as to pay double the rate, well you're exactly the kind of people that these speculators prey on. If you held off, you could force the price down, but that depends on other people not being more desperate than you.
Nature may be red in tooth and claw, but so is capitalism. |
beautyispain |
Posted - 2010.06.28 13:01:00 - [ 16]
Originally by: Ratchman
This topic will kep reappearing, but the market will sort itself out in the long run. Stockpiles run out, and many people will jump into the production of it, drooling over those big profit margins that will suddenly vanish when everyone else follows.
Money-making opportunities are bandwagons, and people do jump on them. Eventually, this will force down the price but, for the meantime, some people will get very rich from it.
Entrepeneurs usually prosper because they identify a gap in the market and exploit it. This is high-risk, but it can pay off massively. The majority tend to play it safer, which means they hop on the bandwagon, which means lower profits (but less chance of failure). The truly stupid don't identify when the money pool has all dried up. Of course, once it becomes deeply unprofitable, people stop doing it, and it gets more expensive again.
If you desperately need the materials in the short term, you are going to have to either shell out, adapt to using something else, or start manufacturing the resource yourself. Those people who are so desperate as to pay double the rate, well you're exactly the kind of people that these speculators prey on. If you held off, you could force the price down, but that depends on other people not being more desperate than you.
Nature may be red in tooth and claw, but so is capitalism.
I think this post pretty much sums up why I love eve and it's player base... It's pretty obvious, at least in the market and science forum, there are plenty of well educated people playing this game  |
beautyispain |
Posted - 2010.06.28 18:14:00 - [ 17]
|
Droxlyn
Caldari |
Posted - 2010.06.28 19:08:00 - [ 18]
|
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.28 19:17:00 - [ 19]
Originally by: Droxlyn
Edited by: Droxlyn on 28/06/2010 19:07:57
If you pretend all p0 (raw) materals are 5 isk each, Rocket Fuel comes out to 12k/each. The prices are trending that way in my eyes.
I prefer my chart: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en
The yellow boxes are where I enter the market prices.
Drox
so basically anything for rfuel under 10k is steal?Guidance systems 45k each?Damn if that comes true then  |
RAW23 |
Posted - 2010.06.28 21:11:00 - [ 20]
|
Reetoc Kraace |
Posted - 2010.06.29 07:39:00 - [ 21]
Edited by: Reetoc Kraace on 29/06/2010 07:39:36 Originally by: Droxlyn
If you pretend all p0 (raw) materals are 5 isk each, large control towers cost 2 billion each.
Fixed that for you. That price is doing the same thing as you did - assigning a single value to all products in any given tier. R0 is worth no more than 0.000083 isk / unit. |
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.29 09:28:00 - [ 22]
|
Jack Icegaard
The Omega Project |
Posted - 2010.06.29 10:00:00 - [ 23]
Edited by: Jack Icegaard on 29/06/2010 10:12:47 Originally by: beautyispain
If rocket fuel reaches 15k/unit then to reach previous margins, producers will need to raise missile prices by 4x !!
I am predicting at least doubling of T2 missile prices in the coming weeks and up to 4x next month. Producers would have to cut their margins considerably for the price to stay.
Let me see.. the T2 HAM BPC I'm looking at (ME -4) needs 12 units of rocket fuel for every batch of 5k missiles. Thats a whooping 0.0024 rocket fuel per missile. Lets say that the price of rocket fuel increase with 15k isk from the NPC price before PI. So one T2 HAM will cost 15000*0.0024 = 36 isk more to produce. That should result in an increase of missile prices with about 10-20%. Of course, it may be different for other T2 missiles like heavy missiles, I haven't checked. But I do think you are very much overestimating the effect rocket fuel prices will have on T2 missile prices. |
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.29 10:11:00 - [ 24]
Originally by: Jack Icegaard
Edited by: Jack Icegaard on 29/06/2010 10:04:06
Originally by: beautyispain
If rocket fuel reaches 15k/unit then to reach previous margins, producers will need to raise missile prices by 4x !!
I am predicting at least doubling of T2 missile prices in the coming weeks and up to 4x next month. Producers would have to cut their margins considerably for the price to stay.
Let me see.. the T2 HAM BPC I'm looking at (ME -4) needs 12 units of Rocket fuel for every batch of 5k missiles. Thats a whooping 0.0024 Rocket fuel for every missile. Lets say that the price of Rocket fuel increase with 15k isk from the NPC price before PI. So one T2 HAM will cost 15000*0.0024 = 36 isk more to produce.
That should result in an increase of missile prices with about 10-20%. Of course, it may be different for other T2 missiles like Heavy Missiles, I haven't checked. But I do think you are very much overestimating the effect rocket fuel prices will have on T2 missile prices.
Rocket fuel is also used in the production of camera drones.So theres your other demand did you really think it would cost only as much as the production value?Most producers won't sell unless they are making least 20% profit. |
Jack Icegaard
The Omega Project |
Posted - 2010.06.29 10:28:00 - [ 25]
Edited by: Jack Icegaard on 29/06/2010 10:33:10 Originally by: Grozen
Rocket fuel is also used in the production of camera drones.So theres your other demand did you really think it would cost only as much as the production value?Most producers won't sell unless they are making least 20% profit.
Sorry, I don't think you understand my post. Im calculating the cost increase for producing T2 HAMs if rocket fuel price increases with 15k isk per unit compared to the old NPC price. Today you can buy rocket fuel for 2-3k isk per unit. Before PI, NPC prices for rocket fuel were somewhere around 600 isk/unit IIRC. In short, how much more will it cost to produce a T2 HAMs if rocket fuel prices increases ~26 times from old NPC price. |
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.29 10:38:00 - [ 26]
Gotcha but that's the main point rf is probably going to increase by the amount you specified.Also nobody can tell for sure before the artificial supply runs out. |
RAW23 |
Posted - 2010.06.29 10:51:00 - [ 27]
|
Kithran |
Posted - 2010.06.29 11:15:00 - [ 28]
Another point - how much of the sales/purchases of npc goods were people buying from npc a, transporting to another station and selling to npc b? This would decrease the useage per day.
Kithran |
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.29 12:27:00 - [ 29]
Originally by: Kithran
Another point - how much of the sales/purchases of npc goods were people buying from npc a, transporting to another station and selling to npc b? This would decrease the useage per day.
Kithran
Doubt it had any impact before, there were much better things to trade besides rf. |
Droxlyn
Caldari |
Posted - 2010.06.29 13:56:00 - [ 30]
Originally by: Reetoc Kraace
Edited by: Reetoc Kraace on 29/06/2010 07:39:36
Originally by: Droxlyn
If you pretend all p0 (raw) materals are 5 isk each, large control towers cost 2 billion each.
Fixed that for you. That price is doing the same thing as you did - assigning a single value to all products in any given tier.
R0 is worth no more than 0.000083 isk / unit.
Hmm, I added to the chart the Amarr Large Tower and I got a 377,580,000.00 ISK price at 5 isk each. Or are you talking about a fully decked out tower and modules? Trying the current market values of p4s, they're at 359,711,542.50 ISK. Your value made P1 products worth an isk each and had horribly low prices. If that becomes the price of these things, there will be a monumental shortage pretty quickly. Drox |
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